Long stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, January 30:
Climate Change & Energy Minister Simon Watts announced the Government’s new Paris Agreement target for emissions reductions last night, extending the targeted reduction to 51-55% by 2035 from 50% by 2030, which experts described as “shockingly unambitious” and out of step with our trading partners’ more aggressive plans;
The Climate Commission had recommended the Coalition commit to a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of cutting emissions between 53-69%, while free trade deal partners such as the UK plan to cut as much as 81%;
European politicians have started asking questions in their parliaments (EU & UK) in recent weeks about New Zealand’s commitment to the Paris Agreement, given our trade deals with the UK and EU included Paris target clauses;
ANZ’s monthly Business Outlook survey published yesterday found business confidence fell in January from December as managers and owners returned from summer holidays to find the economy still stuck in a three-years-and-counting recession in GDP-per-capita terms, thanks to still-high fixed mortgage payments and the beginning of the biggest fiscal tightening since Ruth Richardson’s ‘Mother of All Budgets’ in 1991;
Newstalk ZB host Mike Hosking directly challenged the performance of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in an interview this week, saying Luxon was “running out of runtime if you don’t start kicking some arse and getting this country moving”;
Teachers and students reported ‘prison-like’ meals often arrived too late on the first day yesterday of the new, cheaper and centralised system of school lunches set up by David Seymour, forcing some teachers to go out and buy fruit and pizzas for their students with their own money.
(There is more detail, analysis and links to documents below the paywall fold and in the Dawn Chorus podcast above for paying subscribers. If we get over 100 likes from paying subscribers we’ll open it up for public reading, listening and sharing.)
Govt does the least possible with new Paris target
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts, who has also just been given the Energy, Local Government and Revenue portfolios, announced New Zealand’s long-awaited new NDC to the Paris Agreement last night.
New Zealand’s new target of a gross emissions reduction of 51-55% from 2005 levels by the 2035 year was barely above the 50% target for 2030, leaving experts under-whelmed and raising questions about whether a moving of the goalposts to a single year target from a decade-long-budget could actually allow higher emissions between 2030 and 2035.
It’s also much lower than the 66% reduction expected by other Paris Agreement countries, including the UK, which is targeting an 81% reduction and is starting to ask questions about New Zealand’s compliance with the Paris Agreement to avoid breaching the Paris clauses in our Free Trade Deal.
Here’s more detail and analysis this morning from Newsroom’s Marc Daalder:
The target is far weaker than those offered by other comparable countries and even developing nations in recent weeks. It comes ahead of a February 10 deadline for all countries to submit new targets for 2035 that go beyond their 2030 commitments.
Watts’ office told Newsroom the new target is designed to be achievable solely through domestic action.
While the Government’s current climate policies – which rely mostly on unproven technologies for carbon capture and cutting livestock emissions – aren’t projected to achieve the target, more policies are expected in the third emissions reduction plan in five years’ time. If that plan puts New Zealand on a pathway to meeting its domestic carbon budgets, it will also meet the less ambitious range of the new NDC.
The independent Climate Change Commission advised the Government in October that, under its demonstration pathway, New Zealand could achieve reductions of 53 to 58 percent through domestic greenhouse pollution cuts alone. In a tailwinds scenario, that could rise as high as 69 percent. Newsroom’s Marc Daalder
Climate policy expert Christina Hood wrote on LinkedIn last night the new NDC was “shockingly unambitious and clearly not New Zealand’s ‘highest possible ambition’ as required by the Paris Agreement”.
Marc also pointed to criticism of the change from a multi-year budget target to a single year target as another watering down of New Zealand’s commitment.
Late on Thursday, the criticism was quick to come in. Global director of policy and campaigns for 350.org Andreas Sieber was first out the gate, writing that “given the 2030 NDC was 50 percent, starting the range target at 51 percent allows [New Zealand] to do nothing”.
New Zealand's 2035 Paris Agreement target: 51% to 55% reduction on 2005 gross levels (as a single year target).
So a 1% reduction compared to the current 50% 2030 target. And it might even result in higher emissions because of the switch from being a budget to a single-year target... will need to think more about that. Newsroom’s Marc Daalder
Elsewhere: Sharp rise needed in emissions target to help avoid 'crises', advocates say RNZ’s Eloise Gibson
Quote of the day: Hosking to Luxon
“You’re too much yak* and not enough do. My frustration with you is that I think you’re well-intentioned, but you’re running out of time.
