Treasury reports public service spending cuts to pay for lower taxes for landlords are shrivelling the economy, lifting spending on benefits, pumping up public debt & will put 20,000 more out of work
They're just trying to work out if this year of austerity not working was a fluke, the more you try it the better the data is. Who knows if you try it again it might work 🤷♂️ (huge dose of sarcasm)
Something I've taken for granted a wee bit was the self perpetuating cycle effect, or the economic downward spiral that Craig mentioned. We take for granted that this "shall pass" but it can potentially be long lasting & scarring for our economy.
I had a peep at some of the Glasgow Study, it is eye-opening. Also a timely reminder that the decisions of those in power really do have tangible consequences in our everyday lives.
For those interested in the Glasgow Study, here are a couple of links... Will we see these same outcomes take place in Aotearoa? Hopefully not!
Maybe Willis will go under the bus - some of the others are seeing the writing on the wall - no hope for Seymour (he fires the bullets of others) but Peters looked ready to push earlier tonight and Luxon will follow the wind.
Bernard just listening to Wallace Chapman with his panel and economist Gareth ? and they are still trying to blame the reserve bank going on about how difficult and woeful the economy is but simply no mention of all these reasons of this tried and failed doubling down on austerity measures of this govt WRONG FAILED approach taking no blame on themselves! Hand wringing by the panel about how we will all have to suffer( except the wealthy landowners landlords etc) for the sake of getting into surplus.
PLEASE will you offer to speak on RNZ. and BREAKFAST the Panel everywhere you can tell Wallace the real cause!
I sent Wallace your last chorus from yesterday to listen to.
I know but feel frustrated that no media is telling the truth and this govt is getting away with this incompetence acting as though they are the saviours of fixing the wreck and broken economy that Labour and reserve bank caused. No media is challenging it ! BERNARD PLEASE!!
Yeah fair enough. I do try to share the info as diplomatically as possible with friends & Whanau, often they don't even take a look.
I guess some might consider me to be the proverbial odd-ball cousin/friend on face book or whatever. Can't blame them I guess.
Bernard appearing interviews will mean that the framing will be different & unexpected, therefore people will be more likely to listen/watch & therefore "consume" the information so to speak. Not to mention he's also really good at explaining things.
Yes Sigrid, I empathize with what you are saying, it is more than just a pet peeve at this point(regarding the media ignorance about the economy) because the ignorance of those in power are having massive consequences for us citizens.
Actually Labour and / or the RB did cause this. Take a look at this graph (set the timeline to MAX): https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/current-account and this: https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/current-account-to-gdp .Worst overseas balance since Muldoon's 'think big' orgy of foreign-financed expenditure. The reason? Labour omitted to tax the Covid relief money back out of the economy using a surcharge (supertax) on corporation tax and top-band (ie investor-class) income tax. Given that the RB are the 'professionals' that should have been their advice to the gov't at the time. This genie can't be put back in the bottle post-facto and Nat's couldn't have advocated for more tax on companies and the rich for political reasons even if they had realised.
It's a matter of general knowledge that there's nothing in NZ that investors like investing in except real-estate (that's why industrial productivity is so awful). They did this initially, but the RE bubble burst, then the dollars left the country to buy overseas investments. Now the FX markets are awash with billions of NZ dollars that are depressing the value of the currency.
There's no quick and easy way out of this debacle, but being kind to the poorest and investing in 'home grown' (ie financed by gov't money creation & requiring minimum overseas borrowing) infrastructure projects while waiting for the current-account deficit to return to normality would be a start.
Interesting comment re the health data regarding children in the UK. Finland invests in their kids with healthy lunches to ALL children, turn out bright highly creative children at the end of their education, that will serve their country well.
I'm in UK for an extended period so can avoid Luxon etc in the main but equally disappointed w Labour here who seem to have become the new centre right government.
In the UK, the Tory backbench had the privilege of throwing out Truss / Kwateng. Unfortunately, here the Luxon / Willis combo are the OG's of the present government, and there's no equivalent of the all-powerful 1922 Committee in the UK Conservative Party. Not that there's any talent in National to replace them with.
TBH I would almost be happy for the Governor-General to dismiss parliament and appoint a technocratic administration, though I fear the inevitable appointment of RB economists who would skew it to favour their 'daddy'- the private banking sector.
Yes it is all treasuries fault for those over enthusiastic forecasts from the budget, and there is a reason why there is a new treasury secretary. They would have altered the track of HNZ costs had been slid back into last financial year? It might have been useful for journalists to be familiar with the last BEFU and projection more unemployment, means more transfers like accommodation supplement?
So happy we have these financial geniuses in charge. If would almost be hilarious if it wasn't so serious.
They're just trying to work out if this year of austerity not working was a fluke, the more you try it the better the data is. Who knows if you try it again it might work 🤷♂️ (huge dose of sarcasm)
Thank you for these deep dive interviews Bernard.
Something I've taken for granted a wee bit was the self perpetuating cycle effect, or the economic downward spiral that Craig mentioned. We take for granted that this "shall pass" but it can potentially be long lasting & scarring for our economy.
