The world's most important central banker talks his toughest yet about cranking up interest rates to kill off inflation. This spooked fund managers and traders who believe he'll go soft in the end
“I do wonder sometimes whether my substack earnings are designed to pay for all my substack and other subscriptions!” - the future of capitalism isn’t it? You won’t buy a mattress for a few thousand from one of many competing companies. Instead, you’ll pay $50 a month until you die (or learn to sleep on the floor) from the one remaining mattress company that was bought by private equity exercising it’s monopoly to less effectively make worse and less mattresses whilst raising the price. Cheerful Monday thoughts :)
Kia ora Bernard, can you clarify something -- you say "John Burns Murdoch has done a brilliant analysis of global mortality stats that shows America’s opioid, gun crime and obesity epidemics have lowered life expectancy there in recent years". I'm not a FT subscriber so I can't get into the article, but the chart you show only lists data for drugs, violence, and road deaths. Nothing on obesity. Was there data on this in the article?
Why I'm asking: I hear a lot about the effects of the obesity epidemic. But "obesity" isn't a well defined medical term and the research around the health effects of weight gain isn't robust as far as I can see. (It's a tricky one to run controlled studies on). People tend to have a powerful emotional commitment to the idea that BEING FAT MUST BE BAD FOR YOU. So one runs into a lot of motivated cognition around this. One does not run into a lot of strongly supported dispassionate research.
Your comment reminds me of a podcast I listened to last year where they explored how fat shaming was linked to racism in the US. They also interviewed someone who had done a meta-analysis of obesity research, which came back with unexpected results....being slightly overweight is better for longevity that being slim. I would have to re-listen to the episode and do some reading, but as you said, its a very 'emotional commitment' to the idea that fat is bad. Thought it might interest you. I've shared the spotify link, as their website seems to not be working properly. It's episode 148 of the Citations Needed podcast if you don't use spotify :)
Thank you for sharing the (as usual) excellent writing of Danyl Mclauchlan. Coincidentally, I'm in the middle of reading David Graeber's 'Utopia of Rules'. These are a series of long-form essays, and a fascinating explainer for why bureaucracy exists and - as per Danyl's focus - the incentives that cause its corruption.
Bureaucracy is such an easy target for the opposition. Especially as I agree with Danyl that there 'appears' to be a lot of waste this government term. Even if we generously grant than Labour are pointing our country in the right direction with all this spending, they have done a shockingly bad job of communicating *where the money is actually going*. And I expect they'll lose the election on that alone. National and Act will repeal a bunch of stuff and all we will have from billions spent is a bunch of richer lawyers and consultants, plus some thick reports hidden away at the bottom of filing cabinets.
I'm a fan of Danyl's too. I'd like more detail on the waste he's finding in this piece though -- I find it very easy to imagine that a lot of the disjunct between money spent & outcomes achieved will have to do with people being off work due to Covid & the various knock-on disruption effects of that. He's probably still right that government agencies are hiring way too many comms people. But there are maybe more valid reasons projects might be running behind at the moment than he acknowledges.
Yep, agree. To my point, there's just not enough information being shared, so I think he's just expressing the frustration that $100m can be "spent" and the only tangible thing joe-public sees from it are 5 or 6 new hospital beds... The government are happy to keep perpetuating the myth that government spending is constrained just like household spending, but then they seem to spend astronomical sums without anything to show for it - something the average household would really struggle with right now (I realise that's simplistic, but most voters will not)
Danyl, other than present company is the most important political thinker currently.
Bernard, can you get him on Hoon/Facts change or for a deeper dive.
The administrative state is broken.
Let’s hope our next finance minister David is spending his time looking at how to dismantle the administrative state and get additional funding directly to the front line where it’s needed.
Why is it that we expect charities to deliver outcomes with only a single digit % leakage in administrative costs yet turn a blind eye when it’s the state because they’re on ‘our’ team.
