Hipkins tells Parliament Skegg plan for 'reconnecting to the world' on hold after delta outbreak; Govt renews commitment to elimination at all costs; Hendy sees weeks more lockdown before elimination
Thanks for your insight. It's important to shed light on this Fortress NZ mentality. Though you don't have any real evidence for "mid-to-late 2023, or even 2024". Speculation like that has real emotional consequences on us stranded from our whanau in NZ - or visa versa.
I think there needs to be more focus on that we will get to 80% double-dose by Christmas. Look at the Doherty Institute modelling in Australia and how once you reach those targets you have effectively reduced covid hospitilisations to that of a similar rate to flu.
Once we get there I think we will still see mission creep on the part of safety-first, health-mad bureaucrats. Who think normal is risky and risk is not allowed. The costs of crushing the pandemic cannot be at the expense of the living.
Hi Bernard, Thank you for this analysis - it's what I have suspected for a long time now, but nice to see it laid out with supporting quotes from government etc.
Have you heard anything about a serious investment into healthcare? It seems to be the missing link in our response. The current outbreak has been pretty small in the scheme of things, I was horrified (and angry) to hear that we had pretty much already reached the capacity in the Auckland hospital system. Are you aware of plans in the works to ramp up our healthcare facilities for a time when elimination is not the only strategy? Also to avoid reduced health outcomes for people with other non-covid health needs when resources are redircted to covid response.
Bernard the young who want to see the world/go on OE surely will not stick around forever. This will remove a dynamic (and still low cost) segment of the labour market that is already at max capacity. Surely this sort of brain drain factors into the govt's thinking?
I agree with your analysis it’s tough titties for NZers offshore until Govt sorts out MIQ just like it’s tough titties for those who can’t get adequate health and other services here now let alone if it is made worse by introducing the virus. Government is being a bit passive in terms of the power and resource it has to fix most problems with a focus on political expediency rather than practical actions. The beltway magical thinking is strong in the privileged political class...excellent point. A bit bananas really the lot of them. With a functional MIQ both problems would be sorted and it would be a minor cost for meeting the needs of both offshore and onshore NZers. They’re really just being tight unnecessarily saving pennies and giving away billions to banks. They should be investing heavily in housing, health, MIQ and income adequacy for all. I think they’re fiscally conservative and have given in to the big end of town giving their mates money inequitably. Pretty sad as the narratives they promote like education and childcare, changes to laws are simply not needed by most of us we just need the ones we have to work...which they don’t. They’ve lost sight of their function and are social engineering us madly and by madly I mean that literally.
The government can't offer the incentive of borders opening and international travel in exchange for the country reaching certain vaccination targets and then take that away and expect people to remain happy. Since NSW abandoned its elimination strategy and the "travel bubble" can't be resumed, there's no way the government can indefinitely keep the border with Australia closed with a 70%+ vaccination rate without a lot of resistance. I expect the border with Australia to reopen in the first quarter of 2022 with a testing and home isolation requirement, followed by other high vaccination rate countries. The polls will force their hand.
Thanks for the analysis Bernard. My thoughts are that NZers who want to return to NZ should be allowed to exercise their right do so. Govt should be investing in adapting and building more facilities to ensure this can happen. It should be a clear priority.
I think come the next Covid outbreak, and it will happen again. The NZ public will get tiresome very quickly of the lockdown policy.
This lockdown we've been sold on the whole, "get vaccinated to protect yourself and others" which we've all been happy to do as the numbers show. But come next lockdown when we're 60%, 70%, even 80%, vaccinated and the government rolls out the line, "we're locking down as Covid is moving the goal posts and the vaccine isn't as effective as it used to be", then that will be the breaking point for them.
The NZ public simply won't accept that and it could see a shift in the polls for Labour which will more than likely see flexibility on the opening of the border. Because nothing says action like falling poll numbers. Unfortunately, the opposition don't do themselves any favours to make that happen at the moment.
Covid is here to stay in whatever variant it takes on - Delta, Mu, Kappa, Omega, and sooner or later we will have to accept it .
