70 Comments

An outline of Bayesian probability that is understandable!

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Ha! thanks David.

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Absolutely open this up please. It seems those who profited from Covid are businesses and asset( house owners). The only ones who “took it for the team are the poor and powerless”. This is what capitalism is about and always has been. I see the “little man in short pants “wants to open up and get more slaves in to service the neoliberal machine. Again more 20th century economic claptrap. Meanwhile the planet burns, freezes, droughts, floods , wars and blows while the human deluded lemmings only cognisant of their pocketbooks, head towards Armageddon.

Actually it may have arrived.? I have joined the Green party. Sad about James Shaw but we need younger blood ? Chloe or could we import the young lady from Sweden. Greta Thunberg. Time to cease “magical thinking”.

Thanks Bernard.

Patrick Medlicott

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Hi Patrick

Do you think Immigration can process Greta's citizenship before next year's election? Fifteen months is a pretty tight time scale for them to do anything.

And how will she get here? There's no round-the-world yacht race she could hitch a ride with. Maybe she could stay in Sweden and do everything by zoom.

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Ha!

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She could fly? She flew her sailing crew back home from New York. The only benefit having her here is the amount it would rile up old middle class white men!

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She could speak at some Groundswell meetings I guess

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Thanks Patrick. Will do.

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Thanks Bernard, I agree with your call. Suggest this would be a good one for open access. While I think many are concerned about inequality (just like climate change) few are prepared to take any financial hit to make the situation better. I'd like more recognition of the flow on effects of reducing inequality by lifting benefits. These include better health (more vege less white bread), improved education (more kids staying in school), improved productivity (if you know where your next meal is coming from and can afford to run your car you are more likely to be "job ready") etc. All things that I'm sure most people would agree are good for NZ.

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The flow on effects you list Sonya, are also those found in studies of UBI. Seems to me unsurprising that nurturing has better outcomes than scapegoating.

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Thanks Sonya. Will do. Indeed on the flow-on effects of reducing inequality. It's a pity Treasury don't appear to do any actuarial-style wellbeing analysis on these issues with a proper discount rate well below 5%.

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Would there be any benefit in another public shame campaign over Covid subsidies? I know it was tried earlier and a few corporates paid back. But now that more time has passed it is clear from company financial results that most indeed didn't need the welfare. This would make the case for either a voluntary return or a windfall tax more compelling.

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Another brilliant and innovative idea that needs more exposure. Perhaps a discussion or debate between an expert commentator like you and another “expert” like Mike Hosking conducted by Jack Tame is called for. This needs to be aired in Mainstream media somewhere. I think I’ll suggest it to TVNZ’s Q & A.

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Great idea! Surefire ratings winner. You never know. There are a few subscribers to The Kaka who produce all these shows.

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Damn good idea!! Would love to see that!!

Only ,Hoskins would bottle out for sure!

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Good idea Steve

P

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We all know its political suicide to be proposing taxes that will turn off the swing voter right? Trying to do the complete right thing doesn't help if you loose and someone else drives and goes hard right instead.

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Hi Chris

Yeah, Labour is going to be trying for a third term and that is not the time to be proposing new taxes.

However if the polls are suggesting Labour is going to lose regardless, then they could actually pass the legislation for new taxes and dare National to say if they'll repeal them. Cutting taxes equals cutting health, education and law enforcement .

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That would be extremely incongruous, it's Robertson's MO to pull out a nice juicy bribe mid-campaign to turbo at the finish line. Locking in their defeat to take a pyrrhic stand is not in the MP's interests.

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Well, I was suggesting in a way that NZ Inc was more important than their own baubles of office.

Plus how do they do it when they have a swath of back bench MPs who are only there because of a 50% vote share and are looking at being one term MPs.

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I'd bet on the middle-class spending/tax offer in next year's Budget. Another version of interest free student loans, three-years fees free, tax threshold changes...

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Instead of introducing a new tax just add another tax rate band for PAYE/Company tax delivering the windfall to the rest of the voters via a corresponding drop in GST. See

https://thekaka.substack.com/p/tuesdays-chorus-whos-to-blame-for/comment/7822057

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That's another way, although that would punish those who did give it back.

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Very sad to see Shaw hit the bin, he's been a good moderating influence on the fringes in the Greens.

A great opportunity for the Nats to offer him a clear run at a safe seat and establish a Teal party that can work with them not just labour.

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The Nats don't have the vision or the intelligence to establish a Teal Party. If you don't believe me, read 'Blue Blood' by Andrea Vance. It exposes the Nats as batshit crazy ferals & the latest leader won't improve the situation.

