Thanks for your insight. It's important to shed light on this Fortress NZ mentality. Though you don't have any real evidence for "mid-to-late 2023, or even 2024". Speculation like that has real emotional consequences on us stranded from our whanau in NZ - or visa versa.
I think there needs to be more focus on that we will g…
Thanks for your insight. It's important to shed light on this Fortress NZ mentality. Though you don't have any real evidence for "mid-to-late 2023, or even 2024". Speculation like that has real emotional consequences on us stranded from our whanau in NZ - or visa versa.
I think there needs to be more focus on that we will get to 80% double-dose by Christmas. Look at the Doherty Institute modelling in Australia and how once you reach those targets you have effectively reduced covid hospitilisations to that of a similar rate to flu.
Once we get there I think we will still see mission creep on the part of safety-first, health-mad bureaucrats. Who think normal is risky and risk is not allowed. The costs of crushing the pandemic cannot be at the expense of the living.
It's this arrogance that's infuriating! You're only able to choose elimination at the expense of hundreds of thousands of your citizens being banned from returning. This entire 'can't let a single person die of COVID' will never be sustainable, and once you reach 80% it becomes at the expense of the living as Anthony has said. I understand that you haven't lived overseas through the pandemic, but life goes on. The change of a breakthrough case killing a healthy, vaccinated citizen is incredibly low. I don't expect you to understand this on an emotional level, but NZers have little idea of how a) difficult it was to live through the pandemic unvaccinated and b) how fast the world is adjusting.
Agree Holly, though I think Bernard has heaps of his family overseas. Regardless, we need some more sensibility from the government and media. As Julian has said below, once we hit high levels of vaccination elimination will obviously be a failed strategy. The government needs to lead, not be constantly beholden to public health experts.
Thanks Holly. I do have family overseas who are telling me about what’s happening on the ground. I agree on those risks. But for 70% of NZers, they are committed to elimination. And the PM just said 100% vaccination is what she wants and she won’t tolerate one death.
People refusing to comply with lockdown broke contact tracing efforts towards suppression/elimination in NSW. If Nats oppose the first lockdown in 22 the same will happen here.
Yep. that’s a risk next year. My brothers in Melbourne tell me the exhaustion around lockdowns meant Victoria couldn’t go on. That’s why Victoria’s premier abandoned elimination last week. The protests a couple of weekends ago really unnerved people. Hundreds of unmasked people walking down the street.
Kia ora Bernard
Thanks for your insight. It's important to shed light on this Fortress NZ mentality. Though you don't have any real evidence for "mid-to-late 2023, or even 2024". Speculation like that has real emotional consequences on us stranded from our whanau in NZ - or visa versa.
I think there needs to be more focus on that we will get to 80% double-dose by Christmas. Look at the Doherty Institute modelling in Australia and how once you reach those targets you have effectively reduced covid hospitilisations to that of a similar rate to flu.
Once we get there I think we will still see mission creep on the part of safety-first, health-mad bureaucrats. Who think normal is risky and risk is not allowed. The costs of crushing the pandemic cannot be at the expense of the living.
Cheers
Thanks Anthony. Sadly 80% isn't high enough, or even 90%. Others had no choice but to just let it rip because it had already gone. We're able to choose elimination. The Lancet study is informing the Govt. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(21)00165-6/fulltext
It's this arrogance that's infuriating! You're only able to choose elimination at the expense of hundreds of thousands of your citizens being banned from returning. This entire 'can't let a single person die of COVID' will never be sustainable, and once you reach 80% it becomes at the expense of the living as Anthony has said. I understand that you haven't lived overseas through the pandemic, but life goes on. The change of a breakthrough case killing a healthy, vaccinated citizen is incredibly low. I don't expect you to understand this on an emotional level, but NZers have little idea of how a) difficult it was to live through the pandemic unvaccinated and b) how fast the world is adjusting.
Agree Holly, though I think Bernard has heaps of his family overseas. Regardless, we need some more sensibility from the government and media. As Julian has said below, once we hit high levels of vaccination elimination will obviously be a failed strategy. The government needs to lead, not be constantly beholden to public health experts.
100% - apologies of course he does as everyone. It just riles me, sitting here in my week-to-week sublet.
Can Understand. It’s a horrible situation.
Thanks Holly. I do have family overseas who are telling me about what’s happening on the ground. I agree on those risks. But for 70% of NZers, they are committed to elimination. And the PM just said 100% vaccination is what she wants and she won’t tolerate one death.
People refusing to comply with lockdown broke contact tracing efforts towards suppression/elimination in NSW. If Nats oppose the first lockdown in 22 the same will happen here.
Yep. that’s a risk next year. My brothers in Melbourne tell me the exhaustion around lockdowns meant Victoria couldn’t go on. That’s why Victoria’s premier abandoned elimination last week. The protests a couple of weekends ago really unnerved people. Hundreds of unmasked people walking down the street.
Bang on! Can you seriously expect anyone to comply with any nationwide lockdown in 2022 once we’re 90% jabbed costing $1bn per week.
We’ll see. I’ve seen how committed the Govt and most voters are now to elimination. We’ll see whether that changes.