Hi Bernard. Thank you for this assessment of the issues. To a certain extent this outcome was somewhat predicatable back in March/April 2020 and probably the most regrettable thing is that as a country we have not taken the opportunity that the last 18 months has provided us. Instead of just hanging our hope on vaccines (and perhaps antiviral medicines etc) there really needed to be a campaign to change our behaviour so that we could potentially live with the "Covid cats". This is not to say that I do not support the "stamp it out approach" - but we also need other additional 'strings to our bow'. Biolocial systems can be cruel at times and covid is a very timely reminder that we are just part of a much larger biological system. Over time man's best defences have been to change the way we act! But then change is painfall, and often driven by the individual - Governments can only do so much (though in this case the NZ Government could have done a lot more more and more effectively to give us more options and finish up in a different position than what you outline in your post).
There are a number of assumptions that should be challenged here: 1) That double vaccinated people will comply with future lockdowns. I doubt they will, especially given their chance of a breakthrough infection is vanishingly small. 2) That future lockdowns will work. The vaccine increases the chances of asymptomatic transmission - giving contact tracers almost no chance to trace the chain. The more vaccinated the population, the more likely an infection goes unnoticed, and hence unable to be stopped 3) That the govt will "wait" for an as-yet-not-invented, more effective vaccine to open up - I've seen no news on any vaccine in development that could stop transmission. The vaccines we have are remarkably effective. 4) The idea that the voting public will remain wedded to the idea of elimination while witnessing the wholesale collapse of entire industries such as tourism (domestic) hospitality, film and TV, events - not to mention untold number of businesses that need to maintain links to overseas markets. 5) The idea that 500 deaths from Covid would be politically untenable, when nearly 10,000 men, women and children die of cancer every year in this country, let alone around 650 from flu and pneumonia.
Is it worth thinking about the Government taking land it already owns and building huge housing numbers to become Covid 19 safe houses. These could be managed by the Community Housing sector after Covid 19 has moved on. Already in South Auckland the community housing sector is cooperating with the government to provide houses. This way the government can assist their immediate needs and create long term housing for families.
Kia ora Bernard
Thanks for your insight. It's important to shed light on this Fortress NZ mentality. Though you don't have any real evidence for "mid-to-late 2023, or even 2024". Speculation like that has real emotional consequences on us stranded from our whanau in NZ - or visa versa.
I think there needs to be more focus on that we will get to 80% double-dose by Christmas. Look at the Doherty Institute modelling in Australia and how once you reach those targets you have effectively reduced covid hospitilisations to that of a similar rate to flu.
Once we get there I think we will still see mission creep on the part of safety-first, health-mad bureaucrats. Who think normal is risky and risk is not allowed. The costs of crushing the pandemic cannot be at the expense of the living.
Cheers
I like the term "beautiful cage".
Hi Bernard, Thank you for this analysis - it's what I have suspected for a long time now, but nice to see it laid out with supporting quotes from government etc.
Have you heard anything about a serious investment into healthcare? It seems to be the missing link in our response. The current outbreak has been pretty small in the scheme of things, I was horrified (and angry) to hear that we had pretty much already reached the capacity in the Auckland hospital system. Are you aware of plans in the works to ramp up our healthcare facilities for a time when elimination is not the only strategy? Also to avoid reduced health outcomes for people with other non-covid health needs when resources are redircted to covid response.
Bernard the young who want to see the world/go on OE surely will not stick around forever. This will remove a dynamic (and still low cost) segment of the labour market that is already at max capacity. Surely this sort of brain drain factors into the govt's thinking?
I agree with your analysis it’s tough titties for NZers offshore until Govt sorts out MIQ just like it’s tough titties for those who can’t get adequate health and other services here now let alone if it is made worse by introducing the virus. Government is being a bit passive in terms of the power and resource it has to fix most problems with a focus on political expediency rather than practical actions. The beltway magical thinking is strong in the privileged political class...excellent point. A bit bananas really the lot of them. With a functional MIQ both problems would be sorted and it would be a minor cost for meeting the needs of both offshore and onshore NZers. They’re really just being tight unnecessarily saving pennies and giving away billions to banks. They should be investing heavily in housing, health, MIQ and income adequacy for all. I think they’re fiscally conservative and have given in to the big end of town giving their mates money inequitably. Pretty sad as the narratives they promote like education and childcare, changes to laws are simply not needed by most of us we just need the ones we have to work...which they don’t. They’ve lost sight of their function and are social engineering us madly and by madly I mean that literally.
