The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
When austerity worsens public debt & cuts GDP
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When austerity worsens public debt & cuts GDP

Treasury expected to downgrade GDP growth & tax forecasts as Government's spending cuts & building freezes hit the economy; Willis expected to delay surplus & lift borrowing forecast by $6 billion
Willis is expected to have to reveal the bitter fiscal fruits of her austerity strategy in the HYEFU later today. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/TheKaka

Mōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, December 17 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus podcast above and the daily Pick ‘n’ Mix below are:

  1. Finance Minister Nicola Willis is expected to have to reveal the bitter fiscal fruits of her austerity strategy in the HYEFU later today, with bank economists forecasting Treasury will downgrade its GDP growth and tax forecasts, which will force the Government to increase its borrowing programme by $6 billion to $132 billion over the next four years. See news previews below.

  2. Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and PM Christopher Luxon accused councils yesterday of reckless spending on ‘pet projects’ leading to rates increases, which they said justified a new set of reports on council rates, debt and balanced budgets for the next 10 years. See quotes of the day below.

  3. The Opposition and some councillors hit back, accusing the National-ACT-NZ First Coalition of starving councils of capital and of hypocrisy, given the Beehive isn’t subject to the same long-term capital planning rules as councils and refuses to share the GST and income tax benefits of population and nominal GDP growth with councils, who have to pay for half the capital costs of population growth. See quotes of the day below.

  4. Food banks are warning they may struggle to survive a surge in demand and Government funding cuts, with one philanthropist stepping in at the last minute to rescue one prominent food bank supplying desperate families in South Auckland. See news yesterday below.

  5. PM Christopher Luxon is wavering on whether he’ll attend Treaty of Waitangi events in February. See news yesterday below.

  6. Inflation figures yesterday showed how Air New Zealand and hotels in Auckland hiked prices in November to take advantage of demand linked to three Coldplay concerts, while rents are still rising to the limits of tenants ability to pay around 50% of income. See chart of the day below.

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The Top Six in the Pick ‘n’ Mix for Tuesday, December 17

  1. Scoop: Fewer than half of families eligible for FamilyBoost get payments1News’ Katie Bradford

  2. News: Question mark hangs over PM’s Waitangi attendance. Christopher Luxon is considering a tour to “make sure it's a national day”.’ The Post’s Anna Whyte

  3. Preview: Govt may 'shift goalposts' on surplus as 2025 cuts details are revealed NZ Herald-$’s Thomas Coughlan

  4. Analysis: Big gigs, big prices: Stats show impact of dynamic pricing on flight costs RNZ

  5. Op-Ed by Public Health Communication Centre: National capacity needed to monitor misinformation to protect public health and social cohesion

  6. Op-Ed by Kathy Spencer in The Post The smoke and mirrors of health funding. Is investment in our health system at a record high, as Luxon suggests, or is it being cut?


The best of the rest

Scoops & Breaking News this morning

DOC, MPI acted unlawfully in failing to protect sea life. Ruling confirms conservation agency has powers to set hard limits on fishing deaths. The Post’s Andrea Vance

'Systemic failings': Court rules DoC failed to protect marine species for decades NZ Herald’s Michael Morrah

Concerns med school price tag too low ODT-$’s Matthew Littlewood

ECan councillors briefed in private by vested interests Newsroom’s David Williams

Govt fails KPI because of ‘rushed lawmaking’ Newsroom-$’s Marc Daalder

News previews

Government forecasts expected to get even worse RNZ

This Budget update will not be pretty The Post’s Luke Malpass

GDP figures expected to show NZ in recession The Post’s Tom Pullar-Strecker

'Low point' – new data to confirm NZ back in recession NZ Herald

News yesterday

Health NZ IT cutbacks: Faults could 'snowball', report warns RNZ

Government warned operating Aratere ferry until 2029 'simply not possible' RNZ

Homeless given 2 days to leave camping site RNZ

Signs o’ the times news

Roads in, social housing out in Govt ‘back to basics’ push NZ Herald

'Urban sprawl': Ex-MP's greenbelt subdivision plan hits opposition NZ Herald

'Nothing more for ratepayer': Councillor slams water infrastructure plan NZ Herald

Over 1600 car parks, millions in revenue gone in cycle lane roll out. The Post

Residents say apartments will 'ruin sun and privacy' RNZ

OT needs more funding to care for young people - advocate RNZ Checkpoint

Hutt City keeps next year’s forecast rate rise at 13.4%. The Post

Southland windfarm may face 'insurmountable' issues BusinessDesk-$’s Ian Llewellyn

Solutions & Good News

David Letele's foodbank saved, families to receive hampers RNZ

Good news for renters as landlords 'having to compete harder' RNZ

Te Tai Tokerau iwi marks 'significant milestone' in council relations RNZ

Funding extension brings relief to Wairoa’s recovery efforts RNZ

Food or school uniforms? The tough choices some families have to make NZ Herald

Timber bridges could become 'new norm' for NZ NZ Herald

Deep-dives, interviews, features & analysis

Number of youths kept in police cells 10 times higher than two years ago RNZ

The property empire that supported a multimillion-dollar criminal ring. While Chin Kok Soon was the kingpin of a massive criminal receiving ring, he and his wife collectively owned numerous Wellington properties. Then police swooped in October 2022. The Post

It happens here: Sex trafficking and slavery in NZ RNZ

Columns, Op-Eds, Editorials & Open Letters

Column by NZ Herald-$’s Simon Wilson: Hooray for the Public Servant of the Year -Rod Carr

Column by Rob Campbell in Newsroom Somewhere along the line someone always pays

NZ Royal Society Open letter on importance of research in the social sciences and humanities

NZCTU Open letter to Treasury on undue restrictions on restricted briefings

Op-Ed by Boyd Swinburn in The Post Better explanations needed for low-cost school lunch programme. Seymour needs to be explicit about how he will define success or failure of his new system.


Quotes of the day: Blaming the victim

“We see so many examples up and down the country where councils, you know, the convention centres, the hotels that they look at, and all of these other things that they want to spend money on, and you look at the language. They use the four wellbeings to justify the decisions that they're making, and we're saying that party is over.” Simeon Brown announcing the reversal of ‘Four Wellbeings’ provisions.

“We have to get our councils focused on doing the basics really well. And at the moment there have been massive amounts of distraction with pet projects and vanity projects from time to time in different towns and cities across NZ, and we want them to be very, very focused on what the ratepayer expects them to do.” PM Christopher Luxon at his post-Cabinet news conference with Brown.

“One of the biggest things driving up rates up and down the country at the moment is the need to upgrade water infrastructure. The previous government had a plan in place to make sure that the cost of that was being carefully managed, that central government had a role, and that ratepayers weren't going to end up picking up the whole of the tab. This government scrapped that, and that is one of the reasons that rates are now going up.” Labour Leader Chris Hipkins in response.

“This is about the government managing the politics of the fact that rates are going up because of decisions that the central government has taken, rather than because of decisions that local government is taking.” Hipkins.


Chart of the day: Rentiers go to the max

“Rents are doing what rents do in a supply constrained environment - rising to whatever people can afford to pay. Wages have risen in the last couple of years (chasing increased living costs), and now rents are playing catch-up.” Musical Chairs via BlueSky


Cartoon du Jour: ‘Look out, Widow Twanky…’

Emma Cook via The Post and BlueSky

Timeline-cleansing nature pic: Weka on the run

Photo by Bernard Hickey for The Kākā

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The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Bernard Hickey and friends explore the political economy together.