My observation is that Peters won the inter-island ferry debate. For that the South Island has much to thank him. By publicly mentioning the date of the 11th of December for an announcement maybe the old fox outwitted his cabinet colleagues? His interview on RNZ this morning was masterly. Seymour has been outmaneuvered with his privatize plans. Peters is a conservative with a small "c" which is precisely the value base this project demands.
This government’s concept of plan is better value for money if (cost of 2 new ferries plus cost of upgrading shore facilities plus cost of maintaining existing ferries from 2026 until 2029 plus sunk cost of Project iRex plus break fee to Hyundai ship builders plus increased natural hazard and climate change resilience risk cost of reduced engineering specifications for upgraded shore facilities) is less than (the completed cost of Project iReX with its 2 new ships operating by 2026).
Note, this formula is incomplete, and probably understates the actual costs and benefits. It does not include the extra road maintenance for freight being transported by truck that would shift to being transported by rail if and when the new ferries are operational, any extra rail freight cost and operating cost of ferries that are not fully rail-enabled, and it does not include the increased risk of a maritime disaster with keeping the existing ferries running from 2026 to 2029.
It looks very much like this government's concept of a plan is going to cost way more on many levels than Project iReX.
It is noticeable that the government's statements about relative cost are based on incomplete cost comparisons - likely to be deliberate misinformation in my view.
with only one rail-enabled ferry at the moment, the current amount of freight and roading infra maintenance from Picton to CHCH that carries through from 2026 to 2029 also needs to be included in the opportunity cost? ( I am not sure how much freight is going across on the other non rail trips. )
DTI guard rails only applies to existing houses. It does not apply to New Builds - so in theory could still get investors, and FHB, buying new with really high DTI borrowing.
A competent minister of finance who subscribes to the Atlas Network colonisation mantra and privatisation of public assets, (however misguided), would surely offer the deal of ships already under construction at a bargain price to a private investor. That would have delivered state of the art infrastructure the country needs without the break fees, inflation cost of a new start and extra 5 to 8 years delay, with associated safety and maintenance costs of an aging fleet.
But we don't have a competent minister of finance, do we.
She graduated with a first-class honours degree in English literature from Victoria University of Wellington in 2003, and a post-graduate diploma in journalism from the University of Canterbury in 2017.
Hi Alan, the sheer size of the vessels means the landside infra costs is the issue. tack on inability for kiwirail to locate the terminal in wellington in a more advantageous location closer to the other end of the rail yard makes the wellington end ridiculously expensive especially needing to be built to seismic levels that far exceed the current terminal ( and most buildings in wellington). There were also going to be issues with navigating these monsters through the channel, requiring changes to the navigation rules. In my mind, 4 smaller rail-enabled ferries would make transport sense and allow for more flexibility when service intervals are required. smaller boats wouldn't make the land-side engineering much cheaper, but it might mean a shorter build time. cluster all around.
So how the actual f*%k has Nicola Willis delivered? I used to think she was one of the better "people" in the National party, but obviously she just hasn't been given a chance to show her true blue colours. As a Wellingtonian, I'm sorry NZ that you have to listen to her.
2029 before we have reliable ferries is disturbing and bizarre unless a govt ploy to create an opening for privatisation, with all the concerns that would bring, including potential for monopoly, or a PPP. The current ones, both Interislander and Blueridge, are known to be unsafe and we don't have strong enough tugs to help in a disaster such as the near one by Red Rocks.
Any chance @bernard can get an interview with that trucking joker on RNZ checkpoint and ask him if he’s up for paying billions for the extra roading? And does he understand that if there’s a market for infrastructure use, spare capacity drives prices down rather than up?! This doesn’t feel like a nation worth investing in?
So the spend on Willis's ferries is $1.5 billion + the cancellation cost of iRex, say $1 billion and delay to 2029ish. iRex was going to cost around $3 billion-ish, so we get inferior ships, ports to pay for infrastructure, inefficient movement of freight off & then on trucks etc. etc.
So how is this a better deal than what was already in build?
And these people are the first to say how bad the Labour government was.
So where does that put their own level of incompetency?
I thought the Labour government would prevaricate but honestly Willis and the coalition government is worse. The new ferries .. no decision. The costs of breaking the Labour government contract .... no decision. The cost of new port facilities in Picton . .... no decision. The cost of new port facilities in Wellington ... no decision.
