The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Will the RBNZ upset NZ Inc's applecart?

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Will the RBNZ upset NZ Inc's applecart?

Markets see 36% chance of OCR hike on Wednesday with 72% seeing hike by May; New Govt action and inactions keeping domestic inflation sticky and high; Air NZ and other monopolies eye big price hikes
After contemplating the inflationary pressures of the first 100 days of the new Government, the RBNZ may decide it needs to hike on Wednesday. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The Kākā

TL;DR: Te Pūtea Matua, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, could shock our political economy with a rate hike this Wednesday at 2pm if it believes domestic inflation, much of which is driven by government decisions, government-controlled firms and other monopolies, is still too high and sticky.

News elsewhere in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 6 am:

  • Staff at Customs have been asked to volunteer for redundancy or early retirement to help cut costs, calling into question the Government’s promise to only cut ‘back office’ staff, rather than frontline services. Stuff Tova O’Brien

  • The Government looks set to introduce urgent legislation from tomorrow to urgently shut down Te Ake Whai Ora Māori Health Authority to try to avoid a Waitangi Tribunal hearing on the closure. Newsroom Matthew Scott

  • Companies owned by trusts are set to flush through billions in dividends so as to avoid the increase in the trust rate from 33% to 39% from April 1, tax lawyers say. NZ Herald-$$$ Jenee Tibshraeny.

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Anti-inflationary coalition faces RBNZ judgement

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The latest daily snapshot of the news, detail, insight and analysis on geo-politics, the global economy, business, markets and the local political economy for citizens and decision-makers of Aotearoa-NZ.