I had a peep at some of the Glasgow Study, it is eye-opening. Also a timely reminder that the decisions of those in power really do have tangible consequences in our everyday lives.
For those interested in the Glasgow Study, here are a couple of links... Will we see these same outcomes take place in Aotearoa? Hopefully not!
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/nov/02/uk-austerity-policies-premature-low-birth-weight-babies-scotland
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/inequalities/2024/06/19/the-cost-of-austerity-how-spending-cuts-led-to-190000-excess-deaths/
Cristina, deep thanks. I wouldn't have known about it, and it's on the dot. Yay - data, data!
Cristina, thank you for this, great info and the sort of data we beed to get out there.
Thoroughly enjoyed Craig. A very clued-up man, along with yourself. Many thanks.
And I thought we were all supposed to be Keynesists now.
Learn from the Brits before they do.
Maybe Willis will go under the bus - some of the others are seeing the writing on the wall - no hope for Seymour (he fires the bullets of others) but Peters looked ready to push earlier tonight and Luxon will follow the wind.
Bad audio on your feed Bernhard
Bernard just listening to Wallace Chapman with his panel and economist Gareth ? and they are still trying to blame the reserve bank going on about how difficult and woeful the economy is but simply no mention of all these reasons of this tried and failed doubling down on austerity measures of this govt WRONG FAILED approach taking no blame on themselves! Hand wringing by the panel about how we will all have to suffer( except the wealthy landowners landlords etc) for the sake of getting into surplus.
PLEASE will you offer to speak on RNZ. and BREAKFAST the Panel everywhere you can tell Wallace the real cause!
I sent Wallace your last chorus from yesterday to listen to.
Sigrid Campbell
Not a bad idea, though I do acknowledge it takes time to do these appearances on podcasts & TV/radio.
I know but feel frustrated that no media is telling the truth and this govt is getting away with this incompetence acting as though they are the saviours of fixing the wreck and broken economy that Labour and reserve bank caused. No media is challenging it ! BERNARD PLEASE!!
Yeah fair enough. I do try to share the info as diplomatically as possible with friends & Whanau, often they don't even take a look.
I guess some might consider me to be the proverbial odd-ball cousin/friend on face book or whatever. Can't blame them I guess.
Bernard appearing interviews will mean that the framing will be different & unexpected, therefore people will be more likely to listen/watch & therefore "consume" the information so to speak. Not to mention he's also really good at explaining things.
Yes Sigrid, I empathize with what you are saying, it is more than just a pet peeve at this point(regarding the media ignorance about the economy) because the ignorance of those in power are having massive consequences for us citizens.
Actually Labour and / or the RB did cause this. Take a look at this graph (set the timeline to MAX): https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/current-account and this: https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/current-account-to-gdp .Worst overseas balance since Muldoon's 'think big' orgy of foreign-financed expenditure. The reason? Labour omitted to tax the Covid relief money back out of the economy using a surcharge (supertax) on corporation tax and top-band (ie investor-class) income tax. Given that the RB are the 'professionals' that should have been their advice to the gov't at the time. This genie can't be put back in the bottle post-facto and Nat's couldn't have advocated for more tax on companies and the rich for political reasons even if they had realised.
It's a matter of general knowledge that there's nothing in NZ that investors like investing in except real-estate (that's why industrial productivity is so awful). They did this initially, but the RE bubble burst, then the dollars left the country to buy overseas investments. Now the FX markets are awash with billions of NZ dollars that are depressing the value of the currency.
There's no quick and easy way out of this debacle, but being kind to the poorest and investing in 'home grown' (ie financed by gov't money creation & requiring minimum overseas borrowing) infrastructure projects while waiting for the current-account deficit to return to normality would be a start.
Interesting comment re the health data regarding children in the UK. Finland invests in their kids with healthy lunches to ALL children, turn out bright highly creative children at the end of their education, that will serve their country well.
Btw, the book Craig mentioned is Seven Children, by Danny Dorling.
Read Treasury's books, listen to Willis and weep.
Great korero w Craig, again.
I'm in UK for an extended period so can avoid Luxon etc in the main but equally disappointed w Labour here who seem to have become the new centre right government.
In the UK, the Tory backbench had the privilege of throwing out Truss / Kwateng. Unfortunately, here the Luxon / Willis combo are the OG's of the present government, and there's no equivalent of the all-powerful 1922 Committee in the UK Conservative Party. Not that there's any talent in National to replace them with.
TBH I would almost be happy for the Governor-General to dismiss parliament and appoint a technocratic administration, though I fear the inevitable appointment of RB economists who would skew it to favour their 'daddy'- the private banking sector.
Yes it is all treasuries fault for those over enthusiastic forecasts from the budget, and there is a reason why there is a new treasury secretary. They would have altered the track of HNZ costs had been slid back into last financial year? It might have been useful for journalists to be familiar with the last BEFU and projection more unemployment, means more transfers like accommodation supplement?