Wow! That's crazy...
What do you think another year of isolation will do to NZ housing?
The government can't offer the incentive of borders opening and international travel in exchange for the country reaching certain vaccination targets and then take that away and expect people to remain happy. Since NSW abandoned its elimination strategy and the "travel bubble" can't be resumed, there's no way the government can indefinitely keep the border with Australia closed with a 70%+ vaccination rate without a lot of resistance. I expect the border with Australia to reopen in the first quarter of 2022 with a testing and home isolation requirement, followed by other high vaccination rate countries. The polls will force their hand.
Thanks for the analysis Bernard. My thoughts are that NZers who want to return to NZ should be allowed to exercise their right do so. Govt should be investing in adapting and building more facilities to ensure this can happen. It should be a clear priority.
I think come the next Covid outbreak, and it will happen again. The NZ public will get tiresome very quickly of the lockdown policy.
This lockdown we've been sold on the whole, "get vaccinated to protect yourself and others" which we've all been happy to do as the numbers show. But come next lockdown when we're 60%, 70%, even 80%, vaccinated and the government rolls out the line, "we're locking down as Covid is moving the goal posts and the vaccine isn't as effective as it used to be", then that will be the breaking point for them.
The NZ public simply won't accept that and it could see a shift in the polls for Labour which will more than likely see flexibility on the opening of the border. Because nothing says action like falling poll numbers. Unfortunately, the opposition don't do themselves any favours to make that happen at the moment.
Covid is here to stay in whatever variant it takes on - Delta, Mu, Kappa, Omega, and sooner or later we will have to accept it .
Hi Bernard. Thank you for this assessment of the issues. To a certain extent this outcome was somewhat predicatable back in March/April 2020 and probably the most regrettable thing is that as a country we have not taken the opportunity that the last 18 months has provided us. Instead of just hanging our hope on vaccines (and perhaps antiviral medicines etc) there really needed to be a campaign to change our behaviour so that we could potentially live with the "Covid cats". This is not to say that I do not support the "stamp it out approach" - but we also need other additional 'strings to our bow'. Biolocial systems can be cruel at times and covid is a very timely reminder that we are just part of a much larger biological system. Over time man's best defences have been to change the way we act! But then change is painfall, and often driven by the individual - Governments can only do so much (though in this case the NZ Government could have done a lot more more and more effectively to give us more options and finish up in a different position than what you outline in your post).
There are a number of assumptions that should be challenged here: 1) That double vaccinated people will comply with future lockdowns. I doubt they will, especially given their chance of a breakthrough infection is vanishingly small. 2) That future lockdowns will work. The vaccine increases the chances of asymptomatic transmission - giving contact tracers almost no chance to trace the chain. The more vaccinated the population, the more likely an infection goes unnoticed, and hence unable to be stopped 3) That the govt will "wait" for an as-yet-not-invented, more effective vaccine to open up - I've seen no news on any vaccine in development that could stop transmission. The vaccines we have are remarkably effective. 4) The idea that the voting public will remain wedded to the idea of elimination while witnessing the wholesale collapse of entire industries such as tourism (domestic) hospitality, film and TV, events - not to mention untold number of businesses that need to maintain links to overseas markets. 5) The idea that 500 deaths from Covid would be politically untenable, when nearly 10,000 men, women and children die of cancer every year in this country, let alone around 650 from flu and pneumonia.
Is it worth thinking about the Government taking land it already owns and building huge housing numbers to become Covid 19 safe houses. These could be managed by the Community Housing sector after Covid 19 has moved on. Already in South Auckland the community housing sector is cooperating with the government to provide houses. This way the government can assist their immediate needs and create long term housing for families.