TLDR & TLDL: Last week’s ‘Reconnecting to the world’ announcements of an even harder pivot to elimination and signs the delta variant is hitting the young hard overseas poses some tough questions about when and how we can reopen Fortress NZ.
Currently, the plan is to start cautiously easing MIQ restrictions once every adult has had a chance to vaccinate, which is currently seen as the first quarter of 2022. But it’s becoming clearer behind the scenes that the vaccination of children will also be required with this elimination strategy as we’re short of ICU beds.
Cabinet is expected to soon approve the beginning of the vaccination of 12-15 year olds, but approval for 0-12 years is still a long way off.
Here’s a sample of the thinking around from the last few days that gives a sense of how hard it will be to open up and stay with the elimination strategy:
Australia’s delta outbreak is out of control and New South Wales has given up on elimination or herd immunity;
Aotearoa-NZ’s Maori and Pasifika communities are already behind planned vaccination rates because of a lack of access to public health services and campaigners such as Dr Rawiri Jansen are calling for the Government to accelerate youth vaccination given the higher proportion of young people in Maori communities;
Our only paediatric ICU beds are at Auckland’s Starship and they’re already full up, and little has been done to expand capacity overall of ICU beds since the onset of Covid;
Israel’s example is sobering - it vaccinated the highest proportion earliest, but has had to lock down again after delta outbreaks and saw 46 deaths yesterday;
Scientists are increasingly saying herd immunity is a pipe dream with the delta and other new variants to come.
My view: The Government has bought itself time to leave its options open until well into next year, thanks partly to the deteriorating situations in Australia and elsewhere. The home isolation trial idea was a bone thrown to business leaders advocating for an opening up, but I doubt it will ever be used at any large scale. Median voters mostly want a tight Fortress NZ for longer, which protects the Government’s hard-elimination stance.
But at some point we have to open up for the sake of the external-facing sectors (importing/exporting/high-end international tourism/international education/migrant workers) of the economy, and to ease the obvious human pain of family separations, missed funerals and family members dying alone. We are now alone in pursuing elimination and the implied drive for something like herd immunity, which no one serious is now seriously saying is possible because of the infectiousness the delta and the likely need to deal with repeated and new pandemics of new variants.
The best and most humane response is to vaccinate absolutely everyone as fast as possible and use as many tools such as social distancing, mask wearing and limiting public events to restrict outbreaks. Even then, not everyone will get vaccinated, including for medical or other legitimate reasons. Meanwhile, we have to build up our ICU units and health infrastructure to deal with outbreaks and ensure even the hesitant or outright deniers are given a chance to be convinced and choose to vaccinate. Then there has to be an opening. Currently, we’re accidentally on purpose pursuing a strategy that implies Fortress NZ forever. That’s not sustainable.
Long story short? We have kicked into next year the toughest decisions about what we’re prepared to sacrifice in a reopening. Meanwhile, we’re not being honest with ourselves and each other about the extra work needed to beef up our health systems and about the further restrictions on the economy likely for much longer than most expect, possibly forever.
Scoops and news breaking this morning
Signs o’ the times news
That escalated - Weeks after rejecting visa requests from family members of Afghani translators now living in New Zealand because of a shortage of MIQ places, Cabinet decided to send a C130 Hercules and 40 military personnel to help extricate 37 former helpers of New Zealand troops in Afghanistan. PM Jacinda Ardern said the 37 places in MIQ would be found in the Government’s own contingency allocation. (Stuff)
Winston’s resurrection? A UMR poll shows Labour on 43 percent down 5 points, National on 28 percent up 4 points, ACT on 13 percent up 2 points, the Greens on 7 percent down 1 point, NZ First on 4.4 percent down 0.6 and the Māori Party on 1.7 percent up 0.2. (Newshub)
Useful longer reads
Notable other views
Chart of the day
Some fun things
Ka kite ano
Bernard
Dawn Chorus: Our perfect cage