Parents of disabled kids stuck in defunded & desperate limbo; Hospitals & councils dispirited & face fresh turmoil under new ministers; 42% of professionals want to migrate to Australia in 2025
Sure feels grim. Taking our numpty government[s] out of it for a moment, the reality is NZ needs another success story, some new value at scale, to generate economic activity and trade with the world. Australia was not called The Lucky Country for nothing; all they have to do is keep digging, to maintain relative prosperity for their populace.
All NZ needs to restore our first world status is to restore the first world tax system we enjoyed prior to 1985. In the last 40 years we have systematically moved from a first world to a third world tax system - low personal tax rates for the wealthy, eliminated all capital taxes, low company tax rates & a high indirect tax. In addition, the government has given away billions of dollars in unaffordable, unnecessary tax cuts under Douglas, Richardson, Shipley, Key & now Willis, ($13B in 2024 & borrowed an extra $20B to pay for them). To top it off, the ultra wealthy pay approx. half the tax that the rest of us pay, (David Parker's 2023 research proved this). Tax wise, we've buggered the governments' ability to finance anything worth while.
Agree with all your comments about the tax system. But it's not like the relative success of Oz comes down to any greater vision. Higher wages and stronger economic performance are to be expected in a resource rich country that's willing and able to dig.
Looking at the "strategy" of the Altas Network of privatization, and running down the public service etc. I wonder whether this strategy will come back to bite the super rich when there are not skilled workers, health professionals left in NZ to prop up their lifestyle. It seems to me that appealing to these people on moral and ethical grounds is no use, maybe there should be loud voices pointing out the folly of their strategy on the grounds of self-interest. I would really like to hear some discussion around this idea and would it work?
Unfortunately, the super-rich are "sorted" and can access the professional services and supports that sustain their lifestyles without issue. Only a redistribution of wealth—through mechanisms such as a wealth tax, capital gains tax, or broader tax reforms—will challenge this status quo. Instead, the policies emerging from our current coalition government seem openly designed to ensure their wealthy mates become even more "sorted." Hopefully, the rest of us are starting to "get it" and react accordingly rather than drink the austerity cool aid being served up.
It certainly will come back to bite the super rich. I'd midway through reading 'End times; elites, counter-elites, and the path to political disintegration' by Peter Turchin. Its a few years old now, but goes into detail on the fall of civilisations and empires throughout time. He predicted the rise of oligopoly in the US, before the first Trump presidency. Gist of his research is that the elite and counter-elite's cause the demise of societies/civilisations. With a touch of disgruntled masses to really tip it over the edge.
Let's hope NZ is more culturally immune to the forces destroying the US currently.
They have resources to spend enough time out of NZ. I have uber wealthy friends that live part of the year in Maui. Never have to wait for medical treatment etc when back in NZ because they just open the "cheque book", which is where health professionals that don't want to/can't migrate are moving to.
Exactly. It doesn't matter if you are a gzillionaire if you have a heart attack at midnight we are all in the same boat. You need funded well run hospitals and ED to treat you in the public system. If you take your friends out in your luxury launch and something goes wrong you will be relying on volunteers from the Coastguard and police to assist. When the wildfire gets out of control and your deck collapses into the ocean... we are all in this together! Surely the wealthy realise this. Do they? I never get to talk to the Nicks and the Graemes and the Lynettes, but I would love to.
Their biggest concern is when society collapses, their wealth will not buy them privilege. Cued to a section from the 2022 BBC podcast, The Coming Storm, Thiel and the NZ connection.
Who would have expected National to be “fixing” the housing market by crashing the economy (reducing the amount people can and are willing to borrow), and driving people overseas to reduce demand. Rents are deceasing too!
Unfortunately, most people still blame the last government and RBNZ for the recession. Very few (outside of the audience here) are willing to acknowledge the fact that the recession has been created by the deliberate collapsing of the infrastructure sector and routing of the public sector. Atlas tentacles are all over this as Seymour and his cronies rub their hands with glee.
While I understand it is driven by Atlas and similar cronies (as well as a knee-capped and/or reluctant and/or incompetent fourth estate), it is truly mind-boggling people still choose to blame the last government, weirdly accusing them of "not delivering" and demonstrating selective memory regarding the pandemic.
