11 Comments

I am sure that kitten on the stuffed unicorn is Photoshopped.

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Good god. The irony of National being the ‘business vote’ is their policies around housing and infrastructure incentivise NZs low productivity ‘housing economy with bits tacked on’ (cheers, Bernard, for the definition).

This low productivity is what means people choose to become land lords over engineers and doctors. Ffs, National, you’re mind blowingly inept within your own narrative of being good at business.

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Jul 29, 2022·edited Jul 29, 2022

Exactly. Housing right now is a tax on every productive business in the country. It means to attract skilled workers they need to pay higher wages to counteract the high cost of living (largely due to housing).

I still think back to Paul Callaghan's talk in 2011 (https://youtu.be/OhCAyIllnXY), where he highlights to move to a knowledge economy we have create a country where "talented people want to live". We won't attract and keep the people who will invent new products, services and industries without it. Bigger countries have deeper capital markets and network effects. So NZ needs to be a great place to live and work.

Instead, we have doubled down on low productive, low wage industries and attempted to "boost" our GDP through housing speculation. This has slowly eroded the way our quality of life, infrastructure and services, and increased the cost of living to the point where we are ranked the second worst country in the world by ex-pats.

The costs of acquiescing to parasitic housing speculators and a banking industry that relies on lending to housing, instead of productive businesses, is costing us all dearly.

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So you think a 22 yr old with a BHealthScience turns down a place at Medical School to become a property investor? Can you find a single example? NZs biggest issue is self entitlement: those who feel it is the State’s role to buy them a house and pay a benefit. Then bring some more kids into the world. Bernard, why don’t you challenge the narrative and estimate how much the country could save if Maori used social services at a rate in line with Asians?

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Agreed.

I guess if national win, everything will continue to worsen as it is under Labour but at least we will be spared the disappointment of being tricked about change/transformation.

With luck it'll be the year of the minor parties!!

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The leader chose to invest his own personal surpluses in rental properties, despite being someone who was an expert at business, or more importantly, who managed a state-controlled business with a near-monopoly in its main market. That is consistent with the policy direction.

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a foul stench of GREED emanates from Christopher Luxon.

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please, no bad language

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please, no bad language

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Late comment. May need to expand your caveat and include watching the 6 month treasury rate in comparison to the 10 year treasury rate , the European energy crisis and China's continual lockdown and zero covid policy to your team transitory inflation just incase.

I fear the reserve banks and investors are fearful of a correction or depression hence they know they will be rescued by the governors. A reset on the mess currently made with inflated asset prices and the liquidity issue made due to the pandemic might be necessary but a really tough period of time not encountered before with the next generation after the GFC or dot com crash.

I would love to save money, but the interest deposit rates at 4% for 12 months are non existent for beneficial gains and inflation is running high at 7.3%, so why would I stop spending money if it's worth less holding in the banks.

The time we live in now is different to the last time we faced such prospects, as I would assume during the 1970s you could still save money, and earn some good interest returns on saving than spending to beat inflationary costs and pressures, and save up for that house at the same time as earning, and providing. Not having to worry about how to make the next rent payment, fuel in the vehicle, food on tables and save at the same time for your own household too.

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Evening all. A comment/question on inflation - in the US If you look at the Fed Funds futures curve, the expectation is that the funds rate gets to 3% in March of 2023, that’s it, and then it falls. That’s crazy. That means that inflation has got to come down from 9% to 3 or 4% in the next nine months. How’s that going to happen?

Looking at the Fed funds rate, it historically has to get ABOVE the rate of inflation in order to control it. The Fed’s interest rate now stands at 2.25% to 2.5%, while inflation sits at 9.1%. In 1981 US inflation peaked at 9.8%, to control it Paul Volcker was appointed Fed Chairman and he had to raise rates to 19.5% !!! The big difference to the 80s now is that unemployment was extremely high back then, up near 10% at times - I suspect current low unemployment will drive inflation higher as more people employed = more people spending.

Overall I think the Fed is going to need to raise rates significantly higher than the market currently predicts.

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