TLDR: This week in Aotearoa’s political economy and in geopolitics:
the first tranche of Three Waters legislation was finally passed into law amid a welter of controversy and confusion over a clause to entrench public ownership;
two new opinion polls showed National and ACT are in pole position to win next year’s election outright;
PM Jacinda Ardern confirmed she would reshuffle her Cabinet early next year and said the Government was reprioritising its reforms ahead of next year’s election;
China confirmed a major relaxation of its ‘dynamic zero’ covid policies after widespread protests against harsh lockdowns earlier in the month; and,
oil prices fell to pre-war levels on fears of recessions in Europe and America, complicating an already awkward decision here on extending fuel levy cuts.
Just a reminder to paying subscribers that Lynn and I are still on holiday and on a reduced work flow, which means there is no Ask Me Anything at midday today and no ‘Hoon’ at 5pm. We return next Friday for the last AMA and hoon of the year. I’ve included a shorter ‘solo’ summary of the week in the podcast above.
Five things we learned this week
Three Waters dribbled through
The Labour Government was forced to shunt Three Waters legislation into law on its own after the Greens and Te Pāti Māori pulled their support at the final third reading. It was also forced to strip the bill of an entrenchment provision designed to stop future privatisation.
PM Jacinda Ardern described the provision as a mistake and the Opposition said it warranted the sacking of Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta for defying a Cabinet decision not to include the provision. Ardern said Mahuta had not defied Cabinet and was only responding to a Green amendment paper. Mahuta also said she would stand again at next year’s election.
National-ACT are in pole position to govern alone
Two new opinion polls showed National and ACT are in pole position to win next year’s election outright, with Labour and the Greens lagging a collective seven percentage points in a 1News/Kantar poll and 12.5 points behind National and ACT in the latest monthly Roy Morgan poll.
Look out for a reshuffle and refocus early next year
PM Jacinda Ardern said in year-end interviews she would reshuffle her ministry early next year and look over the summer break to ditch or sideline policies that were not the Government’s top priorities as it strives to a win a third term from behind in the polls.
“(The summer is a chance) to just pause, stand back and say, in the next 12 months what are the things we really need to prioritise, and by prioritising does it mean there are things that you then just say ‘we don’t have the capacity within government to pursue those issues, and they’re just not the most important things for us’.” Jacinda Ardern in an interview with Newsroom’s Jo Moir.
China pivots away from covid zero
China pivoted clearly way from its ‘dynamic zero’ covid policies that had locked down entire cities, neighbourhoods and apartment blocks for weeks on end and forced nearly daily tests for nearly everyone. Widespread and unprecedented public protests last week after the locked-residents of an apartment building in Xinxiang burned to death forced the changes this week.
Case numbers spikes to record highs, but remain tiny relative to the size of China’s population and not much more in absolute numbers than New Zealand. The charts below shows total numbers and case numbers per million.
Petrol prices falling as levy cut looms
Crude oil prices to an 11-month low under US$80/barrel and lower than pre-war levels on fears recessions in China, Europe and America early next year will weaken demand, adding to the depressing effect on our petrol prices from a 16% rise in the NZ dollar to a five-month high this week.
I wrote in Thursday’s email about what that means for the Government’s big decision due shortly about whether or not to extend the ‘temporary’ 25c/litre cut in fuel levies and charges announced shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Useful longer reads and listens for the weekend
A final personal note this week to mark the tragic passing of Hamish Kilgour of The Clean and much more.
This song is one of my favourites of a long list from The Clean.
Here’s a couple of great tribute pieces.
Ka kite ano.
Have great weekends.
Bernard
The week that was to Dec 9