Nov 25, 2021 • 10M

Dawn Chorus: National set to pivot

Luxon seen as frontrunner for National's likely coronation of a leader next Tuesday, despite a quiet starting year; He could pivot National's tone and policies back towards the centre

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Bernard Hickey
Bernard Hickey and friends explore the political economy together.
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TLDR & TLDL: There’s a lot of cat herding and vote counting to go under the bridge before next Tuesday’s likely coronation of a new National leader, but the frontrunner for now is seen as Christopher Luxon. He could pivot National back towards the centre in both tone and policies to give Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Govt a much tougher fight in 2023. Or Luxon (and less probably Simon Bridges) could be catching National’s third hospital pass in 18 months.

Luxon appears less politically savvy and engaging as a retail politician than his mentor John Key at the equivalent stages in their political careers, and Key also had the benefit of another three years of experience in Parliament before becoming National leader. Luxon will have to step up and around fast to avoid a Todd Muller-style crunching tackle in the next two years. That’s why Bridges may yet get a second chance, which would virtually guarantee a third Labour term. The Tauranga MP remains deeply unpopular with voters, who have already had one reasonably close look. Souffles rarely rise twice and Bridges is not a gifted political cook.

Elsewhere in the news overnight;

The WHO called an emergency meeting this morning to consider reports of a new covid variant from Botswana and South Africa that appears to be even more transmissable than the delta variant (Guardian);

Germany’s new centre-left govt announced it would increase the minimum wage by 25% to €12/hour, however, German consumer confidence sagged this month as a new wave of infections triggered widespread restrictions across Europe; (CNN)

Watch out later today for my midday Ask Me Anything for paid subscribers and the weekly hoon with Peter Bale at 4pm. He couldn’t make it at the last minute last week, but will be on for an hour. Paid subscribers can see below the paywall fold for the webinar link. I’ll also remind paid subscribers in the Ask Me Anything brief before midday, and will email to paid subscribers shortly before the hoon webinar at 4pm. Some people missed it last week.

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