The biggest joke from the so-called ferry announcement yesterday was Nicola Willis saying.. “I’ve delivered. I’ve discharged my duty to New Zealand.” The only thing she was discharging was a bunch of BS! No price, no timeline, no costings and Winston Peters is told 3 hours before the media session he is going to be named the new Minister of Rail. What a joke!
There is no way National can go to the next election & win with a leader as unpopular as Luxon and a Finance Minister as clearly incompetent as Willis
Most voters have very short memories. They tend to look at the carrots dangled in the last six months.
The easiest election for me was 1990. I'd been overseas for more than 2 years and came back to full-on Rogernomics. No one else in my peer group who'd been here for it all seemed to notice what had happened, and what hadn't been delivered.
By Feb or March 1991, when I was still looking for a permanent job rather than a day here or there, and was considering signing up for the Unemployment Benefit (whenever that budget was delivered, which I listened to on the radio) I was regretting voting National. What they were planning on doing wasn't in any manifesto when I voted.
That experience of unemployment has affected me ever since. Not eager to take a punt on an opportunity. Not eager to buy a house when your partner is on "roll over" contracts that actually, might not automatically roll over.
Spot on Bernard, you’ve nailed NZ’s biggest (by far) strategic question, which is how does the nation pivot from its non-sustainable business model of houses with bits tacked on to something that is sustainable, prosperous, and future-proof? To amplify the challenge many of those ‘bits’ are sunset industries with vulnerability to climate change. Add in declining productivity and falling living standards and the strategic challenge intensifies. Couple that scenario to a political system captured by ‘capital’ and short-termism and the need for clear-eyed, visionary, leadership literally screams. Sadly, the NZ Inc ship would appear to be heading for the rocks as the economic navigation-system appears to be impossible to reset.
The ferry debacle is why I despair of having any competent government in New Zealand. Labour had done well with moving to new, purpose built ferries with considerable rail capacity, but with one major flaw - the ferries were too big for Tory Channel and the infrastructure needed to load and unload. The cost was high because of running down our infrastructure over the last forty years and because private contractors in NZ appear to have worked out how to milk the public purse. Now we have the three-legged monster. Someone tell Seymour what happened last time NZ Railways was privatised. There is also a competition as to who can be the biggest hypocrite. At the moment I have Nicola in front. We might eventually end up with new ferries of a suitable size, but I suspect unable to cope with capacity in 2030. I doubt that suitable infrastructure will result. All because we hated anything Labour did. Nothing about this has been evidence based or rational. I’m sure the consultants will be very happy with what the taxpayer has donated to them.
I hate to be seen to defend Seymour but when Fay Richwhite purchased NZ Rail he was 10. Too many politicians these days have not heard of the old quote of "without a knowledge of history, you're bound to repeat it". I think the best thing would be to leave Seymour to Winston. He's still got his old butchers mincing machine at the back of his office I bet.
Ha, Garry. Seymour is very familiar with this period of NZ history. His main party benefactors were predators who made out with their fortunes with the privatisation of telecom, although I am sure his version of it is very much informed by the winners and not the losers in those transactions.
But the cruise ships that go in several times a week are much longer than the ferries, up to 300 metres or more. The proposed rail enabled ferries were 35 metres longer than Aratere, which is about 180 metres long .
That was the Ferry announcement when you don’t have a Ferry announcement. Nicolas Willis should be deeply embarrassed by how badly she has handled this but I suspect her ego is too large. I cannot believe she believes she has discharged her duty to NZ. Perhaps she should have approached the owners of the 21 vessels (Toyotas obviously) world wide that are mission capable for the cross strait role before binning the ship building contract? I truly despair of her and this Government. What to do?
What a mess the ferries are turning out to be!
Small correction - it's ECan that sets the bus fares, not the Christchurch City Council.
Willis is telling fairy tales if she thinks the ferries will be in service by 2029
My observation is that Peters won the inter-island ferry debate. For that the South Island has much to thank him. By publicly mentioning the date of the 11th of December for an announcement maybe the old fox outwitted his cabinet colleagues? His interview on RNZ this morning was masterly. Seymour has been outmaneuvered with his privatize plans. Peters is a conservative with a small "c" which is precisely the value base this project demands.
