Auckland City and Wellington City house prices down 17% and 20% in July from their late 2021 peaks; All of NZ down 10.9%; RBNZ and others forecast NZ-wide fall of 15-20%; Why that's as far as it goes
Neoliberal 20th century capitalism giving to the landowners and landlords while the slaves keep them there. Why cant anyone think beyond their pocketbook! Greedy little b…ers . They cannot look beyond their fossil fuel supercharged noses. Armageddon is almost at tipping point.
30/30 is a resonant, slogan-worthy wee phrase, but I’ve never heard it expressly from its proponents. So could the doubters – emboldened by your analysis, Bernard! – weaponise it in the interests of human decency by calling it into multi-disciplinary question and encouraging vigorous investigation of its foundations? Would be nice to have some policy debate focused on measurable stuff rather than infinitely debatable values.
Open this up to the public. Restricting this information to only those who can pay parallels the structures that support and maintain gross inequities in NZ society.
Excellent analysis as usual, Bernard. So depressing. I wouldn't buy my own house with today's prices, it's nuts!
I encourage my youngsters to buy as soon as they can, to vote as left as they can and to be informed. If at 16 they were able to understand the sovereign monetary concept so does anyone who is interested in educating themselves. Unfortunately most people are happy chappy in their ignorance. Most unfortunate that these people can vote and 16yo needs to fight for it.
I'd recommend we think hard who we vote for in 2023. Labour needs a kick of their collective back side towards the left so I'm considering Greens or MP. Still waiting to see what TOP will bring.
"Don’t wait for the ‘grown-ups’ to fix the supply shortages or change the tax rules to improve affordability." There are no grown-ups in Parliament when it comes to housing.
When a person buys a residential property for themself they have to pay tax on their income and then pay mortgage interest, rates and insurance with their after tax income. When a person buys (or already owns) a second (or more) residential property Luxon is going to let them deduct mortgage interest, rates and insurance from their income and then pay tax on their remaining income (if any) from their rental property(ies). In addition Luxon is going to let people who own two or more residential properties deduct all rental property (whether rented or speculative) losses from their other income. All this gives those people who are rich enough to buy a second (or more) residential property a colossal/enormous/huge/massive financial advantage over people who are buying a home for themself. This is not surprising because Luxon owns a multitude of residential properties.
Therefore, financially, Luxon is being a vicious thug against people who are currently buying their own home and all New Zealanders who are yet to purchase a residential property for themself. Luxon seems to be ignorant/oblivious/unaware that he has blatantly exposed/revealed his ignominious greed and fiendish/heinous brutality against all New Zealanders who are currently buying their own home or are renting the dwelling the live in.
(thuggery of National Party politicians being a current topic in the NZ media)
The Labour party had similar leadership issues to the National party during its 9 years in the wilderness. But it used that time to develop transitional strategies and policies for addressing issues relating to future work, social wellbeing, climate change and taxation equity. During its first term in office, the LP also took time out to evaluate and report on historical social issues, home building and transport alternatives even while facing off disasters like the CH-Ch massacre, the geothermal explosion and of course the worldwide disruptive pandemic. Despite its apparently negative polls, it appears the LP may actually be quite well placed early in 2023 to announce credible policies for the future, backed by a budget for implementation and supported by experienced MPs that should give it a good chance for winning a third term.
On the other hand, during its time in the wilderness, the few remaining supposedly “entitled” MPs in the National Party have simply been “holding the Govt to account” over its implementation record (albeit during an extraordinary pandemic), injecting the odd dog whistle about the Maori co-governance while flaunting the NPs dubious image of being “tough on crime”. With the usual tabloid media backing, the party seems to believe this will be enough to win back the support of middle class they once enjoyed under John Key. Otherwise there doesn’t seem to be any NP strategy to address the issues of the future – with no policies to address inflation, global trade (in a climate of increasing hostility), social unrest and a fairer taxation system to finance long term infrastructure deficiencies. Instead, the NP appears to be hoping to recruit a diverse group of 30 brand new MPs to strengthen the perception it has not run out of ideas. Presumably if the Party (with its ACT supporters) win the next election, many of these newbie MPS will be thrust into ministerial positions without any real guiding policies and experience to implement them.
Sorry Bernard, but I'm struggling to understand how you think you can call that prices are "bottoming out". Its certainly a plausible possibility, but its far far from certain.
You seem to be basing it on the assumption that prices will fall by the amount predicted by the RBNZ. But if you actually look at their predictions, they saw prices bottoming out in 2024. Assuming their 15% price fall prediction remains correct, but they got the timelines that wrong is pretty wild leap of logic
In addition, you point to a slight bounce in Wellington prices - but you ignore they fell at twice the average monthly falls the previous month, so any bounce is likely just noise. And at the same time Auckland prices fell 2.8% in the last month. Yet you are prepared to call that prices are bottoming out while sales volumes are still very low. Inventories are still high.
Whats more, Interest rates across the curve are still almost 2% above their pre-covid levels, yet prices have not fallen enough to compensate for the increase in rates. I can understand if you want to propose a theory why prices may have bottomed, but its so far from certain, I find this whole article pretty hard to comprehend. To then take it a step further and tell first home buyers to jump into the market ... yikes.
J…s Bernard,
That is depressing! Same old, same old,
Neoliberal 20th century capitalism giving to the landowners and landlords while the slaves keep them there. Why cant anyone think beyond their pocketbook! Greedy little b…ers . They cannot look beyond their fossil fuel supercharged noses. Armageddon is almost at tipping point.