There are many, many well thought-out/researched pieces on this platform, crafted by intelligent, experienced, and skilled authors, but - frustratingly - all it seems to do is create a strong echo chamber.
I've felt this way for a while, I think our country is headed for a credit crunch... it probably already is in one for all I know. Anyone else feel the same way?
My feedback from many friends working in the community sector is that community agencies are having their funding cut and that there is nowhere to refer those in need to. I was stopped by somebody from a government department last week and informed that the Family Court will have considerable cuts in its funding from April onwards. Then we can expect even more tragic cases like the Kahui twins being normal. Is this government devoid of compassion?
Yes Gary, I'm hearing similar - although I'mnot that well networked across the whole Community Sector. Also, some whispering about fear of speaking out as to what the consequences might mean for them and those that use their services. That whisper about the Family Court is deeply troubling if true - hopely good journalists are already on to it and have OIAs put seeking answers
Thank you for your commentary, even though much of it is deeply troubling. The cartoon captures the bleak and dark humour that we Kiwis excel at – unfortunately, it’s all too accurate and aligns with Colleen Brown’s article on the impact of funding cuts and freezes on the Disability Community. It’s no surprise the penguin is giving the korotaha (side-eye). I like to think it’s aimed at the government rather than the photographer!
I won’t repeat my detailed comments on the earlier Disability article you posted, but if I may, I’ll include a link to them here so others can understand the similar challenges and concerns faced by the Dementia Community.
As someone who's recently graduated and then gone onto further study, the job situation is super rough atm. A role requiring less than 3 years experience at mfat had 1,100 applications and other roles have consistently had over 300. Safe to say its not hard to see why people are considering leaving
Totally understand your sentiments. As someone at the other end of my career and working life I too would be taking my skills and knowledge offshore like I have before. Unfortunately, circumstances mean I have to stay here. Best wishes fir success in your job search and career development
A lot of people start a business or buy a franchise because they're too dumb to enter the professions but have a certain sense of entitlement to a 'bigger than average slice of pie'. Then it's "I'm in business now so I'm obviously a National voter". Completely oblivious to the fact that their coffee cart or cafe or florist shop is entirely dependent on the disposable income of ordinary working people. The non-discretionary purchases- fuel, foodstuffs, clothing, household needs, booze (for a lot of NZ'ers) are the domain of the corporation.
Neoclassical economics falsely promises that low rates mean growth. This is false. Friedman and company had to make wild assumptions to reach these incorrect conclusions.
What would the ANZ business confidence level look like if it excluded the FIRE sector of the economy? In some country surveys, this would be separated, but in NZ they chuck the whole lot in.
Also, is the PM speaking tomorrow just to Crow about the CPI release which is also on Wednesday?
The claim that 42% of NZ professionals surveyed are planning to move to Australia in the next twelve months doesn't seem quite right. The report says that "Notably, 42% of New Zealanders are willing to relocate to Australia, underscoring the strong crossborder mobility," while the graphics from the report say that 67% of NZers surveyed are willing to relocate in the next 12 months with 18% definite or fairly definite, and that of those surveyed, 42% see Australia as the top relocation destination, while 33% favour somewhere else in NZ. These are still significant findings, of course.
It rather stuck in my craw that Luxon credited Simple Simeon with doing great things in the transport portfolio. Having trashed it he now gets to weave his nastiness on health. Be afraid, be very afraid....
So in New Zealand we have bumbling incompetence creating a prolonged recession. Meanwhile, in the US, they now have tyrannical incompetence which will undoubtedly lead to an early return to high inflation. I fear that the combination of those two factors could paint an even bleaker picture for our financial future.
How do we compare with the UK on government debt?
Much lower. World bank has stats if you are interested. Private debt in NZ far outweighs govt debt, see Te Kaka from yesterday
https://thekaka.substack.com/p/luxon-flicks-retis-hospital-pass
Release please Bernard
Patrick Medlicott
Sure feels grim. Taking our numpty government[s] out of it for a moment, the reality is NZ needs another success story, some new value at scale, to generate economic activity and trade with the world. Australia was not called The Lucky Country for nothing; all they have to do is keep digging, to maintain relative prosperity for their populace.
