TL;DR: Electoral Commission figures show there were just over 1.060 million missing voters in the election out of a total eligible population of 3.871 million, with enrolment data and surveys showing most were young renters.
That meant the ‘quorum’ for the election was just under 73% of the voting age population, with the vast majority of those missing voters being under the age of 40. The voting rate for the 18-24 year olds is likely to have slumped back towards 50% from over 60% in 2020. These young non-voters were also more likely to be Māori, Pasifika and recent young migrants from China, India and the Philippines.
Both enrolment and voting rates dropped compared to the 2020 election, resulting in 183,169 fewer voters than if we saw the same enrolment and voting rates as in that last election. If they had voted this time, and had voted for a particular party or parties in the same bloc, that would have changed the election result on Saturday.
If even half the missing million had voted, we would have a totally different political landscape. It wouldn’t be a gerontocracy with a democratic deficit in favour of suburban and provincial home and landowners over young renters in apartments and flats.
Elsewhere in the news this morning:
NZ First Leader Winston Peters wants an early deal with National, including a ‘bottom line’ of a fresh Covid inquiry. NZ Herald Thomas Coughlan
National Leader Christopher Luxon told RNZ this morning he wanted to negotiate with ACT and NZ First in a different more private way than done after previous elections, citing his experience doing M&A while in business; and,
Oil prices jumped nearly US$5 a barrel to US$91.50 a barrel on signs Israeli forces will advance into Gaza within the next 48 hours Reuters.
Paying subscribers can see more detail below the paywall fold and hear more of my analysis in the podcast above, which is a combination of a short morning chorus from me alone this morning and a replay of yesterday’s ‘pop-up’ special Hoon webinar at 5pm with
and . I also happy to open this up with permission from paying subscribers, with 50 likes and 50 comments being the thresholds for opening it up. We usually get there.Was there a quorum at the 2023 election?
At what point can you say there wasn’t a quorum for a collective community decision through a vote in a General Election? Many public and private governance bodies set a quora for big decisions. We don’t for our elections, but the issue of lower voter turnout, particularly among the young, worsened again in the weekend election.
The early indications are that total turnout rates for those in the 18-29 age group fell back towards 50% in the election over the weekend, having surged through 60% at the last election. That compares with total turnout rates of closer to 90% for those aged over 60.
There were 692,430 people who enrolled but didn't vote on the weekend and a further 367,608 who were eligible to vote, but did not enrol. We know that 20% of under 40s did not enrol as of Saturday, while only 1% of over 60s had not enrolled. We don’t yet have an estimate of the turnout rates by age of those who enrolled, but we do know that if there had been the same enrolment rate as 2020 (94.1% in 2020 vs 92.6% in 2023) and the same voting rate of those enrolled in 2020 (82.2% in 2020 vs 78.4% in 2023) then there would have been 183,169 more voters than the 2,811,380 who did eventually vote. The overall voting rate as a percentage of the total eligible population fell from 77.4% in 2023 to 72.6% in 2020.
In essence, there were just over 1.060 million missing voters in the election out of a total population eligible to vote of 3.871 million, meaning the ‘quorum’ was just under 73% of the population. The vast majority of those were renters under the age of 40 who were also more likely to be Māori, Pasifika and be recent young migrants from China, India and the Philippines.
Aotearoa’s democratic deficit favouring older land owners over young renters worsened in this election by more than 100,000 to at least half a million voters. We’ll find out more detail after the release of the NZ Election Study next year. It is a mail survey of voters situations, their preferences and demographics. A survey done by a survey company for the Electoral Commission is also expected. Kantar did the survey for the Commission in 2020. The Kantar survey was conducted in the six weeks after the October 17 election of 2020 and released in December of 2020.
This Electoral Commission chart belows shows the total turnouts for the previous three elections (2014, 2017 and 2020), taking into account both enrolment as a share of the eligible population and turnout of those enroled. It shows total voting rates ranging from 60% to 73% for those aged 18 to 39, and rates between 85-90% for those aged over 55 in those three previous elections. Total voting rates for the 18-24 age group sunk as low as 48% in 2014, but bounced over 60% in 2020. Surveys show those who do not vote at their first opportunity after turning 18 tend to never start voting at all.
Possible solutions through The Kākā Project lens
As part of our attempt at solutions journalism, it’s worth having a closer look at how to increase the turnout for young renters from Māori, Pasifika and Asian backgrounds. I welcome your suggestions in the comments below.
In my view, there are three obvious options for ‘nudges’, including:
lowering the voting age from 18 to 16 and making first votes in both a council and general election part of the school curriculum as the final ‘exam’ in a compulsory civic studies course for those in their last three years of school, given there are council and general elections in two out of every three years;
making both enrolment and voting compulsory, but with small ‘citizenship payments’ for all those who vote (possibly $100 per voter to a charity of the voters’ choice), and a larger citizenship payment (possibly $1,000 per voter) for each of the first council and general election votes, rather than a fine; and,
ensuring both council and general elections are administered, promoted and conducted in the same way as general elections by the Electoral Commission, which means a formal day and place for voting, along with both physical and mail-in voting options for two weeks prior to election day.
I’m not a fan of moving to online voting, which is often mentioned as a way to improve youth engagement. I agree with the tech experts who say the stakes and risks of hacking or interference is too high to risk online voting. I also think a proper real-world engagement with an ‘event day’ and actual voting stations is more effective. The key thing is to make it a community event. Sausage sizzles and bouncy castles are useful things.
Links to news, views, papers, reports, data et al elsewhere
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Quotes of the day
The one where Winston Peters had a news conference to say this…
“When we’ve decided what we’re gonna do and who we’re doing it with, we’ll let you know.” NZ First Leader Winston Peters
The ones where Christopher Luxon describes his ‘M&A’ style
“I’ve done a lot of mergers and acquisitions and I’ve done a lot of negotiations. Getting the chemistry and getting the relationship right is the platform and the foundation for actually then being able to work your way through the transactional issues.” Luxon talking to reporters yesterday, via RNZ.
“We were in a position where we did need a big reset of the party, and I’ve done a lot of turnaround jobs in my past life,” Luxon told Bloomberg before the election campaign. “And a lot of the lessons of how you lead through those periods are very transferable into this political environment.” Bloomberg-gift
The one where Luxon says this deal will be done privately
“I have watched elections in New Zealand after results and I just think out of respect, I'm trying to build a really serious, constructive, positive government, and for that to happen, I need to be able to work with those individual parties and make sure that that is confidential and private and negotiated rather than trying to do it all through a blow-by-blow out in the public domain.” Luxon talking on RNZ this morning.
Chart of the day
Who enrolled and who didn’t as of Oct 1
Maps of the day
How the planet’s water cycle is ‘spinning out of balance’
Cartoon of the day
Ka kite ano
Bernard
Monday’s Chorus: The missing 1,060,038 voters