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Politicians are almost all some level of self interested narcissists, I don't think it's a long bow to draw to see them understanding that having a new Teal party pull some of the Green support directly benefits them this election and potentially for many terms to come.

Long term thinking isn't the corporate knife fighter's core skillset but patronage and spiking the opponents wheels sure are. If it happens to be good for the country too so be it.

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I've dealt with Nats for 50 years in business & church circles. All that motivates them is greed because money buys power & power buys control. Look at the Anglo-American sphere of which we're part - every Right wing party is reprehensible: The Liberals in Australia with a neo fascist as their new leader; the Republicans in the USA who openly support Trump's attempt to subvert democracy through violence; & the Tories in the UK whose leadership contest is a shit show of delusional., idiotic clowns. "Blue Blood' confirms that the NZ Nats are no different. The reason is simple - neo liberalism is based on unlimited greed & control by the elites & Right wing parties have been implementing these policies for 40 years. When your driving force is greed, there's no room for compassion or co-operation & corrosive back stabbing & character assassination become the norm - thieves will always fall out. 'Blue Blood' confirms that - it makes a sobering read.

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I see it as a win, win also Chloe gets coleader for the next election, James stays on doing the excellent work he’s done and everyone’s happy given he’s strong on environment but cost of living and future for the young will be the engaging factor for the next election. Also Chloe now has experience on the Finance and expenditure committee which is important 😀

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I haven't seen that Chloe will stand. She has been very quiet so far.

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I think that's unlikely. Teal Party is a National wet dream. Shaw is committed to working only with Labour, which means he and the Greens have no leverage in any negotiation.

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No one in the Greens can afford to be attached to position if it’s an option to put up a more electable candidate as leader then they should and Chloe is this does not detract from excellent work done at all.

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Probably no room for two Maori Parties either and they do excellent work as well so I don’t think it should be reported in classic oppositional zero sum game terms.

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A windfall tax on businesses, banks & property owners is a brilliant idea, Bernard. Hell, if the UK Tories can do it, why not us?

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Exactly Dean. Although there's a few that argue it will cost Rishi his leadershp chances. I must check what Liz Truss is planning.

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Liz Truss will be planning to say whatever gets her over the line! lol

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Yes any sort of ongoing windfall tax & widespread rebate would be very welcome.

Why not deliver the rebate via a corresponding drop in the GST rate, even if temporary?

This would be universal instead of a targeted handout, everybody would benefit.

It would counter the inflationary effects of temporary global grain prices rise & shipping costs like the temporary removal of the fuel excise has countered the temporary oil price rises which are now coming down.

It would be significantly less complex & less costly to deliver than targeted payments through the IRD or W&I.

See

https://thekaka.substack.com/p/tuesdays-chorus-whos-to-blame-for/comment/7822057

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Interesting point. I am a fan of wealth for consumption tax swaps. John Key actually considered something similar ( a land tax for income tax swap), but ended up doing the GST increase for income tax swap.

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Yeah but once again a Government misled the public to get into power promising no gst then doing it. That’s unacceptable.

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Does anyone here have any background knowledge on how/why the Greens decided on a 25% threshold for ousting a leader? (I've been a member in the past & I'm aware this is a party that takes a "don't walk the walk, sprint the walk" approach to good democratic practice, but giving this much power to any given 25% of your membership is extreme, even for them).

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Part of the constitution. It will force a contest, if there's another bidder.

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Yeah, I know -- I was curious how it got there. Someone on here may happen to know. (I mean the answer will be, idealism, based on the principle that if 25% of the membership is unhappy, you're doing it wrong. And personally I think Shaw has been a well intentioned, very unlucky, very hard working disaster for the party, so in this case I'm quite pleased. But as a constitutional principle, a 25% veto seems like a bomb waiting to go off).

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Well worth the read

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/mediawatch/audio/2018850576/criticism-of-mini-doco-funding-hits-a-dead-end

"On the air Walls had referred to $20,000 of Film Commission funding but said he wasn’t sure how Siouxsie and the Virus had been funded.

It turned out that sum relates to a different project yet to be made.

Loading Docs producer Julia Parnell told Mediawatch that Loading Docs provided $6,000 in production finance and $2000 towards the post-production for Siouxsie and the Virus.

The funding model requires filmmakers to raise other funds themselves via crowdfunding.

Parnell told Mediawatch Siouxsie and the Virus raised $7685 through the crowdfunding platform ‘Boosted’.

Ironically the mini-doco was also boosted by the New Zealand Herald back in 2020. "

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Yep. That's why the article was pulled.