This government’s concept of plan is better value for money if (cost of 2 new ferries plus cost of upgrading shore facilities plus cost of maintaining existing ferries from 2026 until 2029 plus sunk cost of Project iRex plus break fee to Hyundai ship builders plus increased natural hazard and climate change resilience risk cost of reduced engineering specifications for upgraded shore facilities) is less than (the completed cost of Project iReX with its 2 new ships operating by 2026).
Note, this formula is incomplete, and probably understates the actual costs and benefits. It does not include the extra road maintenance for freight being transported by truck that would shift to being transported by rail if and when the new ferries are operational, any extra rail freight cost and operating cost of ferries that are not fully rail-enabled, and it does not include the increased risk of a maritime disaster with keeping the existing ferries running from 2026 to 2029.
It looks very much like this government's concept of a plan is going to cost way more on many levels than Project iReX.
It is noticeable that the government's statements about relative cost are based on incomplete cost comparisons - likely to be deliberate misinformation in my view.
It’s expensive being cheap is one of those basic lessons we never seem to learn. I’ve seen more financial wisdom from teenagers than this Minister.
with only one rail-enabled ferry at the moment, the current amount of freight and roading infra maintenance from Picton to CHCH that carries through from 2026 to 2029 also needs to be included in the opportunity cost? ( I am not sure how much freight is going across on the other non rail trips. )
DTI guard rails only applies to existing houses. It does not apply to New Builds - so in theory could still get investors, and FHB, buying new with really high DTI borrowing.
Thinking back to that great line ‘no ships Sherlock’ I have the descriptor for Nicola’s ferry-speak, Bullship
The mainland is being railroaded, I'm astounded the entire south island isn't out on the streets
A competent minister of finance who subscribes to the Atlas Network colonisation mantra and privatisation of public assets, (however misguided), would surely offer the deal of ships already under construction at a bargain price to a private investor. That would have delivered state of the art infrastructure the country needs without the break fees, inflation cost of a new start and extra 5 to 8 years delay, with associated safety and maintenance costs of an aging fleet.
But we don't have a competent minister of finance, do we.
She graduated with a first-class honours degree in English literature from Victoria University of Wellington in 2003, and a post-graduate diploma in journalism from the University of Canterbury in 2017.
I suppose that qualifies her for creative language that another commentator has described as bullship.
Hi Alan, the sheer size of the vessels means the landside infra costs is the issue. tack on inability for kiwirail to locate the terminal in wellington in a more advantageous location closer to the other end of the rail yard makes the wellington end ridiculously expensive especially needing to be built to seismic levels that far exceed the current terminal ( and most buildings in wellington). There were also going to be issues with navigating these monsters through the channel, requiring changes to the navigation rules. In my mind, 4 smaller rail-enabled ferries would make transport sense and allow for more flexibility when service intervals are required. smaller boats wouldn't make the land-side engineering much cheaper, but it might mean a shorter build time. cluster all around.
So how the actual f*%k has Nicola Willis delivered? I used to think she was one of the better "people" in the National party, but obviously she just hasn't been given a chance to show her true blue colours. As a Wellingtonian, I'm sorry NZ that you have to listen to her.
2029 before we have reliable ferries is disturbing and bizarre unless a govt ploy to create an opening for privatisation, with all the concerns that would bring, including potential for monopoly, or a PPP. The current ones, both Interislander and Blueridge, are known to be unsafe and we don't have strong enough tugs to help in a disaster such as the near one by Red Rocks.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/how-the-interislanders-kaitaki-ferry-narrowly-avoided-disaster/IBR3D3Q3KJD6FNJ6ABBH4P24VQ/
Any chance @bernard can get an interview with that trucking joker on RNZ checkpoint and ask him if he’s up for paying billions for the extra roading? And does he understand that if there’s a market for infrastructure use, spare capacity drives prices down rather than up?! This doesn’t feel like a nation worth investing in?
Yes I was quite astounded by that chaps comments ..ACT voter ??
So the spend on Willis's ferries is $1.5 billion + the cancellation cost of iRex, say $1 billion and delay to 2029ish. iRex was going to cost around $3 billion-ish, so we get inferior ships, ports to pay for infrastructure, inefficient movement of freight off & then on trucks etc. etc.
So how is this a better deal than what was already in build?
And these people are the first to say how bad the Labour government was.