All NZ needs to restore our first world status is to restore the first world tax system we enjoyed prior to 1985. In the last 40 years we have systematically moved from a first world to a third world tax system - low personal tax rates for the wealthy, eliminated all capital taxes, low company tax rates & a high indirect tax. In addition, the government has given away billions of dollars in unaffordable, unnecessary tax cuts under Douglas, Richardson, Shipley, Key & now Willis, ($13B in 2024 & borrowed an extra $20B to pay for them). To top it off, the ultra wealthy pay approx. half the tax that the rest of us pay, (David Parker's 2023 research proved this). Tax wise, we've buggered the governments' ability to finance anything worth while.
Agree with all your comments about the tax system. But it's not like the relative success of Oz comes down to any greater vision. Higher wages and stronger economic performance are to be expected in a resource rich country that's willing and able to dig.
Looking at the "strategy" of the Altas Network of privatization, and running down the public service etc. I wonder whether this strategy will come back to bite the super rich when there are not skilled workers, health professionals left in NZ to prop up their lifestyle. It seems to me that appealing to these people on moral and ethical grounds is no use, maybe there should be loud voices pointing out the folly of their strategy on the grounds of self-interest. I would really like to hear some discussion around this idea and would it work?
In the same way that Insurance Companies may teach capitalists about the dangers of climate change, love ironies like this…
Unfortunately, the super-rich are "sorted" and can access the professional services and supports that sustain their lifestyles without issue. Only a redistribution of wealth—through mechanisms such as a wealth tax, capital gains tax, or broader tax reforms—will challenge this status quo. Instead, the policies emerging from our current coalition government seem openly designed to ensure their wealthy mates become even more "sorted." Hopefully, the rest of us are starting to "get it" and react accordingly rather than drink the austerity cool aid being served up.
It certainly will come back to bite the super rich. I'd midway through reading 'End times; elites, counter-elites, and the path to political disintegration' by Peter Turchin. Its a few years old now, but goes into detail on the fall of civilisations and empires throughout time. He predicted the rise of oligopoly in the US, before the first Trump presidency. Gist of his research is that the elite and counter-elite's cause the demise of societies/civilisations. With a touch of disgruntled masses to really tip it over the edge.
Let's hope NZ is more culturally immune to the forces destroying the US currently.
It will bite them, but that may be decades away unfortunately.
They have resources to spend enough time out of NZ. I have uber wealthy friends that live part of the year in Maui. Never have to wait for medical treatment etc when back in NZ because they just open the "cheque book", which is where health professionals that don't want to/can't migrate are moving to.
Exactly. It doesn't matter if you are a gzillionaire if you have a heart attack at midnight we are all in the same boat. You need funded well run hospitals and ED to treat you in the public system. If you take your friends out in your luxury launch and something goes wrong you will be relying on volunteers from the Coastguard and police to assist. When the wildfire gets out of control and your deck collapses into the ocean... we are all in this together! Surely the wealthy realise this. Do they? I never get to talk to the Nicks and the Graemes and the Lynettes, but I would love to.
Their biggest concern is when society collapses, their wealth will not buy them privilege. Cued to a section from the 2022 BBC podcast, The Coming Storm, Thiel and the NZ connection.
https://pca.st/hraxjz2u?t=28m5s
Who would have expected National to be “fixing” the housing market by crashing the economy (reducing the amount people can and are willing to borrow), and driving people overseas to reduce demand. Rents are deceasing too!
Unfortunately, most people still blame the last government and RBNZ for the recession. Very few (outside of the audience here) are willing to acknowledge the fact that the recession has been created by the deliberate collapsing of the infrastructure sector and routing of the public sector. Atlas tentacles are all over this as Seymour and his cronies rub their hands with glee.
While I understand it is driven by Atlas and similar cronies (as well as a knee-capped and/or reluctant and/or incompetent fourth estate), it is truly mind-boggling people still choose to blame the last government, weirdly accusing them of "not delivering" and demonstrating selective memory regarding the pandemic.
