Mōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, December 12 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus and Pick ‘n’ Mix are:
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has announced a Cabinet decision to tender for two new Cook Strait ferries won’t happen until March. An actual order is not likely until late next year, before delivery in 2029 of smaller ferries than the iRex ones that were to be built this year for delivery next year, but were cancelled a year ago by Willis. She wouldn’t give a cost estimate or confirm they would be ‘rail enabled’1 rather than ‘rail-compatible’, but David Seymour let slip the ferries and port rebuilding would cost around $1.5 billion.
The Wellington Regional Council and Marlborough District Council would then have to decide to borrow and invest in the less-long-lasting and less-resilient port facilities for the (maybe) rail-enabled ferries were disappointed about the lack of certainty. Mainfreight, retailers and unions also said they were frustrated by the delays and uncertainty, all because the Government won’t use its strong balance sheet to borrow and invest in infrastructure needed to cope with un-forecast population growth, quakes and climate events over the next 50 to 100 years.
Seymour celebrated his success in getting the Government to essentially decide to privatise the Interislander by setting up a partly-state-owned private company to buy the ferries. He is now at odds in Cabinet with new Rail Minister Winston Peters, who wants to retain the ferries and keep them rail-enabled.
In another case of Government decisions to push costs and borrowing to councils that are pushing up inflation for consumers, Christchurch City Council is planning to put up bus fares 50% after funding cuts by the Government, which is focused on motorway building. The Picton and Wellington Ports are expected to put up fees for freight operators using new facilities, while the new company owning the ferries would have to increase ticket prices to pay for higher finance costs and dividends for private shareholders. All would increase inflation and living costs.
Road traffic figures for November show the per-capita recession is set to extend well into 2025. See more in the charts of the day below. Mortgage brokers also report a slowing of borrowing by landlords in December as concerns about job losses and DTI restrictions on lending start kicking in. The Government is depending on household borrowing to take over from Government borrowing next year to restart the economy.
Australian scientists said they appalled at the Government’s decision to cancel pure research funding for humanities and social sciences, saying it was necessary to deal with the challenges of a modern economy where private and public investors build infrastructure and businesses to increase productivity and real wages. See more in the quote of the day below.
(Normally at this point we would have a paywall for free subscribers and only paying subscribers could both listen to the Dawn Chorus podcast above and read the analysis and detail below in the Pick ‘n’ Mix. But during our ‘Gravy Day Fortnight’ until Dec 22, we have opened everything up for all immediately to give everyone a full taste of the public interest journalism your subscription supports. And here’s our ‘Gravy Day Fortnight’ deal until Dec 22.)
The best of the rest
I’m up from 3am daily and read around all sorts of news websites2 to get a sense of what’s happening in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate, both here and overseas3.
Here’s my top six in the pick ‘n’ mix as of 7.30 am on Thursday, December 12 for all subscribers. The full list for paying subscribers is below the paywall fold (usually):
Top 6 links in Thursday’s pick ‘n’ mix:
Politics & Tax: Ngarewa-Packer stands by $200b 'Soviet' Capital Gains Tax NZ Herald’s Thomas Coughlan
Population & Migration: Residence visa approval numbers up 59% compared to pre-Covid levels Interest’s Greg Ninness
Climate & Economy: Mobil’s owner Exxon sets 5-year plan to boost oil and gas output by 18% Reuters
Column or Analysis: Transport & Climate: Wayne Brown’s terrible plan to abolish one of Auckland Council’s best agencies Column by NZ Herald-$$$’s Simon Wilson
Climate & Banking: BNZ wants out of gas stations by 2030, farmer lobby group not happy Interest’s Dan Brunskill
Austerity & Science: Researchers pen scathing open letter to Minister over Marsden Fund changes RNZ
The full pick ‘n’ mix for for paying subscribers (usually)
Scoops this morning
Environment & Politics: ECan councillors briefed in private by vested interests Newsroom Pro-$$$’s David Williams
Politics & Environment: Winton 'stands to gain millions': MP BusinessDesk-$$$’s Maria Slade
Justice & Diplomacy: ‘A lifetime of trauma’: Young women indecently assaulted by foreign officials. A Stuff investigation can finally reveal two men, who were visiting on official business, indecently assaulted two young women at a Wellington restaurant. Stuff’s Olivia Wannan and Paula Penfold
Transport & Infrastructure Hillside future‘ vague’ after announcement ODT’s Matthew Littlewood
News breaking here and overseas this morning
