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Yes! Did you see that hairdressers will have to wear masks, but customers not! So illogical.

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Agreed on the renters in the cage not having such a beautiful time.

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I wish it was different. Sadly, our hospitals can't cope with 'let it rip', even after we get to max vaccination. And our elimination strategy has been so successful we can't give up the addiction. We are stuck between a rock and a hard place. And expats are being squeezed the hardest.

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Sep 8, 2021Liked by Bernard Hickey

Exactly Holly. The government needs to stop the 'Team of five million' PR. We are part of the million NZers overseas with no second citizenship. We have been effectively banned from returning.

18+ months into the pandemic, anyone who suggests enjoying the sorts of liberties they do in other countries is still shouted down with tired “you want to kill grandma to travel” arguments.

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Thanks Holly. I understand the frustration. I’m describing the way it is and what I’m seeing inside Govt. PM has just said in the 1pm presser that she wants everyone (ie 100%) vaccinated and won’t tolerate one death in NZ. Sadly, those one million expats hardly vote, so from a political point of view, are being ignored. Same as for young renters. The only people who really matter in a democracy are the median voters.

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Yes, thanks for your reply. I do appreciate how much you question current strategy and relay this through The Kaka!

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I would love a list of expats by electorate - to see which MPs would be most at risk. Presumably simply a number of overseas mail addressess to enrollees would suffice, cross referenced as a proportion of the MP's majority. An interesting set of electorates to target

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I'm also worried about the 3 year rule - as an expat you must have stepped foot in NZ at some point in the 3 years prior to any election. we could rule out 1 million votes after an extended period f closed borders with MIQ debacle

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Sep 8, 2021Liked by Bernard Hickey

Kia ora Bernard

Thanks for your insight. It's important to shed light on this Fortress NZ mentality. Though you don't have any real evidence for "mid-to-late 2023, or even 2024". Speculation like that has real emotional consequences on us stranded from our whanau in NZ - or visa versa.

I think there needs to be more focus on that we will get to 80% double-dose by Christmas. Look at the Doherty Institute modelling in Australia and how once you reach those targets you have effectively reduced covid hospitilisations to that of a similar rate to flu.

Once we get there I think we will still see mission creep on the part of safety-first, health-mad bureaucrats. Who think normal is risky and risk is not allowed. The costs of crushing the pandemic cannot be at the expense of the living.

Cheers

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Thanks Anthony. Sadly 80% isn't high enough, or even 90%. Others had no choice but to just let it rip because it had already gone. We're able to choose elimination. The Lancet study is informing the Govt. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(21)00165-6/fulltext

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Sep 8, 2021Liked by Bernard Hickey

It's this arrogance that's infuriating! You're only able to choose elimination at the expense of hundreds of thousands of your citizens being banned from returning. This entire 'can't let a single person die of COVID' will never be sustainable, and once you reach 80% it becomes at the expense of the living as Anthony has said. I understand that you haven't lived overseas through the pandemic, but life goes on. The change of a breakthrough case killing a healthy, vaccinated citizen is incredibly low. I don't expect you to understand this on an emotional level, but NZers have little idea of how a) difficult it was to live through the pandemic unvaccinated and b) how fast the world is adjusting.

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Agree Holly, though I think Bernard has heaps of his family overseas. Regardless, we need some more sensibility from the government and media. As Julian has said below, once we hit high levels of vaccination elimination will obviously be a failed strategy. The government needs to lead, not be constantly beholden to public health experts.

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100% - apologies of course he does as everyone. It just riles me, sitting here in my week-to-week sublet.

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Can Understand. It’s a horrible situation.

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Thanks Holly. I do have family overseas who are telling me about what’s happening on the ground. I agree on those risks. But for 70% of NZers, they are committed to elimination. And the PM just said 100% vaccination is what she wants and she won’t tolerate one death.

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People refusing to comply with lockdown broke contact tracing efforts towards suppression/elimination in NSW. If Nats oppose the first lockdown in 22 the same will happen here.

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Yep. that’s a risk next year. My brothers in Melbourne tell me the exhaustion around lockdowns meant Victoria couldn’t go on. That’s why Victoria’s premier abandoned elimination last week. The protests a couple of weekends ago really unnerved people. Hundreds of unmasked people walking down the street.

