Listen now (40 mins) | Treasury sees higher bond debt in PREFU, but misses reporting growing climate, health, productivity & housing debt due to public investment drought in tandem with 2% population growth for 20 years
What's even more worrying about that immigration chart is the unshown mix in the comings and goings.
I'm onboard with immigration designed for social and economic diversity and resilience, but I can't help feeling our long-term strategy is instead to import thousands of aged-carers (under the euphemism "economic migrants") to look after our 'landed gentry'; with Australia as the escape valve for our skilled and ambitious young renter class.
That might be the very best last line you’ve written, Mr. Hickey. Don’t hang back!
We laugh at the faux democracy and the perversities and weirdness of politics in the US and fail to understand that politics in NZ is also very irrational and the punters are victimised by politicians attempting to gain power or hold on to it.
Great charts with explanations, thank you. I wonder if Luxon/Willis will keep to the 30/30 ‘rule’ and when their tax plans come unstuck, will they start cutting benefits? I notice this morning on RNZ, Luxon said they would keep spending on frontline services and cut back office spending. Most govt departments can’t cope now with what is asked of them. So where will those cuts stop?
We now have an even better reason to vote for those parties, the Greens or Te Pāti Māori that will increase the size of Government to take care of growing climate, health, productivity & housing debt. We have no reason we have to remain near the bottom of the OECD in spending, taxing, and debt...with logically, poor outputs.
Surely all parties should insist that Treasury include expected future costs based on projected population growth etc. I mean I know that you've commented that there assumed population growth is well short fo the current reality, but even that is probably driving some fairly serious future costs associated with health, housing education etc.
Also - shouldn't they include expected costs that we may incur as per various climate agreements regarding our emissions?
Because nothing got done, will the incoming government in 2029 find, to meet 2030 commitments, it has to add $2.00 per litre to petrol and order half the dairy numbers to be culled.
So many people see a by date as being a when we'll get started doing something date, because in so many instances the by date gets pushed out or just removed because a new government decides it doesn't have to be done.
Hi Bernard thanks very much for this summary.. I note that Luke Malpass in his article via Stuff https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/politics/350071555/prefu-election-and-new-zealands-troubled-waters-ahead?utm_id=mh_stuff states "By 2024, debt servicing costs will gobble up $9b on the annual Budget and rising to $11b" - is that the case? I looked at your summary but couldn't see figures on debt servicing costs. Apologies if I've missed the debt servicing cost figures.
Hi Bernard, this is excellent. I'm simply an ordinary gal who struggles to make sense of the economy and all who sail in her but since I caught up with you at Newsroom I have found your columns clear and succinct. This podcast about the prefu has really been helpful and I just wish more "undecideds" would listen to it.
Bernard - I feel that this note has slipped over the line from analysis to activism. IMO the PREFU definitely did not "expose the Opposition’s claims about the Government being ‘addicted to spending’". I am yet to hear a good explanation for why core crown spending went from $74b in 2017 to $128b this year (per PREFU). That is a 73% increase and spending this year is *higher* than during COVID. Some commentators have tried to suggest this number is much lower on a real per capita basis, but why should government spending increase in perfect correlation with inflation or population? Wage inflation has lagged consumer prices, and we don't need more policy analysts when more people enter the country. Also, isn't adjusting government spending for inflation a bit circular when one of the drivers of inflation is....the government spending? This would all be OK if we were getting better services but I see little evidence of that and there are numerous anecdotes of very low quality spending (bike bridge consultancy, Te Pukenga centralisation, etc). I am genuinely curious about this, but don't have the time to do the serious analysis needed to assess it. Blaming it on the floods is insufficient. The increase in spending has been so large, that it demands a line-by-line reconciliation of what has driven the additional spending and what the rationale for that spending is. I don't need or want a tax cut, but I sure would like the taxes I pay to be well spent.
From the Ahr Valley in Germany. (Yes we have offset our emissions.) 2 years on from massive floods similar to Esk valley but 188 deaths here. Massive rebuild has years to go yet and government is “governing “unlike in NZ. Cannot build or rebuild in many areas. Cannot put fossil fuel heating etc in new houses. Why are the Bald Headed Boardroom Bandit and the Little Man in Short Pants unable to get it.? NZ barrels towards climate armageddon because the economy and capitalism “Trumps” all. ( bad pun).The back pocket takes precedence over their children's children. Nice Autumn weather of 35C daily. No such thing as climate change!!!!
Wednesday’s Chorus: The PREFU's missing debt
Please make this fully public, it is too important not to be.
What's even more worrying about that immigration chart is the unshown mix in the comings and goings.