Let’s hope there is a Gove/Cummings hidden in the N/Act/TOP caucus who will bend the administrative won’t to the political will
Danyl's is fine work indeed, and I second the motion to get him on a hoon/podcast. You also brought up another excellent thinker in David Graeber. His book Bullshit Jobs is tangentially related to Danyl's column. For those seeking a shorter form, this is the original article that took off and led to the book - https://www.strike.coop/bullshit-jobs/ - well worth reading!
Heaps of good, thought provoking stuff here thanks Bernard - in particular today your quote from Danyl Mclauchlan. As a mental health professional in the early to mid 2000s, we lost the battle. The best practice community mental health model we had worked really hard to establish at our NGO, was swept into the bin as new management established a best business practice. So they told us. Professional health staff were not wanted and the office based work force spread like Omicron. I keep wondering how our government seems so trapped in this fruitless position. Am thinking I might need to have another go at properly reading Jane Kelsey's 'The Fire Economy'.
Being captured is hard to avoid if you've been around long enough. Why regular changes of government aren't such a bad thing, as long as ministers have the power to order changes.
Bernard, a fascinating audio on the genius of Michael Collins & how he financed the Irish revolution of 1919 - 22. It seems we both have an interest in recent Irish history? If Collins had lived & implemented his vision for the Irish Free State, rather than Valera's sterile vision, the Irish Republic would be streets ahead of where it is today. I predict that within 5 years there will be Shinn Fein governments in both Northen Ireland & the Republic, which will fulfil Michael Collin's prediction that the Irish Free State of 1922 was a stepping stone to a united Republican Ireland.
This kala is definitely worth sharing. Your information and analysis is very helpful in trying to understand the chaos. Really appreciate what you do.
Thanks Scott.
“I do wonder sometimes whether my substack earnings are designed to pay for all my substack and other subscriptions!” - the future of capitalism isn’t it? You won’t buy a mattress for a few thousand from one of many competing companies. Instead, you’ll pay $50 a month until you die (or learn to sleep on the floor) from the one remaining mattress company that was bought by private equity exercising it’s monopoly to less effectively make worse and less mattresses whilst raising the price. Cheerful Monday thoughts :)
Thanks Alex! I'm definitely a capitalist. Luckily I earn more than I spend.
Kia ora Bernard, can you clarify something -- you say "John Burns Murdoch has done a brilliant analysis of global mortality stats that shows America’s opioid, gun crime and obesity epidemics have lowered life expectancy there in recent years". I'm not a FT subscriber so I can't get into the article, but the chart you show only lists data for drugs, violence, and road deaths. Nothing on obesity. Was there data on this in the article?
Why I'm asking: I hear a lot about the effects of the obesity epidemic. But "obesity" isn't a well defined medical term and the research around the health effects of weight gain isn't robust as far as I can see. (It's a tricky one to run controlled studies on). People tend to have a powerful emotional commitment to the idea that BEING FAT MUST BE BAD FOR YOU. So one runs into a lot of motivated cognition around this. One does not run into a lot of strongly supported dispassionate research.
Your comment reminds me of a podcast I listened to last year where they explored how fat shaming was linked to racism in the US. They also interviewed someone who had done a meta-analysis of obesity research, which came back with unexpected results....being slightly overweight is better for longevity that being slim. I would have to re-listen to the episode and do some reading, but as you said, its a very 'emotional commitment' to the idea that fat is bad. Thought it might interest you. I've shared the spotify link, as their website seems to not be working properly. It's episode 148 of the Citations Needed podcast if you don't use spotify :)
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5Xc5SquglwxwhjNsV0fPsO?si=d0cba69b1cc5475e
https://academic.oup.com/ahr/article-abstract/118/1/221/43867?login=false
Thanks Leaflemming. Here we go. Fresh link for you. Should let you in. https://on.ft.com/3Axtigz
Thank you for sharing the (as usual) excellent writing of Danyl Mclauchlan. Coincidentally, I'm in the middle of reading David Graeber's 'Utopia of Rules'. These are a series of long-form essays, and a fascinating explainer for why bureaucracy exists and - as per Danyl's focus - the incentives that cause its corruption.