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I think there is a massive difference between receiving a govt handout and having your house gain value during the same period. Yes handouts should be handed back. But trying to skim money of house owners is too much. Bernard you love to point out how much capital gain homeowners are getting. Problem is It’s not real money! If everyone who owned a house sold today to “release their capital gains” the market would crash and house prices would collapse. What would be the gain be then? The reality that the housing market had become speculative like the sharemarket makes my head hurt.

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Thanks CraigB. Plenty of people do sell properties (and have in the last year) to capture that capital gain, which is very real and very much unearned. Many are able to leverage it up by withdrawing equity from floating facility. The criticism of 'it's just paper' is sort of valid for those with one property and all sorts of ties to a place that make it impossible to move, although they could also leverage up their equity, as many have done over the last two or three years. That's where many of the investors came from. First time investors feeling the FOMO and seeing equity galore in their homes.co.nz valuations.

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Thanks Bernard, Yes I’m only talking about who’s house is their only big asset not investors speculators etc. I know owning a house has become unattainable for many, this is wrong and only a recent phenomenon.

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Agree family homes must be sacrosanct as they are a need and new builds encouraged because there simply aren’t enough and it’s a human right and need.

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We caught up with friends from Queensland a couple of months ago.The average house price in their city is $350,000 and if you’re a first home buyer the Govt will give you the deposit. Tasty Cheese is $10 a kg. Why not so here?

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Exactly. Pirates everywhere it’s a Kiwi tradition rob the poor to feed the rich and privileged then the manbabies scream the loudest and are incredibly aggressive and oppressive regardless of laws, fairness or equity and it goes right to the top. Just brats.

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Aussie has its problems giving handouts (bribes) to sports clubs and big business as well especially big polluters though. So they could be way better off and without all our mortgage and interest payments propping up their banks as well and being taken offshore from our economy (courtesY of NZ ? Reserve bank and Treasury) as well.

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Open it up.

Although I do think trying to extract windfall money will get the same reaction as asking lotto winners to give up their winnings.

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Ha! I'm off a few Christmas card lists.

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Bernard, how would your one-off land tax work in practice? When would I, as a property owner, need to find the money to pay it? Asking because I 100% support the principle of taxes on capital gains, but as a practical matter, I own one property and the only time I'd have the ability to pay any percentage of its paper value is if I was selling it. Would I need to take out a new mortage to pay the tax on the rise in value? SO much better for me if property prices could just... fall.

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Thanks Leaflemming. You could take out a mortgage, or sell some land. I'd actually prefer the Govt 'lent' it back at same as the Govt bond rate, which would alllow either a slow payback from earnings and savings, or payment on estate settlement for those in that position. Very much hoping you are not.

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Oh, death wouldn't stop me commenting on here Bernard. Though having to work hard enough to pay off another mortgage might.

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Yes not practical as too many people can’t get them anyway which is why Govt needs to act. It’s all too targeted at the wealthy if you’re older , single, or have kids or not getting. high rates of pay or child support and maintenance or family (as per various acts) then you don’t have those choices or ability via Private banks who ARE supported by Govet preferentially to people as gatekeeping profiteering, price gouging middle men.

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I think this is an extremely important article for all New Zealanders. Also, may I say how disgusted I am by NZME. Such blatant hypocrisy goes far beyond the pot calling the kettle black, theirs was an attack piece, plain and simple. Absolutely pathetic. Thank you for your excellent coverage, as ever

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Thanks Regan.

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Good ideas. Had the business relief all been loans this would have to occur.

Much was to support employees, so why didn’t it?…showing up instead as profit.

Newstalk ZB has reported the unemployment rate is 11 percent not three.

I’m am always concerned the figures reported miscount women working in unpaid labour usually alone on inadequate funds to care for children and who are not getting their or their children’s legal rights to adequate maintenance, child support and property share made available to them to live at a reasonable standard and afford or have shelter and services they need in these vulnerable and formative years with no access to Justice. Obviously this causes chaos both then and later.

The millions granted to sports, media and business should all be loans and grants should have gone to individuals most in need of course and for services and infrastructure required. I do approve of the funding for new builds but it didn’t need to be left in the gatekeeping, profiteering private banks and still doesn’t. There is a lot to fix isn’t there?

The “poverty effect” doesn’t work for anyone really but business have been disproportionately well served, a debt taxpayers will owe, by this Government providing them another “windfall” agreed.

Media keep reporting inaccuracies as well which is shoddy work. Is the beneficiary rate 3 percent or 11 percent? Your example was shoddy work to report inaccurately about the funds used as well. They just keep mouthing off with their reckons and with no evidence or analysis done. That should be a firing offence for a Journalist because someone’s lying or useless at their research bamboozling the poor public.

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