I'm onboard with immigration designed for social and economic diversity and resilience, but I can't help feeling our long-term strategy is instead to import thousands of aged-carers (under the euphemism "economic migrants") to look after our 'landed gentry'; with Australia as the escape valve for our skilled and ambitious young renter class.
Excellent - needs to be 'out there', so please consider sharing.
Sociopathic. Someone needed to be brave enough to say it. And yes, please make it public – just in case some humane eyes and ears are open out there.
That might be the very best last line you’ve written, Mr. Hickey. Don’t hang back!
We laugh at the faux democracy and the perversities and weirdness of politics in the US and fail to understand that politics in NZ is also very irrational and the punters are victimised by politicians attempting to gain power or hold on to it.
Great charts with explanations, thank you. I wonder if Luxon/Willis will keep to the 30/30 ‘rule’ and when their tax plans come unstuck, will they start cutting benefits? I notice this morning on RNZ, Luxon said they would keep spending on frontline services and cut back office spending. Most govt departments can’t cope now with what is asked of them. So where will those cuts stop?
We now have an even better reason to vote for those parties, the Greens or Te Pāti Māori that will increase the size of Government to take care of growing climate, health, productivity & housing debt. We have no reason we have to remain near the bottom of the OECD in spending, taxing, and debt...with logically, poor outputs.
Surely all parties should insist that Treasury include expected future costs based on projected population growth etc. I mean I know that you've commented that there assumed population growth is well short fo the current reality, but even that is probably driving some fairly serious future costs associated with health, housing education etc.
Also - shouldn't they include expected costs that we may incur as per various climate agreements regarding our emissions?
Because nothing got done, will the incoming government in 2029 find, to meet 2030 commitments, it has to add $2.00 per litre to petrol and order half the dairy numbers to be culled.
So many people see a by date as being a when we'll get started doing something date, because in so many instances the by date gets pushed out or just removed because a new government decides it doesn't have to be done.
Hi Bernard thanks very much for this summary.. I note that Luke Malpass in his article via Stuff https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/politics/350071555/prefu-election-and-new-zealands-troubled-waters-ahead?utm_id=mh_stuff states "By 2024, debt servicing costs will gobble up $9b on the annual Budget and rising to $11b" - is that the case? I looked at your summary but couldn't see figures on debt servicing costs. Apologies if I've missed the debt servicing cost figures.
Hi Bernard, this is excellent. I'm simply an ordinary gal who struggles to make sense of the economy and all who sail in her but since I caught up with you at Newsroom I have found your columns clear and succinct. This podcast about the prefu has really been helpful and I just wish more "undecideds" would listen to it.
Bernard - I feel that this note has slipped over the line from analysis to activism. IMO the PREFU definitely did not "expose the Opposition’s claims about the Government being ‘addicted to spending’". I am yet to hear a good explanation for why core crown spending went from $74b in 2017 to $128b this year (per PREFU). That is a 73% increase and spending this year is *higher* than during COVID. Some commentators have tried to suggest this number is much lower on a real per capita basis, but why should government spending increase in perfect correlation with inflation or population? Wage inflation has lagged consumer prices, and we don't need more policy analysts when more people enter the country. Also, isn't adjusting government spending for inflation a bit circular when one of the drivers of inflation is....the government spending? This would all be OK if we were getting better services but I see little evidence of that and there are numerous anecdotes of very low quality spending (bike bridge consultancy, Te Pukenga centralisation, etc). I am genuinely curious about this, but don't have the time to do the serious analysis needed to assess it. Blaming it on the floods is insufficient. The increase in spending has been so large, that it demands a line-by-line reconciliation of what has driven the additional spending and what the rationale for that spending is. I don't need or want a tax cut, but I sure would like the taxes I pay to be well spent.
So chillingly well put BH. I wonder, however, if we [humans] haven't always left it to the next generation to fix the mess the previous ones made
Please release Bernard,
From the Ahr Valley in Germany. (Yes we have offset our emissions.) 2 years on from massive floods similar to Esk valley but 188 deaths here. Massive rebuild has years to go yet and government is “governing “unlike in NZ. Cannot build or rebuild in many areas. Cannot put fossil fuel heating etc in new houses. Why are the Bald Headed Boardroom Bandit and the Little Man in Short Pants unable to get it.? NZ barrels towards climate armageddon because the economy and capitalism “Trumps” all. ( bad pun).The back pocket takes precedence over their children's children. Nice Autumn weather of 35C daily. No such thing as climate change!!!!
Patrick Medlicott
Treasury are not the entity you should be looking to for reporting on anything other than government finances.
Even without the PDFs this was an excellent and clear listen. Thanks. (Make it public)