Transport & Economy: Mainfreight calls progress on ferries 'frustratingly slow' RNZ’s Morning Report
Transport & Politics: Seymour's comments on ferry plan 'unhelpful', Peters says RNZ
Transport & Cost of Living: Canterbury bus fares to increase by 50% The Press’ Will Harvie
Economy & Austerity: 'It has never been this hard' - Hawkes Bay's economic woes revealed in new report RNZ’s Alexa Cook
Poverty & Health: 'Tidal wave': Cocaine, methamphetamine use soars RNZ
Economy & Trade: Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom Reuters
Geopolitics & EU: Germany on path for early election after Scholz requests confidence vote Reuters
Solutions & good news
Housing & Transport: Sixty-six cars to be stacked 20 levels high at new apartment block NZ Herald-$$$’s Anne Gibson
Housing & Climate: Napier’s new flood maps could lead to more homes built on piles, says architect NZ Herald-$$$’s Greg Hamilton Irvine
Costs of living & Banking: Commerce Commission to push surcharges 'right down' but 'not to zero' Interest’s Gareth Vaughan
Deep-dives, features, interviews & explainers
Politics & Leadership: Luxon on cross-party collabs, 'corporate speak', and Hipkins: 'He was a terrible PM' Luxon interviewed by NZ Herald’s Chelsea Daniels
Wages & Equality: An 'embarrassing' pay gap, and the government's plan to fix it RNZ/Newsroom’s The Detail
Austerity & Justice: Lawyers' worried for safety in 'pressure cooker' court houses RNZ’s Nine to Noon
Op-Eds, columns & analysis
Transport & Politics: Ferry flop - Govt reveals it still hasn't sorted its ship out Column by NZ Herald-$$$’s Georgina Campbell
Politics & Leadership: 'Political desperation in his voice' - why Luxon's messaging isn't landing Op-Ed by Sarah Maguire in NZ Herald-$$$
Politics & Transport: Nicola Willis delivers a masterclass in incompetence Column by Jack McDonald in The Post
Politics & Performance: Ranking National's 20 first-term MPs Column by NZ Herald-$$$’s Audrey Young
Politics & Economy: Dairy should be NZ’s economic growth engine not immigration Column by Richard Prebble in NZ Herald-$$$
Quote du Jour: What Australian scientists think
The Australian Council of Learned Academies took the unusual step yesterday of putting out a statement on slashing of funding for pure science research via the Marsden Fund.
Australia invests a lot more public and private research and development and in business and infrastructure investment and worker training. That’s why it’s productivity growth has been higher than New Zealand’s over the last 30 years and has widened the real wage advantage in Australia to more than 30%. It’s why well over 100 New Zealand residents a day are leaving permanently to work and live in Australia.
Here’s what their scientists think:
“The pressing problems of our time – climate change and biodiversity crises; managing the challenges posed by Artificial Intelligence; the worsening crisis of misinformation and disinformation; managing geo-political tensions – require a skilled and adaptive workforce, and a robust multi-disciplinary sovereign research capability.
“As is clear in Australia’s 2024 National Science and Research Priorities, our national challenges are complex and intertwined. Solutions grounded in research across a broad range of disciplines are key to addressing those challenges and to adapting to rapidly changing contexts.
Social and cultural research must go hand-in-hand with scientific and technological research to realise societal and economic benefits; there are no two-ways about it.” The Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA) statement via Dr Katherine Woodthorpe, Chair ACOLA and President of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering
Charts du Jour: Not-so-much vroom vroom
ANZ’s Truckometer measures of light and heavy traffic per capita are good leading indicators of GDP spending and GDP Production respectively. Both are showing at least another six months of recession in per capita terms.
Cartoon du Jour: Will it float?
Timeline-cleansing nature pic
Mā te wā
Bernard
‘Rail-enabled’ means the containers can roll onto the ferry with wagons, rather than being delayed for half an hour being shifted first to trucks, which then drive on. That less-efficient and slower option is called ‘rail-compatible’. Logistics experts and climate analysts see rail-enabled as far superior and keeps the North and South Island rail networks connected. Moving to ‘rail-compatible’ is also estimated to add an extra 6,000 trucks to the road.
Links with -$$$ are to paywalled websites. Some sites have both paywalled and non paywalled articels (The Post/Press currently, the NZ Herald, Newsroom & ODT)
I subscribe to and check FT-$,WallStreetJournal−$, Bloomberg-$,WashingtonPost−$, New York Times-$, TheEconomist−$,RNZ,1News,Stuff,ThePost−$,ThePress−$,BusinessDesk−$,Politik−$,NZHerald−$ & NZ Herald; Interest.co.nz, Newsroom, Newsroom Pro-$,AFR−$, NBR-$$$ and The Spinoff. The Press is currently not paywalled. I will include gift links where I can (some from the likes of FT-$$$ only work a few times) and if I have any left (Bloomberg-Misplaced &Misplaced &$ have limits)
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