So where does that put their own level of incompetency?
I thought the Labour government would prevaricate but honestly Willis and the coalition government is worse. The new ferries .. no decision. The costs of breaking the Labour government contract .... no decision. The cost of new port facilities in Picton . .... no decision. The cost of new port facilities in Wellington ... no decision.
This government is hopeless.
The biggest joke from the so-called ferry announcement yesterday was Nicola Willis saying.. “I’ve delivered. I’ve discharged my duty to New Zealand.” The only thing she was discharging was a bunch of BS! No price, no timeline, no costings and Winston Peters is told 3 hours before the media session he is going to be named the new Minister of Rail. What a joke!
There is no way National can go to the next election & win with a leader as unpopular as Luxon and a Finance Minister as clearly incompetent as Willis
Most voters have very short memories. They tend to look at the carrots dangled in the last six months.
The easiest election for me was 1990. I'd been overseas for more than 2 years and came back to full-on Rogernomics. No one else in my peer group who'd been here for it all seemed to notice what had happened, and what hadn't been delivered.
By Feb or March 1991, when I was still looking for a permanent job rather than a day here or there, and was considering signing up for the Unemployment Benefit (whenever that budget was delivered, which I listened to on the radio) I was regretting voting National. What they were planning on doing wasn't in any manifesto when I voted.
That experience of unemployment has affected me ever since. Not eager to take a punt on an opportunity. Not eager to buy a house when your partner is on "roll over" contracts that actually, might not automatically roll over.
Spot on Bernard, you’ve nailed NZ’s biggest (by far) strategic question, which is how does the nation pivot from its non-sustainable business model of houses with bits tacked on to something that is sustainable, prosperous, and future-proof? To amplify the challenge many of those ‘bits’ are sunset industries with vulnerability to climate change. Add in declining productivity and falling living standards and the strategic challenge intensifies. Couple that scenario to a political system captured by ‘capital’ and short-termism and the need for clear-eyed, visionary, leadership literally screams. Sadly, the NZ Inc ship would appear to be heading for the rocks as the economic navigation-system appears to be impossible to reset.
Seems as though the ferry replacement will be an Ongoing Saga with too many dead rats on the menu.
Can’t stop thinking of Min of Finance as Alice in Wonderland. She’s just taken the Duchesses ferry baby outside and it’s turned into a pig.
The ferry debacle is why I despair of having any competent government in New Zealand. Labour had done well with moving to new, purpose built ferries with considerable rail capacity, but with one major flaw - the ferries were too big for Tory Channel and the infrastructure needed to load and unload. The cost was high because of running down our infrastructure over the last forty years and because private contractors in NZ appear to have worked out how to milk the public purse. Now we have the three-legged monster. Someone tell Seymour what happened last time NZ Railways was privatised. There is also a competition as to who can be the biggest hypocrite. At the moment I have Nicola in front. We might eventually end up with new ferries of a suitable size, but I suspect unable to cope with capacity in 2030. I doubt that suitable infrastructure will result. All because we hated anything Labour did. Nothing about this has been evidence based or rational. I’m sure the consultants will be very happy with what the taxpayer has donated to them.
I hate to be seen to defend Seymour but when Fay Richwhite purchased NZ Rail he was 10. Too many politicians these days have not heard of the old quote of "without a knowledge of history, you're bound to repeat it". I think the best thing would be to leave Seymour to Winston. He's still got his old butchers mincing machine at the back of his office I bet.
Ha, Garry. Seymour is very familiar with this period of NZ history. His main party benefactors were predators who made out with their fortunes with the privatisation of telecom, although I am sure his version of it is very much informed by the winners and not the losers in those transactions.
But the cruise ships that go in several times a week are much longer than the ferries, up to 300 metres or more. The proposed rail enabled ferries were 35 metres longer than Aratere, which is about 180 metres long .
Cruise ships are much longer; they go into Picton very regularly.
That was the Ferry announcement when you don’t have a Ferry announcement. Nicolas Willis should be deeply embarrassed by how badly she has handled this but I suspect her ego is too large. I cannot believe she believes she has discharged her duty to NZ. Perhaps she should have approached the owners of the 21 vessels (Toyotas obviously) world wide that are mission capable for the cross strait role before binning the ship building contract? I truly despair of her and this Government. What to do?