There are many, many well thought-out/researched pieces on this platform, crafted by intelligent, experienced, and skilled authors, but - frustratingly - all it seems to do is create a strong echo chamber.
a Newsroom article titled "Hayek's bastards" written by Dame Anne Salmond is essential reading imo.
I've felt this way for a while, I think our country is headed for a credit crunch... it probably already is in one for all I know. Anyone else feel the same way?
My feedback from many friends working in the community sector is that community agencies are having their funding cut and that there is nowhere to refer those in need to. I was stopped by somebody from a government department last week and informed that the Family Court will have considerable cuts in its funding from April onwards. Then we can expect even more tragic cases like the Kahui twins being normal. Is this government devoid of compassion?
Yes Gary, I'm hearing similar - although I'mnot that well networked across the whole Community Sector. Also, some whispering about fear of speaking out as to what the consequences might mean for them and those that use their services. That whisper about the Family Court is deeply troubling if true - hopely good journalists are already on to it and have OIAs put seeking answers
In a word, yes.
Thank you for your commentary, even though much of it is deeply troubling. The cartoon captures the bleak and dark humour that we Kiwis excel at – unfortunately, it’s all too accurate and aligns with Colleen Brown’s article on the impact of funding cuts and freezes on the Disability Community. It’s no surprise the penguin is giving the korotaha (side-eye). I like to think it’s aimed at the government rather than the photographer!
I won’t repeat my detailed comments on the earlier Disability article you posted, but if I may, I’ll include a link to them here so others can understand the similar challenges and concerns faced by the Dementia Community.
https://substack.com/@paulsingh134089/note/c-87428238?r=lnb76
As someone who's recently graduated and then gone onto further study, the job situation is super rough atm. A role requiring less than 3 years experience at mfat had 1,100 applications and other roles have consistently had over 300. Safe to say its not hard to see why people are considering leaving
Totally understand your sentiments. As someone at the other end of my career and working life I too would be taking my skills and knowledge offshore like I have before. Unfortunately, circumstances mean I have to stay here. Best wishes fir success in your job search and career development
Businesses have really got to stop blindly believing anything the National Party throws out.
How they can be surprised that everyday people are not out spending up large right now is incredible.
A lot of people start a business or buy a franchise because they're too dumb to enter the professions but have a certain sense of entitlement to a 'bigger than average slice of pie'. Then it's "I'm in business now so I'm obviously a National voter". Completely oblivious to the fact that their coffee cart or cafe or florist shop is entirely dependent on the disposable income of ordinary working people. The non-discretionary purchases- fuel, foodstuffs, clothing, household needs, booze (for a lot of NZ'ers) are the domain of the corporation.
Amen!!!!
Neoclassical economics falsely promises that low rates mean growth. This is false. Friedman and company had to make wild assumptions to reach these incorrect conclusions.
What would the ANZ business confidence level look like if it excluded the FIRE sector of the economy? In some country surveys, this would be separated, but in NZ they chuck the whole lot in.
Also, is the PM speaking tomorrow just to Crow about the CPI release which is also on Wednesday?
The claim that 42% of NZ professionals surveyed are planning to move to Australia in the next twelve months doesn't seem quite right. The report says that "Notably, 42% of New Zealanders are willing to relocate to Australia, underscoring the strong crossborder mobility," while the graphics from the report say that 67% of NZers surveyed are willing to relocate in the next 12 months with 18% definite or fairly definite, and that of those surveyed, 42% see Australia as the top relocation destination, while 33% favour somewhere else in NZ. These are still significant findings, of course.
Exactly. Bit sloppy
It rather stuck in my craw that Luxon credited Simple Simeon with doing great things in the transport portfolio. Having trashed it he now gets to weave his nastiness on health. Be afraid, be very afraid....
So in New Zealand we have bumbling incompetence creating a prolonged recession. Meanwhile, in the US, they now have tyrannical incompetence which will undoubtedly lead to an early return to high inflation. I fear that the combination of those two factors could paint an even bleaker picture for our financial future.
I don't think it'll just be the financial aspect that will be bleak.
💯 it will not be just a financial impact. I just can’t comprehend the other implications
Same here
Please release asap. Another excellent post Bernard