Long stories shortest in Aotearoa’s political economy this morning:
National’s pollster finds Christopher Luxon has fallen behind Chris Hipkins as preferred PM for the first time, with Labour’s support high enough to govern with the Greens & Te Pāti Māori.
Asked about the polls, Luxon says fixing the economy will improve support for the Government, but a new survey shows voters, including National, ACT and NZ First voters, want the health system’s crisis resolved as a priority.
Luxon has also announced another foreign trip from this Sunday, this time to India in the hopes of securing a trade deal, even if it may not include dairy access.
The Government is offering up the first tunnel-and-bridge-laden section of the Northern Expressway motorway to infrastructure investors this week, despite being warned by the Infrastructure Commission of its brutally high costs.
ASB, BNZ and ANZ have told MPs lower Reserve Bank capital requirements for banks under any new Governor would help lower mortgage rates.
ASB has more than halved its house price growth forecast for 2025 to just 3.4% from 9%, with prices still falling through the first half of the year.
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The six things to know this morning
Long stories short, my top six news items in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, March 11 are:
A monthly poll published yesterday by National’s pollster, Curia, for the Taxpayers’ Union found support for Christopher Luxon as preferred PM fell below support for Labour leader Chris Hipkins for the first time. Support levels for the centre-left parties rose more than for the centre-right parties, entrenching the Opposition’s ability to govern if an election were held now. (See charts of the day below)
Challenged on the poll results at yesterday’s post-Cabinet news conference, Luxon said: “Our job is to focus on what New Zealanders want, and that is all about us fixing the economy and making sure we get the money into Kiwis’ back pockets.”
Luxon also talked about his work improving relations overseas, pointing to plans announced yesterday for him to lead a business delegation to India, leaving on Sunday.
However, a poll published yesterday by Horizon Research of voters’ top concerns found fixing the health system ranked above all else, including the economy and the cost of living, and especially among National, ACT and New Zealand First voters. (See table of the day below)
CEOs and Chairs for ANZ, ASB and BNZ told MPs yesterday at a select committee hearing that lower Reserve Bank capital requirements for banks such as theirs would lower banking costs for customers. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has already asked for advice on loosening the rules set by now-on-leave ex-Governor Adrian Orr, which would allow banks to lend much faster into the housing market. Interest The Post-$$$
ASB lowered its house price inflation forecast for this year, with Chief Economist Nick Tuffley saying: “The pick-up in sales has been sluggish so far and there is a lot of stock on the market, so that will temper how soon prices lift. And migration flows have fallen quite sharply.”
My Pick’ n’ Mix Six of scoops & deep-dives this morning
Politics scoop: No regional ‘cities deal’ for Wellington after mayors can’t agree The Post-$$$’s Andrea Vance
Housing deep-dive: Maker of tiny homes fights to keep them consent free Stuff’s Marty Sharpe
Poverty & Health news: Bowel cancer screening changes 'driven by ideology, not facts' RNZ’s Susana Leiataua
Politics news: School lunch failures: Provider told to show daily visual evidence of quality RNZ’s Louise Ternouth
Politics news: A 'destruction of Whānau Ora by stealth' - providers RNZ’s Tuwhenuaroa Natanahira
Transport news: Advocacy group takes government to court over speed limit increases RNZ’s Samantha Gee
Charts of the day
Table of the day
Luxon focuses on the economy, but even his own supporters don’t
Quote of the day
‘A country we can no longer trust’
“A person who worships at the alter of Donald Trump will kneel before him, not stand up to him.
“These are dark days. Dark days brought on by a country we can no longer trust.” New Canadian Liberal Party leader and soon-to-be Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in his victory speech BBC
Substack essentials of the day
Cartoon of the day
Timeline-cleansing nature pic of the day
Ka kite ano
Bernard
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