A clear National/ACT win on Oct 14 may unleash a 10-20% rise in house prices in late spring auctions, given tax repeals, tighter fiscal policy, looser migration settings & building freezes
Its a sad day when our electoral choices are between which one will be the least worst - and given that none of the choices we are presented with seem to care about getting our blessing for anything they do - I wonder if it is even worth the trouble of voting.
I think it's fair a change in government would lead to greater growth than otherwise but there are some other constraints which haven't been touched on here.
Not least affordability - currently the proportion of average income required to service an 80% mortgage is 51%, essentially worst on record and it won't improve unless interest rates materially fall or property values materially fall - neither is expected.
There's also the DTI limits which will likely come in by March.
Both of these will cap demand regardless of goverment.
And how long would it take to unwind the interest deductibility rules? Not sure it'd happen immediately. It's not exactly the number one concern right now - cost of living and climate change surely higher?
The major problem is one that is just a magnified version of the threat to humanity from the singularly profit motivated business corporation.
Isn't the Alignment Problem just so similar to the issues with trying to manage the complex system of the current economic environment of the combined mining, finance, manufacturing, retailing & political influence sectors and the resulting detrimental effect on the ecological environment & human society as a whole?
Enjoyed your korero with Damien Grant on The Working Group last night enormously Bernard. Shame we don't get to see the YouTube chat when Bomber re posts the live stream, twilight zone stuff, hilarious
Whatever you say Bernard "Tony Alexander" Hickey. You're probably right though especially since rbnz have signalled this is the peak of interest rates.
No you are right Bernard, the majority sadly, are not like Jenny or Mr Anderson and will vote for the Devil they know. Or feel hopeless enough not to vote at all. And it doesn't matter if that is Labour or National, same same. House prices are doomed to rise and along with them, rentals. So, advice to grandparents: clear out the spare room this winter, and put a couple of bunks in the garage, because your kids and their kids and all their gear are moving in, come October 15th! As for you Ciaran, it is always worth the trouble of voting, just do your homework and use your natural intelligence and vote for the minor party that would best serve you. It will help them to stay on track and try again next time. Then you can sleep at night because the non-voting public get the government they deserve, as well as those who vote for whatever they last heard on the telly.
May 31, 2023·edited May 31, 2023Liked by Bernard Hickey
The housing predictions sound a lot like a sales pitch. Not from you Bernard, but from the oracles.
On the matter of mitigating the risk of extinction from so called AI. A part from the hubris of it all, we need to attribute responsibility to them, they're the humans building, using and profiting from the technology.
I'm curious to know how many of these 350 AI people are also part of the weird effective altruist / longtermist eugenics cult that has engulfed the tech sector. Hopefully someone is doing the investigation, I'm sure they are.
Btw eugenics has a long history within Silicon Valley, EA and longtermism are just the current flavours.
What a mammoth task to put such detail into future political forecast. Inclusion of historical facts to show how NZ has reached such unfair housing prospects for so many makes interesting reading. Need a visionary to steer NZ to better equality.
Its a sad day when our electoral choices are between which one will be the least worst - and given that none of the choices we are presented with seem to care about getting our blessing for anything they do - I wonder if it is even worth the trouble of voting.
Sounds a bit spruiker-ish Bernard!
I think it's fair a change in government would lead to greater growth than otherwise but there are some other constraints which haven't been touched on here.
Not least affordability - currently the proportion of average income required to service an 80% mortgage is 51%, essentially worst on record and it won't improve unless interest rates materially fall or property values materially fall - neither is expected.
There's also the DTI limits which will likely come in by March.
Both of these will cap demand regardless of goverment.
And how long would it take to unwind the interest deductibility rules? Not sure it'd happen immediately. It's not exactly the number one concern right now - cost of living and climate change surely higher?
Isn't there an inherent profit advantage to banks predicting an ever upward rise in land & property prices?
People are far more more likely to take out ever larger mortgages if that is so.
Not that the predictions are inherently self-service, but is it skewing the results?
Via
https://substack.com/profile/58285908-david-mohring/note/c-16729981
The major problem is one that is just a magnified version of the threat to humanity from the singularly profit motivated business corporation.
Isn't the Alignment Problem just so similar to the issues with trying to manage the complex system of the current economic environment of the combined mining, finance, manufacturing, retailing & political influence sectors and the resulting detrimental effect on the ecological environment & human society as a whole?
We need more Wisdom along with more intelligence.
Enjoyed your korero with Damien Grant on The Working Group last night enormously Bernard. Shame we don't get to see the YouTube chat when Bomber re posts the live stream, twilight zone stuff, hilarious
Whatever you say Bernard "Tony Alexander" Hickey. You're probably right though especially since rbnz have signalled this is the peak of interest rates.
No you are right Bernard, the majority sadly, are not like Jenny or Mr Anderson and will vote for the Devil they know. Or feel hopeless enough not to vote at all. And it doesn't matter if that is Labour or National, same same. House prices are doomed to rise and along with them, rentals. So, advice to grandparents: clear out the spare room this winter, and put a couple of bunks in the garage, because your kids and their kids and all their gear are moving in, come October 15th! As for you Ciaran, it is always worth the trouble of voting, just do your homework and use your natural intelligence and vote for the minor party that would best serve you. It will help them to stay on track and try again next time. Then you can sleep at night because the non-voting public get the government they deserve, as well as those who vote for whatever they last heard on the telly.
The housing predictions sound a lot like a sales pitch. Not from you Bernard, but from the oracles.
On the matter of mitigating the risk of extinction from so called AI. A part from the hubris of it all, we need to attribute responsibility to them, they're the humans building, using and profiting from the technology.
I'm curious to know how many of these 350 AI people are also part of the weird effective altruist / longtermist eugenics cult that has engulfed the tech sector. Hopefully someone is doing the investigation, I'm sure they are.
Btw eugenics has a long history within Silicon Valley, EA and longtermism are just the current flavours.
https://www.wired.com/story/effective-altruism-artificial-intelligence-sam-bankman-fried/
https://www.salon.com/2022/08/20/understanding-longtermism-why-this-suddenly-influential-philosophy-is-so/
Edit: Another article on the current threats that these people don't worry about because it doesn't impact them and they're more worried about their fantasy of the future. https://www.disconnect.blog/p/dont-listen-to-the-godfather-of-ai
What a mammoth task to put such detail into future political forecast. Inclusion of historical facts to show how NZ has reached such unfair housing prospects for so many makes interesting reading. Need a visionary to steer NZ to better equality.
This 10-20% a bold call, Bernard, but I'll start by wagering a chocolate fish that ACT/National is not the winning ticket.