Dawn Chorus: Starting the rate hikes

TLDR: This Wednesday everyone is expecting the Reserve Bank to start hiking rates all the way up to 1.5-2.0% by the end of next year, although the global economic environment is being buffeted by the delta strains and our own elimination strategy looks to have locked down Fortress NZ until well into next year.

The big news breaking this morning overseas is the surprisingly fast fall of Kabul to the Taliban and desperate efforts to get western-aligned officials, interpreters and others out before they face execution. (Reuters)

This week I’m focused on whether New Zealand should have a population policy for my Spinoff podcast and will be asking more about how long we can sustain our Covid elimination strategy, given New South Wales effectively gave up on ever getting rid of the delta variant over the the weekend.

Jacinda Ardern is still committed to our aggressive elimination strategy, but NSW has effectively accepted delta is there for good now. Photo: The Kaka

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Scoops and news breaking this morning

Thomas Coughlan reports via NZ Herald that Kāinga Ora has taken on an extra 1,000 staff as it ramps up state house building. Fair enough.

The Far North District Council is formally pulling out of the Three Waters reforms, challenging a lack of clarity of the costs of restructuring, and fears people of the Far North would pay massive water bills in the future. (RNZ)

Simon Bridges has unleashed on the ‘bedwetters’ in his own party in a new book, Andrea Vance reports for Stuff. He said the book wasn’t designed to help him run for the National leadership again. So why is he still in Parliament?

Maritime NZ has charged Ports of Auckland director John Gibson over the death of a port worker, which is big news in the director and health and safety communities. (RNZ)

In big news for traders in Australian resources shares, the AFR-$$$ reports Woodside Petroleum is in talks to buy BHP’s entire petroleum assets for A$20b.

Here’s one for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare watchers on the key US CPAP market. The WSJ-$$$ reports that nearly 2m sleep apnea sufferers across the U.S. are affected by a recall of Philips devices found to emit potentially harmful gases and particles.

For those keeping an eye on the extreme right in Australasia, Nick McKenzie et al have a big investigation this morning at the SMH-$$$

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Signs o’ the times news

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

I’m stuck behind logging trucks every day going over the Remutaka Hills and all these logs go to China, and I’m stuck buying ply from Argentina,” he said.

stuff.co.nz‘This is really affecting builders and builders’ lives’: Wood shortage causing headachesJeremy Long is having to get creative as the wait time for locally made material rises.

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

"The results for renters are particularly poor; [half] of renters are saying that the home they live in, the rent they pay is not affordable to them - it costs them more than 30 percent of their income to live there."

rnz.co.nzNew Zealand -- the land of plenty (of housing issues)<p>Research New Zealand has taken the pulse of the nation on how Kiwis rate their current homes in terms of a series of “decent homes” factors. Managing Partner Emanuel Kalafatelis is with us to cover off the results.</p>

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

South Island exporters struggling as container ships skip Nelson port

tvnz.co.nzSouth Island exporters struggling as container ships skip Nelson portSealord told 1 NEWS sometimes only one in four ships turn up.

Stuff.co.nz Business @NZStuffBusiness

Housing costs driving teachers, aged care nurses away from cities that need them

dlvr.itHousing costs driving teachers, aged care nurses away from cities that need themAccommodation costs are the key reason why many cities aren’t getting the workers they need.

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Other notable views

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Good point here from ⁦@dileepa_fonseka⁩ The best economic development spending councils could do would be to spend on unleashing new house building. Biggest employer prob right now is finding staff who can afford to live in our big cities.

stuff.co.nzEconomic development not just about food festivals, it is about housing tooOPINION: Want economic development? Forget visitors, think about your future residents.

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

“We’re beginning to realise that we have to live with COVID. That’s from a mental health and a physical health perspective. There is a very clear connection between lockdown and mental illness.” An Australian mental health campaigner

smh.com.auMental health leaders urge Australia to learn to live with COVIDA growing number of mental health leaders are warning the aggressive pursuit of zero-COVID through lockdowns is coming at too high a cost to people’s wellbeing and we must learn to live with the virus, amid surging calls for help.

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Useful longer reads and listens

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Excellent explainer from @SiouxsieW on elimination and opening up. Key things: we can't really open the borders until all the 0-12 year olds have been vaccinated, and our only ICU for kids is at Starship, and it's mostly full already

thespinoff.co.nzSiouxsie Wiles: We all want to open up to the world. Here’s what we need to do firstAs the forum on ‘reconnecting’ gets under way, Siouxsie Wiles explores the critical factors we need to consider. Spinoff coverage of the Covid-19 response is made possible thanks to support from members. Click here to learn more. One of the big questions I’ve been asked a lot over the

Jin Russell @DrJinRussell

@mwaldeva @bernardchickey @SiouxsieW @mwaldeva what seems to be happening is that there’s marked heterogeneity in paediatric admissions (and tip of this, PICU) depending on context. Where there is high community transmission and vulnerable population (unvaccinated, risk factors), child hospitalisations have risen /1

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

‘Only when the world is adequately vaccinated will travel start to feel as it did before the pandemic. That may not be until 2024’ Travel chaos will last well beyond summer economist.com/international/… from @TheEconomist-$$$

economist.comTravel chaos will last well beyond summerCovid-19 will disrupt journeys for years to come | International

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

A useful wrap up of the issues.

stuff.co.nzHousing affordability: Who actually wins from the housing crisis?It’s easy to watch your house skyrocket in value and think you’re winning, but it’s getting harder to move up the ladder. So who is winning?

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Chart of the day

Bill Bowtell AO @billbowtell

Excellent graph by @dbRaevn showing depth of crisis brought on by incomprehensible decision of @GladysB NSW govt to let Delta run in largely unvaccinated NSW. Still more must be done to reverse course. @TheTodayShow @InsidersABC @theprojecttv @RevBillCrews @MinnsChris @smh

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A fun thing

Adam @adamgreattweet

love when signs are in multiple languages, so inclusive 🥰

Ka kite ano

Bernard

PS Just FYI and to confirm my initial plan when I launched The Kākā in October last year, I plan to start charging for the Dawn Choruses from Tuesday September 21. Paying subscribers will get access to the Dawn Choruses, discussion threads, live ‘hoon’ webinars and have the ability to comment.

Paid access will cost $19/month or $190/year per individual subscriber, although I’ll be offering an early-bird discount for all existing subscribers and ‘bulk’ corporate rates when we start on September 20. I welcome your suggestions for areas of interest and any feedback on the service.