“You’re going to run out of runtime if you don’t start kicking some arse and getting this country moving.” Mike Hosking when interviewing PM Christopher Luxon on Newstalk ZB on Tuesday (6:50 onwards)
Just briefly elsewhere:
Top Six in the Pick ‘n’ Mix
Climate news: Govt targets new emissions cuts of as little as 1% Newsroom’s Marc Daalder
Scoop: Documents reveal tension over proposal to close Dargaville hospital RNZ’s Peter de Graaf
News: Minister overrides OT decision to pull funding from youth helpline RNZ’s Lilian Hanley
Health news: General practices about 'to cross a tipping point', new Health Minister warned RNZ
Poverty news: Some schools fork out to feed students as new lunches arrive late 1News reporters
Health scoop: Pharmac refusing to release culture review, boss understood to be on extended leave Stuff’s Jenna Lynch
On politics in Aotearoa, geopolitics, economics & markets
News: Simeon Brown lines up ED wait times, primary healthcare for fix list RNZ’s Jo Moir
News: 'Easy to focus on the outliers': Seymour defends school lunch programme RNZ’s Checkpoint
Speech: Beyond the cycle: Growth and interest rates in the long run RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway
Op-Ed: Reti’s velvet glove wore too thin for PM’s iron fist Ian Powell in Newsroom
Op-Ed: New minister’s track record doesn’t bode well for our health Kirsty Wild and Alistair Woodward in Newsroom
Op-Ed: If the government wants science to have an economic impact it has to put its money where its mouth is. By Nicola Gaston, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau The Conversation
News: Peters backs down over comments as Mexican ambassador raises concerns 1News’ Maiki Sherman
News: European Central Bank cuts again, Lagarde says tariffs will have 'global negative impact' Reuters
News: Big central banks start 2025 heading in different directions. Europe and Canada cut. Fed holds. Reuters
News: US economy slows in the fourth quarter; spending robust Reuters
News: Speculation Desley Simpson will stand for Auckland mayoralty RNZ’s Jessica Hopkins
On housing, infrastructure & transport
Analysis: Investment heaven: public assets and private investors BusinessDesk-$$$’s Rebecca Stevenson
News: 'Saving seconds over safety': Community frustrated over speed reversal RNZ (LDR)’s Jonathan Leask
Analysis: Speed limit changes: How much difference will they actually make on the roads?Speed limits on 38 sections of the state highway network around the country will return to the previously higher limit. Stuff’s Karanama Ruru
News: Queenstown Mayor discusses congestion charge RNZ’s Phil Pennington
Explainer: What the new residential tenancies law means for renters 1News (Re:News)’s Stephanie Ockhuysen
On poverty, health, jobs, incomes, living costs & health
Scoop: Jobs lost in major retail group collapse Newsroom Pro-$$$’s Andrew Bevin
Feature: Future 'grim' for interventions after Oranga Tamariki cuts RNZ’s Lilian Hanley
Poverty: ‘A thousand times harder’: Parents turn to charities as school costs rise Northern Advocate’s Yolisa Tswanya
News: Health minister to outline future for Dunedin Hospital Stuff’s Hamish McNeilly
Op-Ed: Worrying about Dunedin Hospital Kathryn van Beek in Newsroom
News: New school lunches 'bland', look like 'prison food' - student RNZ’s Felix Walton
News: 'Disappointed': Rangiora after-hours clinic promises fall flat 1News (LDR)’s David Hill
News: Dargaville Hospital had overnight doctor only five out of 55 nights RNZ (LDR)’s Peter de Graaf
Interview: Too scared to move: Woman says she’s been denied pain medication, leaving her feeling ‘nailed to bed’. Stuff’s Mildred Armah
On climate, land, air, sea & water
Deep-dive: Govt to work out principles for ‘cost-sharing’ for residential managed retreat“Minimisation of cost” to taxpayer a key principle in developing climate adaptation plan The Post-$$$’s Rob Stock
Feature: Bats, wētā and seabirds: The native species most at risk from climate change RNZ’s Eloise Gibson
News: Farm consultants behind company that left cows in ‘appalling’ conditions. Stuff’s Nadine Roberts
Good news
Climate: Te Aroha solar farm hailed as ‘big boost for the town. ’Solar farm greenlight gets warm welcome from Te Aroha Stuff’s Benn Bathgate
Te Tiriti: Te Kāhui Tupua: Taranaki Maunga granted legal personhood 1News’ reporters
Feature: 'Massive revitalisation': The new builds changing the face of Tauranga. 1News (LDR)’s Alisha Evans
Chart of the day: ‘The pace of contraction is more gradual’
“It was a slightly less encouraging start to the New Year for businesses with perhaps reality biting as it becomes clear that falling interest rates over the second half of last year will take time to work their magic. That’s not surprising, and the level of confidence and activity expectations remains very healthy, despite the pullback to start the year.
Economy-wide reported past activity (the best indicator of GDP) lifted marginally in January, following December’s large bounce. Smoothing through the month-to-month volatility continues to suggest the economy has lifted off the floor, though it certainly isn’t flooring it just yet. About as many firms are still reporting lower activity as are saying it’s higher, compared to year-ago levels.
Positively, reported past employment rose further in January, though it is still in contractionary territory. While the correction in employment levels may still have a little further to run, given the typical lagged response to past weakness in activity, responses suggest that the pace of contraction is becoming more gradual.” ANZ Economist Henry Russell in a note.
Cartoon of the day: ‘Feeling lucky punk?’
Timeline cleansing nature pic
Ka kite anō
Bernard
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