TL;DR: The six news items of note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy on Thursday, April 4 included:
A Roy Morgan poll taken last month and published last night shows confidence in whether the country is on the right track or wrong track collapsed by 17 percentage points in March from February, which is more than it fell during any of the covid lockdown months in Auckland in late 2021.
But the poll’s measure of support for the respective parties showed little movement yet, with combined support for the National/ACT/NZ First coalition parties up one percentage point from February to 56%, while support for Labour/Green was down half a percentage point at 40.5%.
The poll also showed the biggest slump in confidence about the right track/wrong track was among young women in particular, who are now less than half as confident as young men about Aotearoa-NZ’s future. (See more detail and analysis below the paywall fold and in the podcast above)
Shane Jones and Chris Bishop yesterday announced the opening of applications for major projects to get on the list for Jones and Bishop to personally fast-track consents for them. Applications close on May 3 and the list won’t be public before submissions to Parliament on the Fast Track Approvals bill close in a fortnight.
Counter to the Government’s comments about inheriting a fiscal ‘mess/cliff/wreck’ from Labour, Treasury’s Debt Management Office (DMO) announced yesterday it had borrowed $4.5 billion through a new syndicated bond issue at a yield of just 4.77% because there were $17 billion of bids. (See more detail and analysis below the paywall fold and in the podcast above)
Pay to NZX-listed company CEOs rose 3.6% to an average of $2.23 million or 32 times average worker pay in 2023 from 2022, BusinessDesk-$$$ reported this morning, while IRD payroll data for February showed gross reported pay rising at an annual rate of just over 8%. US CEOs were paid US$25.2 million or 344 times the average worker pay there in 2022, up from 21 times in 1965.1
(Paying subscribers can see more detail and analysis below the paywall and in the podcast above. We’ll open it up for public reading, listening and sharing if they give permission by getting over 100 likes.)
Confidence in Govt collapses, especially among women
The Roy Morgan monthly survey of voters about which political parties they would vote for and whether they think the nation and the Government are on the ‘right track’ or ‘wrong track’ shows a 17 percentage point collapse in the March survey’s Government Confidence Rating, which is derived the from its ‘right track/wrong track’ question. It was a bigger one-month fall than in any one of the months of late 2021 during the Auckland covid lockdowns.
Here are the full results in table form, including during the last two years of the previous Government.
The shift is even more stark when broken down by age and gender. The poll shows women see the country on the wrong track more dramatically than other cohorts, especially older men, who still the country on the right track.
It shows a net 41.5% of women aged 18-45 see the country going in the wrong direction, while a net 8.5% of men over 50 see the country going in the right direction. The slump in March was starkest for older women, as Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine commented here (bolding mine):
“Now a majority of 54% of New Zealanders say ‘the country is going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 35% that say ‘the country is going in the right direction.’ This is the lowest result since the month of last year’s New Zealand Election.
“The Government Confidence Rating amongst women plunged in March – driving the overall decline. Government Confidence for older women aged 50+ was down by a massive 24.5pts to 63.5 and for women aged 18-49 was down 18.5pts to only 58.5.
“In contrast, Government Confidence amongst men remained significantly higher during March. For men aged 50+ Government Confidence eased by 4pts to 112.5 – and now the only gender and age group with a positive view on the direction of the country. For men aged 18-49 Government Confidence dropped by 19pts to 95.5.” Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine commented here
Poll results from other pollsters, including Talbot Mills (which polls for the Labour Party and corporate clients) and Curia (which polls for the Taxpayers Union), showed the beginning of a sharp fall in approval for the Government in February. Their March polls aren’t out yet.
Support for parties has yet to follow the sharp fall in Government confidence in February and March, although there was also a lag in the respective moves in late 2021 and early 2022 when Labour slumped from a clear lead over National to being behind.
Professional investors don’t buy fiscal ‘train wreck’ talk
Counter to the Government’s comments about inheriting a fiscal ‘mess/cliff/wreck’ from Labour, Treasury’s Debt Management Office (DMO) announced it had borrowed $4.5 billion through a new 11-year bond issue with a fixed interest cost of 4.5% per year and a yield to maturity of 4.77%, which was just six basis points over the equivalent-length bond trading in secondary markets. The syndicated issue was originally aimed at $3 billion, but the demand was so strong that Treasury decided to issue $4.5 billion, which was just below the $5 billion cap for the auction.
“After initially moving higher in yield, reflecting the moves in offshore markets, NZ government bonds rallied strongly following the pricing of the new 15 May-2035 nominal maturity that was issued via syndication.
“There was strong investor demand for the new maturity. The syndication book size, at final price guidance, exceeded NZ$17.0 billion. NZDM issued NZ$4.5 billion, only slightly below the volume cap of NZ$5 billion. The new maturity was issued at a spread of 6bps over 2034s which was the midpoint of the initial price guidance (+4 to +8 bps). BNZ Interest Rate Strategist Stuart Ritson in a note this morning.
Scoop of the day
Poverty measure scrapped
In order to cut costs, Stats NZ has dropped the annual Living in Aotearoa longitudinal study of income and living conditions after just two years. The survey was set up to measure persistent poverty, which is one of the ten measures specified in the 2018 Child Poverty Reduction Act, Newsroom’s Laura Walters reported this morning.
Numbers of the day
Poverty rising
17,000 - The number of people who each received more than 21 special needs grants in the 2022/23 year, up from 340 in 2015/16. The total number of grants has increased from 856,000 in 2016 to 2.3 million in 2023. Sourced from an MSD briefing to Social Development Minister Louise Upston. Via Newsroom Emma Hatton
Total income rising
$14.8 billion - Actual gross earnings on an accruals basis from pay declared to IRD in the month of February, up 8.0% or $1.1 billion from $13.7 billion reported in February 2023, as measured by IRD’s Employer Monthly Schedule (EMS) and payday filing data sets, released by Stats NZ yesterday. Earnings per filled job in February 2024 were 6.2% higher than a year ago, Infometrics analysis of the figures showed.
Quote of the day
‘You’re driving us overseas’
“We call on the minister to ensure that people are retained in the system, and to save this sector of our science capability from being lost to New Zealand for a generation.” 86 scientists calling on Space, Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Minister Judith Collins in an open letter (below) to reconsider a restructure proposed at Callaghan Innovation that will cost dozens of jobs.
Charts of the day
Workforce growing faster than jobs
Worker payrolls growing faster than CEO pay
Climate pic of the day
Yes In My Back Yard
For the record
Announcements, gazette notices, appointments, court rulings, official reports, academic papers, milestones and statistics
Shane Jones and Chris Bishop yesterday announced the opening of applications for projects to get on the list for Jones and Bishop to personally fast-track consents for major projects. Applications can be made here until May 3, and then a list will be selected for attachment to be tacked on to the Fast Track Approvals Bill. Submissions on the bill can be made here before April 19, without knowing what’s on the list.
Australian PM Anthony Albanese announced the appointment of business lawyer and former AFL Commissioner Samantha Mostyn as Australia’s 28th Governor General. She is the second woman to be Australia’s Governor General after Quentin Bryce, who held the role from 2003 to 2008.
Cartoon of the day
Inspirational quotes
Timeline-cleansing nature pic
Walking the neighbour’s dog
Ka kite ano
Bernard
PS: Looking forward to the Hoon at 5pm tonight.
Confidence in Government collapses