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Bang on! Can you seriously expect anyone to comply with any nationwide lockdown in 2022 once we’re 90% jabbed costing $1bn per week.

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We’ll see. I’ve seen how committed the Govt and most voters are now to elimination. We’ll see whether that changes.

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Sep 8, 2021Liked by Bernard Hickey

I like the term "beautiful cage".

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Sep 8, 2021Liked by Bernard Hickey

Hi Bernard, Thank you for this analysis - it's what I have suspected for a long time now, but nice to see it laid out with supporting quotes from government etc.

Have you heard anything about a serious investment into healthcare? It seems to be the missing link in our response. The current outbreak has been pretty small in the scheme of things, I was horrified (and angry) to hear that we had pretty much already reached the capacity in the Auckland hospital system. Are you aware of plans in the works to ramp up our healthcare facilities for a time when elimination is not the only strategy? Also to avoid reduced health outcomes for people with other non-covid health needs when resources are redircted to covid response.

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Thanks Allie. The Govt hasn’t been able to ramp up the capacity because of staff shortages. And new facilities in the form of buildings can’t be started quickly. 5-10 yrs for hospital building consents. And Govt squeezed capital spending for DHBs from 2017 to 2020 to get net debt down to the promised 20% level. Was also squeezed from 2012 to 2017 by previous Govt, again to get debt down and ensure low interest rates pump up house prices.

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This is exactly my thought. If the issue is that hospitals are reaching capacity, why hasn't / isn't the government focused on increasing capacity? I understand about consents etc, but presumably they could pass emergency legislation of some sort to overcome these issues. Incentivise New Zealanders to train as nurses or as some sort of "covid carer" that people could train for more quickly. Can they just not bring themselves to admit that their current strategy isn't sustainable?

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Bernard the young who want to see the world/go on OE surely will not stick around forever. This will remove a dynamic (and still low cost) segment of the labour market that is already at max capacity. Surely this sort of brain drain factors into the govt's thinking?

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They know now that if they leave they may not be able to get back in. It’s now a factor for people thinking about leaving. And most couldn’t leave until now because they’ve only just got access to vaccine. Can’t get into Australia at all (Australia’s limited to 3,000 entries a week when NZ at 2,000 a week) and other places need vaccination.

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I agree with your analysis it’s tough titties for NZers offshore until Govt sorts out MIQ just like it’s tough titties for those who can’t get adequate health and other services here now let alone if it is made worse by introducing the virus. Government is being a bit passive in terms of the power and resource it has to fix most problems with a focus on political expediency rather than practical actions. The beltway magical thinking is strong in the privileged political class...excellent point. A bit bananas really the lot of them. With a functional MIQ both problems would be sorted and it would be a minor cost for meeting the needs of both offshore and onshore NZers. They’re really just being tight unnecessarily saving pennies and giving away billions to banks. They should be investing heavily in housing, health, MIQ and income adequacy for all. I think they’re fiscally conservative and have given in to the big end of town giving their mates money inequitably. Pretty sad as the narratives they promote like education and childcare, changes to laws are simply not needed by most of us we just need the ones we have to work...which they don’t. They’ve lost sight of their function and are social engineering us madly and by madly I mean that literally.

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Wow! That's crazy...

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What do you think another year of isolation will do to NZ housing?

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It would mean no rate hikes, and therefore higher prices. It would also limit new house supply.

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Thanks. I am not a property owner and my risk appetite to leverage upto my eyeballs in a country committed to perma-isolation is evaporating fast. I hope another 12-months of closed borders gives NZ opportunity to take a long hard look at the perfect boomer paradise we are creating. I need to see some upside or my partner and I will be taking our engineering degrees elsewhere. Thanks for all your analysis Bernard. Cheers

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Sep 9, 2021Liked by Bernard Hickey

The government can't offer the incentive of borders opening and international travel in exchange for the country reaching certain vaccination targets and then take that away and expect people to remain happy. Since NSW abandoned its elimination strategy and the "travel bubble" can't be resumed, there's no way the government can indefinitely keep the border with Australia closed with a 70%+ vaccination rate without a lot of resistance. I expect the border with Australia to reopen in the first quarter of 2022 with a testing and home isolation requirement, followed by other high vaccination rate countries. The polls will force their hand.

