29 Comments

Bernard, what would the increase in the cost of putting a roof over your head be if you only rented from the age of 18 until you were at the average life expectancy age? As opposed to buying a house and all of the costs associated with that. It must be in the millions.

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Thanks Ted. You’re right. It’s more expensive to rent in the long run. The problem is the deposit and getting the loan. That’s the advantage the landlord was (usually) born with.

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Looking forward to the Hoon Bernard, always a great korero to wind down from the work week.

Have to say I'm somewhat amazed (and perhaps even a little frightened) that a political party that can barely organize themselves are polling as the best party to run the country.

Any thoughts on the TOP tax alert from Raf this morning?

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March 10, 2022
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There are enough minor parties for everyone’s taste Greens, ACT, Maori Party, NZF, TOP, Social Credit, Conservatives…none could be worse or have more sown up to status quo policy and politics than Labour and National. Which have got NZ exactly nowhere socially or internally.

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Clearly you haven't seen how many parties the Dutch have. But the Greens have been very useful (as a smaller party). Given that they are the only party demanding a rent freeze and that so many renters are hurting they deserve to be much bigger!

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LOL fair call Martin

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No one likes being seen to have women, children and newborns uncared for and neglected in tents. I think this is a reaction to Labour being no different from National except in PR and announcements and promises unfulfilled. National is there for the rich the ones who need support least. It’ll be depressing if Kiwis continue to flip flop between those two parties rather than the alternatives. It’s like people are still habitually conditioned to the first past the post two party system which went decades ago.

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Sadly its probably voters hear Nationals "tax cuts" during times of high inflation and increased living costs and believes that will help them out of their financial hole. That and to much air time for Ardern over the last 2 years and people are looking for a new face & voice. And here's hoping TOP's message starts getting some cut through as a genuine alternative to the BAU policies that Labour & National keep offering up.

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March 10, 2022
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Main media outlets cover Labour & National heavily due to their polling which means the smaller parties never grow their polling as no exposure. So barring the main media organisations making a conscious effort to profile the minor parties they are toast

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Yes. There is a chicken and egg problem there. Parliamentary presence is the key. Politics is dominated by the way Parliament is covered from the Parliamentary Press Gallery. It’s hard to break in unless you’re a party with actual MPs.

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Thanks Mr Anderson. Great to see you yesterday. Still trying to find that tax alert. I have a long interview with Raf I’ll put up this weekend, in which he talks about it.

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"I still don’t understand why employers in Wellington and Auckland in particular are not screaming from the rooftops for more affordable housing": Bernard, is a plausible answer to this question that employers tend to be property owners who benefit more from high rents, dollar for dollar, than they suffer from scarcity of employees?

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Could be...which would suggest their business is a hobby and their real activity is rentier

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I'm not qualified to assess Keith Woodford's estimate of the value of agribusiness to the A-NZ economy, even if he showed his working, which I notice he doesn't; but I've met his argument for a split-gas approach before, and it always seems to translate to "don't make us stop emitting methane, we can't afford to; also, don't charge us for emitting methane, we can't afford it; also, don't worry that methane is many times more powerful than CO2 as a warming agent, it doesn't last as long in the atmosphere so we're fine! Really! Also technology will solve cow emissions soon! Steady as she goes, don't rock that boat". It's a lot to encode in three little words. When you read "split-gas approach", be aware that money is talking.

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Wonder if you saw the Sally Army presser on The Commerce lots report on Supermarkets and the suggestion that allowing more stores to sell alcohol would make things better. Which is pretty horrible!

