The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Monday’s Chorus: National's tax hole widens to $2.44b

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Monday’s Chorus: National's tax hole widens to $2.44b

New Treasury interest deductibility data show National's tax shortfall is $110m/yr higher than forecast; Just seven Immigration NZ staff on AEWV visa checks; Chart of the day; Cartoon of the day
It’s a bit bigger than that: the gap between National’s forecast of lost tax revenues from changes to tax rules for landlords and what Treasury predicts is significant, and adds to the $500 million a year predicted shortfall from its foreign buyers tax . File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The Kākā

TL;DR: So it turns out National’s forecast of lost tax revenues from removing interest deductibility is undercooked to the tune of around $110 million per year, adding to the $500 million a year shortfall from its foreign buyers tax.

Combined over a four year period, the shortfall adds up to $2.44 billion or a sixth of National’s proposed tax cuts of $14.6 billion. The higher tax forgone by removing taxes on landlords also means $2.66 billion or 18% of the benefits of the full package go to landlords, which is before the income tax cuts.

Also in today’s full newsletter below and the podcast above for paying subscribers:

  • MSD is now charging people in motels and caravans 25% of their income in rent, which has built up another $60 million in welfare debt, on top of the $1 billion already there, and the $3.5 billion in debt to MSD, IRD and Justice overall by low income families;

  • Immigration NZ now has just seven staff members checking Accredited Employers’ Work Visas and the employers themselves, down from 15 a year ago;

  • Nicola Willis has pledged to quit as a National Finance Minister if her numbers are wrong and she can’t deliver the $14.6 billion in tax cuts;

  • After just eight months of 2023, the NOAA estimates with 95% confidence that 2023 will be the planet’s hottest year on record;

  • Debt to MSD has risen $60 million because it has started charging rent to the 7,500 residents of emergency accommodation in motels, relocatibles and caravans; and,

  • Look out this week for the first leaders’ debate of the election campaign between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins on Tuesday night, along with GDP data due on Thursday and expected to show the economy is out of recession.

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National’s tax hole just got $110m bigger per year

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