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I can see why people think the political support for elimination won’t last beyond 70% vaccination, but worth recalling that the only person arguing publicly for a 70% threshold is Judith Collins, and she is less popular than ever.

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Sep 9, 2021Liked by Bernard Hickey

Thanks for the analysis Bernard. My thoughts are that NZers who want to return to NZ should be allowed to exercise their right do so. Govt should be investing in adapting and building more facilities to ensure this can happen. It should be a clear priority.

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thanks. Two years for the consent, before the building even starts. And then there’s the staffing issue. Hipkins doesn’t believe it can be done before the two years is up, and then would be moot because (he suggests) the crisis will be over overseas. I don’t agree it will be over by then. There’ll be new variants.

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Sep 9, 2021Liked by Bernard Hickey

I think come the next Covid outbreak, and it will happen again. The NZ public will get tiresome very quickly of the lockdown policy.

This lockdown we've been sold on the whole, "get vaccinated to protect yourself and others" which we've all been happy to do as the numbers show. But come next lockdown when we're 60%, 70%, even 80%, vaccinated and the government rolls out the line, "we're locking down as Covid is moving the goal posts and the vaccine isn't as effective as it used to be", then that will be the breaking point for them.

The NZ public simply won't accept that and it could see a shift in the polls for Labour which will more than likely see flexibility on the opening of the border. Because nothing says action like falling poll numbers. Unfortunately, the opposition don't do themselves any favours to make that happen at the moment.

Covid is here to stay in whatever variant it takes on - Delta, Mu, Kappa, Omega, and sooner or later we will have to accept it .

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Sep 9, 2021Liked by Bernard Hickey

Hi Bernard. Thank you for this assessment of the issues. To a certain extent this outcome was somewhat predicatable back in March/April 2020 and probably the most regrettable thing is that as a country we have not taken the opportunity that the last 18 months has provided us. Instead of just hanging our hope on vaccines (and perhaps antiviral medicines etc) there really needed to be a campaign to change our behaviour so that we could potentially live with the "Covid cats". This is not to say that I do not support the "stamp it out approach" - but we also need other additional 'strings to our bow'. Biolocial systems can be cruel at times and covid is a very timely reminder that we are just part of a much larger biological system. Over time man's best defences have been to change the way we act! But then change is painfall, and often driven by the individual - Governments can only do so much (though in this case the NZ Government could have done a lot more more and more effectively to give us more options and finish up in a different position than what you outline in your post).

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Yep. I wish the Govt had started beefing up health system the moment it got elected, but wasted three years with reviews and effective real per capita operational and capital spending budget cuts.

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Did they really have a choice as a first term labour government to be spraying cash around? They had to prove they were competent prudent economic managers so were handcuffed. They had no mandate for large increases in public spending after being anointed by Winston. Lest we forget the economic growth was slowing at the end of 19 and Nat/Act were poll leaders pre covid.

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There are a number of assumptions that should be challenged here: 1) That double vaccinated people will comply with future lockdowns. I doubt they will, especially given their chance of a breakthrough infection is vanishingly small. 2) That future lockdowns will work. The vaccine increases the chances of asymptomatic transmission - giving contact tracers almost no chance to trace the chain. The more vaccinated the population, the more likely an infection goes unnoticed, and hence unable to be stopped 3) That the govt will "wait" for an as-yet-not-invented, more effective vaccine to open up - I've seen no news on any vaccine in development that could stop transmission. The vaccines we have are remarkably effective. 4) The idea that the voting public will remain wedded to the idea of elimination while witnessing the wholesale collapse of entire industries such as tourism (domestic) hospitality, film and TV, events - not to mention untold number of businesses that need to maintain links to overseas markets. 5) The idea that 500 deaths from Covid would be politically untenable, when nearly 10,000 men, women and children die of cancer every year in this country, let alone around 650 from flu and pneumonia.

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And 350 road toll deaths

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Is it worth thinking about the Government taking land it already owns and building huge housing numbers to become Covid 19 safe houses. These could be managed by the Community Housing sector after Covid 19 has moved on. Already in South Auckland the community housing sector is cooperating with the government to provide houses. This way the government can assist their immediate needs and create long term housing for families.

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