Bureaucracy is such an easy target for the opposition. Especially as I agree with Danyl that there 'appears' to be a lot of waste this government term. Even if we generously grant than Labour are pointing our country in the right direction with all this spending, they have done a shockingly bad job of communicating *where the money is actually going*. And I expect they'll lose the election on that alone. National and Act will repeal a bunch of stuff and all we will have from billions spent is a bunch of richer lawyers and consultants, plus some thick reports hidden away at the bottom of filing cabinets.
I'm a fan of Danyl's too. I'd like more detail on the waste he's finding in this piece though -- I find it very easy to imagine that a lot of the disjunct between money spent & outcomes achieved will have to do with people being off work due to Covid & the various knock-on disruption effects of that. He's probably still right that government agencies are hiring way too many comms people. But there are maybe more valid reasons projects might be running behind at the moment than he acknowledges.
Yep, agree. To my point, there's just not enough information being shared, so I think he's just expressing the frustration that $100m can be "spent" and the only tangible thing joe-public sees from it are 5 or 6 new hospital beds... The government are happy to keep perpetuating the myth that government spending is constrained just like household spending, but then they seem to spend astronomical sums without anything to show for it - something the average household would really struggle with right now (I realise that's simplistic, but most voters will not)
Danyl, other than present company is the most important political thinker currently.
Bernard, can you get him on Hoon/Facts change or for a deeper dive.
The administrative state is broken.
Let’s hope our next finance minister David is spending his time looking at how to dismantle the administrative state and get additional funding directly to the front line where it’s needed.
Why is it that we expect charities to deliver outcomes with only a single digit % leakage in administrative costs yet turn a blind eye when it’s the state because they’re on ‘our’ team.
Let’s hope there is a Gove/Cummings hidden in the N/Act/TOP caucus who will bend the administrative won’t to the political will
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1e9gq9sYIuA
Thanks Julian. Great idea.
Yes. I'd prefer the money was spent on actual services. I'll try to get Danyl on a podcast on this,.
Danyl's is fine work indeed, and I second the motion to get him on a hoon/podcast. You also brought up another excellent thinker in David Graeber. His book Bullshit Jobs is tangentially related to Danyl's column. For those seeking a shorter form, this is the original article that took off and led to the book - https://www.strike.coop/bullshit-jobs/ - well worth reading!
Agreed. His book is very good.
Far out, thanks for sharing that Ode to Joy.
Heaps of good, thought provoking stuff here thanks Bernard - in particular today your quote from Danyl Mclauchlan. As a mental health professional in the early to mid 2000s, we lost the battle. The best practice community mental health model we had worked really hard to establish at our NGO, was swept into the bin as new management established a best business practice. So they told us. Professional health staff were not wanted and the office based work force spread like Omicron. I keep wondering how our government seems so trapped in this fruitless position. Am thinking I might need to have another go at properly reading Jane Kelsey's 'The Fire Economy'.
Being captured is hard to avoid if you've been around long enough. Why regular changes of government aren't such a bad thing, as long as ministers have the power to order changes.
I just fear that everything is moving too fast for politicians - or anyone else - to think properly.
Bernard, a fascinating audio on the genius of Michael Collins & how he financed the Irish revolution of 1919 - 22. It seems we both have an interest in recent Irish history? If Collins had lived & implemented his vision for the Irish Free State, rather than Valera's sterile vision, the Irish Republic would be streets ahead of where it is today. I predict that within 5 years there will be Shinn Fein governments in both Northen Ireland & the Republic, which will fulfil Michael Collin's prediction that the Irish Free State of 1922 was a stepping stone to a united Republican Ireland.