Patrick Medlicott
30/30 is a resonant, slogan-worthy wee phrase, but I’ve never heard it expressly from its proponents. So could the doubters – emboldened by your analysis, Bernard! – weaponise it in the interests of human decency by calling it into multi-disciplinary question and encouraging vigorous investigation of its foundations? Would be nice to have some policy debate focused on measurable stuff rather than infinitely debatable values.
Open this up to the public. Restricting this information to only those who can pay parallels the structures that support and maintain gross inequities in NZ society.
A US land tax proposal for you Bernard https://www.persuasion.community/p/the-forgotten-philosopher-who-can
Inspired if somewhat depressing Chorus, thank you BH. This should be required reading for all 18 year olds. In fact, required reading for everyone!
Excellent analysis as usual, Bernard. So depressing. I wouldn't buy my own house with today's prices, it's nuts!
I encourage my youngsters to buy as soon as they can, to vote as left as they can and to be informed. If at 16 they were able to understand the sovereign monetary concept so does anyone who is interested in educating themselves. Unfortunately most people are happy chappy in their ignorance. Most unfortunate that these people can vote and 16yo needs to fight for it.
I'd recommend we think hard who we vote for in 2023. Labour needs a kick of their collective back side towards the left so I'm considering Greens or MP. Still waiting to see what TOP will bring.
Great article!
Open this up please.
"Don’t wait for the ‘grown-ups’ to fix the supply shortages or change the tax rules to improve affordability." There are no grown-ups in Parliament when it comes to housing.
I read that article with fire and cause, the flow of concise words and cut throat sentences. No pussy-footing here.
Thank you for the mahi you do in bringing these conversations to the forefront. Ka pai Bernard.
Open this one up please Bernard
When a person buys a residential property for themself they have to pay tax on their income and then pay mortgage interest, rates and insurance with their after tax income. When a person buys (or already owns) a second (or more) residential property Luxon is going to let them deduct mortgage interest, rates and insurance from their income and then pay tax on their remaining income (if any) from their rental property(ies). In addition Luxon is going to let people who own two or more residential properties deduct all rental property (whether rented or speculative) losses from their other income. All this gives those people who are rich enough to buy a second (or more) residential property a colossal/enormous/huge/massive financial advantage over people who are buying a home for themself. This is not surprising because Luxon owns a multitude of residential properties.
Therefore, financially, Luxon is being a vicious thug against people who are currently buying their own home and all New Zealanders who are yet to purchase a residential property for themself. Luxon seems to be ignorant/oblivious/unaware that he has blatantly exposed/revealed his ignominious greed and fiendish/heinous brutality against all New Zealanders who are currently buying their own home or are renting the dwelling the live in.
(thuggery of National Party politicians being a current topic in the NZ media)
The Labour party had similar leadership issues to the National party during its 9 years in the wilderness. But it used that time to develop transitional strategies and policies for addressing issues relating to future work, social wellbeing, climate change and taxation equity. During its first term in office, the LP also took time out to evaluate and report on historical social issues, home building and transport alternatives even while facing off disasters like the CH-Ch massacre, the geothermal explosion and of course the worldwide disruptive pandemic. Despite its apparently negative polls, it appears the LP may actually be quite well placed early in 2023 to announce credible policies for the future, backed by a budget for implementation and supported by experienced MPs that should give it a good chance for winning a third term.
On the other hand, during its time in the wilderness, the few remaining supposedly “entitled” MPs in the National Party have simply been “holding the Govt to account” over its implementation record (albeit during an extraordinary pandemic), injecting the odd dog whistle about the Maori co-governance while flaunting the NPs dubious image of being “tough on crime”. With the usual tabloid media backing, the party seems to believe this will be enough to win back the support of middle class they once enjoyed under John Key. Otherwise there doesn’t seem to be any NP strategy to address the issues of the future – with no policies to address inflation, global trade (in a climate of increasing hostility), social unrest and a fairer taxation system to finance long term infrastructure deficiencies. Instead, the NP appears to be hoping to recruit a diverse group of 30 brand new MPs to strengthen the perception it has not run out of ideas. Presumably if the Party (with its ACT supporters) win the next election, many of these newbie MPS will be thrust into ministerial positions without any real guiding policies and experience to implement them.
That's a lot of assumptions upon assumptions. Pleased to see it's not financial advice.
Sorry Bernard, but I'm struggling to understand how you think you can call that prices are "bottoming out". Its certainly a plausible possibility, but its far far from certain.
You seem to be basing it on the assumption that prices will fall by the amount predicted by the RBNZ. But if you actually look at their predictions, they saw prices bottoming out in 2024. Assuming their 15% price fall prediction remains correct, but they got the timelines that wrong is pretty wild leap of logic
In addition, you point to a slight bounce in Wellington prices - but you ignore they fell at twice the average monthly falls the previous month, so any bounce is likely just noise. And at the same time Auckland prices fell 2.8% in the last month. Yet you are prepared to call that prices are bottoming out while sales volumes are still very low. Inventories are still high.
Whats more, Interest rates across the curve are still almost 2% above their pre-covid levels, yet prices have not fallen enough to compensate for the increase in rates. I can understand if you want to propose a theory why prices may have bottomed, but its so far from certain, I find this whole article pretty hard to comprehend. To then take it a step further and tell first home buyers to jump into the market ... yikes.