Salvation army...

https://www.salvationarmy.org.nz/news/salvation-army-concerned-about-impact-high-groceries-prices-and-wider-availability-alcohol-most 🔥🔥🔥

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Ugh, supermarkets. Just popped into Countdown to grab some kai after a run. 3 items, one on special, one a club card special. At the self checkout I swiped my club card, no club card special, no special special either, would have queried it but I was out of lunch hour and the min wage staff dont need me going off on them for what's probably not their fault, deeply unimpressed none the less

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My wife catches out that kinda crap all the time at Countdown. If that happened in her native Canada the manager would grovel and comp the subject grocery item to free

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I agree about the loyalty card schemes. There’s something deeply unfair and dodgy about them I can’t quite put my finger on. I’ll keep digging on that.

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Thankyou Kathy. I had missed that. Yes. Alcohol a tough one. Hard to build a competitor without making it easy for them to sell alcohol, but...

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Interesting that Paul Majurey acted for Marina Developers (and against mana whenua) in the Kennedy Point Boat Harbour Ltd case in the environment court. Clearly marina developments in the Gulf are pretty dicey in terms of destroying the bio diversity in the moana. Most all of the Waiheke Community being against the taking over of the commons by a private company (7.2 hectares given by AC to the company for nix.

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That’s interesting. Hadn’t known that. Cheers.

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No, most people don't realise that this private business got so much sea for free. And I suspect this won't be happening again, given all the protests that have happened. Waiheke Community groups have been fighting these sorts of unsustainable (for the old boys) developments for the last 10 years. And spent millions doing so not to mention the free hours of volunteers. Always gets me wondering about AC's legal bills and what the break down is and if Councillors actually know which firms make the most millions from fighting off community groups.

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Gary Dyall

Yes quite odd really especially as Paul was one of the Treaty of Waitangi negotiators for my Iwi Ngati Tamatera and other Iwi in reaching a Hauraki settlement with the Crown.

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Yes, there has been a variety of appeals to Environment Court, High Court & Supreme Court plus a case against Auckland Council is in the HC at present. It's an interesting one in terms of who was consulted, who was listed by AC as to who should be consulted & lastly how much the NZ Police have spent on removing protestors from the site of a Kororā colony that is smack bang in the middle of the construction area. There is egg on many faces but the real casualty is the sea. And the island.

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Gary Dyall

It is interesting to see the poll ratings between Luxon and Adern. As the P.M. Adern hasn’t had an easy ride especially when you look at events such as White Island, the Islam massacre,COVID and the riots at Parliament. Overall, I think she’s done pretty well, but her Government didn’t do too well on some of Labour’s election promises such as social policies. However, it would be interesting to see how Luxon reacts when he has the blow torch on the belly on National’s election promises and the equivalent of similar events experienced by the current Government.

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Indeed. FIring up blowtorches for both sides as we speak. That is a lovely phrase. I first heard it in Australia. Paul Keating used it a lot. The scariest, brightest and most brilliant politician I’ve ever covered. Deeply flawed. Yet...

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Sorry Bernard for plagiarising with out giving credit to who made the phrase.

Others I like is ‘ he’s a sandwich short of a picnic ‘, ‘ he’s got 2 brains one’s lost and the other is looking for it ‘ and ‘ if he had a brain he would be dangerous’.

Unfortunately, I haven’t had the opportunity to use any one of them yet but perhaps closer to the election. However, I will acknowledge that the use of any of the phrase originates from Mr Keating.

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Seems that these really are just tweaks only. My take is that lenders may well still opt to conduct in-depth, evidenced due diligence on borrowers since it's their hide on the line if, for example, a borrower inadvertently misrepresents their income/outgoings. I don't see this 'turning on the taps' much at all. It's the LVRs and interest rates that really drive things

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Thanks Gregwani. I suspect there’s a lot in what you say. But the mortgage brokers and the banks have been chafing against the extra hoops to jump through. I suspect it was used as a reason to say no in Nov and Dec and Jan by the banks as they struggled to turn their supertankers around to get their LVR shares under 5-10%. I think they’re almost there now and can start lending more again. Banks are keen to lend more into housing. It’s been the core reason for their $6b of profits in the last year. Such easy, low-risk money. It’s too tempting to hold back from for long.

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