Dawn chorus: The end of the immigration industrial complex

TLDR: This morning I talk with NZIER Economist Peter Wilson about last night’s big migration reset speech, which set out an ambition to leave the tap of cheap temporary migrants off when the Covid-19 border restrictions end.

My more detailed analysis from last night is here.

The key facts to take away from the speech: Aotearoa-NZ has the highest rate of temporary workers in the OECD (5% of workforce), 80% of residency approvals went to temporary workers already here, and nearly half of all essential skills visa approvals in 2019 were at the two lowest skill levels. The most vulnerable sectors are aged care, where 55% of workers are on some sort of visa, horticulture, agriculture, service stations, liquor stores and Uber.

NZIER Economist Peter Wilson

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Scoops and news breaking this morning

Stuff.co.nz Politics @NZStuffPolitics

Ombudsman investigates University of Canterbury over Anne-Marie Brady review

dlvr.itOmbudsman investigates University of Canterbury over Anne-Marie Brady reviewA paper co-authored by the renowned China expert sparked a review by her employer, but information sought by Stuff about the investigation was later withheld.

Elsewhere briefly in our political economy

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

Some headwinds developing for @NanaiaMahuta 's Three Waters reforms. Councils rightly ask how Govt-run-and-created water authorities can fix investment deficit with current central govt debt rules, without privatisation.

Mayor Jake (Kaipara Mayor Dr Jason Smith) @drjakesmith

We’re all worried about risk of higher rates bills, loss of local control of assets and poor governance from afar. Drought water management is key risk for future here. Three Waters reform will could see privatisation of assets, higher bills, says Goff https://t.co/9mUuoFFCUF

RNZ @radionz

Two hundred and thirty-five fishing crew members spent weeks longer than planned in a Christchurch hotel last year after 31 tested positive for the virus, resulting in two health workers also catching it.

rnz.co.nzFishing companies stick with plans to bring in foreign crewsMore fishing crew are on their way to New Zealand from Covid-19 hotspots such as Russia.

Col. Lateral @offbalancetweet

Last year ASB said they were going to use FLP for green lending. Might speak to the number of green lending opportunities in NZ right now, that they have pivoted to new build home loans

stuff.co.nzASB’s 1.79 per cent floating mortgage rate: What’s the catch?The bank is offering a new rate, and potential cash back, to buyers of new houses.

In the global political economy

Michael Rowland @mjrowland68

The latest Newspoll shows an overwhelming majority of voters (Liberal and ALP) support the international border staying closed for at least another year. #auspol

Stuff @NZStuff

Virgin Australia CEO calls for open borders, even if ‘some people may die’

dlvr.itVirgin Australia CEO calls for open borders, even if ‘some people may die’Head of Virgin Australia Airlines believes it’s "not in anyone’s interests" to keep Australia’s borders closed off.

Sign of the times news

anuja_nadkarni @anuja_nadkarni

Can you imagine not being able to work, study or get on with your life while you wait for years to hear back from Immigration NZ about whether you can have a future in NZ or not?

newsroom.co.nzYoung people ‘left to rot’ in residency visa queueTrapped by two-year-long delays in visa applications, unable to work or study, young immigrants pin their hopes on Government rule changes this week.

RNZ - Nine To Noon @ninetonoon

If you ride roughshod over communities you will get push-back #RMA

rnz.co.nzRMA reform - what does it mean for local councils<p>Reform of the Resource Management Act is now well underway, with the first two peices of the new legislation to replace it expected to be before Parliament at the end of this year. The RMA will be replaced with three new acts, the Natural and Built Environments Act, the Strategic Planning Act, an…

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

This is how growing inequality works. It creates enclaves and slums out of towns like Cambridge, which is where I grew up from age of 13-18. It was a mixed town then in 80s. Not anymore.

stuff.co.nzFamilies struggling to afford $700-a-week rent as Cambridge housing leaves vulnerable out in the coldA sobering reality check of the housing crisis facing many in the Waikato town was delivered to elected members setting budgets for the next decade.

Stuff.co.nz Politics @NZStuffPolitics

Neighbours go into bat against compact housing proposal in Cambridge

dlvr.itNeighbours go into bat against compact housing proposal in CambridgeDeveloper says the properties can help relieve housing pressure but opponents say it’ll destroy their town.

🌺Mihingarangi Forbes @Mihi_Forbes

'It really, really sucks - it's hard to keep afloat' - Solo mum

rnz.co.nzBudget 2021: Solo mothers on the benefit say they need more helpSolo mothers on the benefit say they need more help in this week’s Budget, as they continue to struggle from week to week.

Stuff.co.nz Politics @NZStuffPolitics

Neighbours go into bat against compact housing proposal in Cambridge

dlvr.itNeighbours go into bat against compact housing proposal in CambridgeDeveloper says the properties can help relieve housing pressure but opponents say it’ll destroy their town.

Longer reads and listens

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

Interesting from Janine Starks: "For me, rent controls sit in the same camp as quantitative easing. They don’t work in theory, but in the right situation, they might work in practice. The fact that 95 per cent of economists reject them, gives hope."

stuff.co.nzHousing market still needs brakes applied, rent control could be the way to goOPINION: I read a long, technically correct argument against rent control. It was one of those Jesus, Mary, Joseph &amp; the wee donkey moments.

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

Good point via this Luke Malpass column: “There's going to be more upward pressure on wages in Australia and so when that happens, I think it’ll just magnify that kind of effect on the New Zealand labour market.”

stuff.co.nzBudget 2021: Is New Zealand on the eve of a new brain drain to Australia?A radical change in approach across the ditch, combined with an open border and the lack of a growth plan in New Zealand could spur a new brain drain.

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

Good column here from Jon Johansson on Fair Pay Agreements. He says NZ First didn't stop them last term. Also highlights likely role of focus groups in public sector pay freeze announcement (since watered down).

stuff.co.nzInfluencing political policy, and the triumph of marketingOPINION: When John Key’s Government was ascendant, I was asked how best to influence Key’s policy direction. The answer? Focus groups.

Some fun things

Nick @StrayDogNZ

When you play 'Guess Who' on the hardest difficulty setting:

Stilgherrian @stilgherrian

“Cow in love with accordion,” it’s titled, but yeah I’m not so sure.

youtube.comCow in love with accordion.The power of love. Cow, forest and accordion.

The sun rose at 7:24 am today in Wellington. It will rise tomorrow at 7:25 am.