US GDP falls for second consecutive quarter; US wholesale interest rates fall; Xi says US 'playing with fire' with planned Pelosi visit to Taiwan; Korea on 'brink of war,' says Kim; Fun Things needed
Good god. The irony of National being the ‘business vote’ is their policies around housing and infrastructure incentivise NZs low productivity ‘housing economy with bits tacked on’ (cheers, Bernard, for the definition).
This low productivity is what means people choose to become land lords over engineers and doctors. Ffs, National, you’re mind blowingly inept within your own narrative of being good at business.
Late comment. May need to expand your caveat and include watching the 6 month treasury rate in comparison to the 10 year treasury rate , the European energy crisis and China's continual lockdown and zero covid policy to your team transitory inflation just incase.
I fear the reserve banks and investors are fearful of a correction or depression hence they know they will be rescued by the governors. A reset on the mess currently made with inflated asset prices and the liquidity issue made due to the pandemic might be necessary but a really tough period of time not encountered before with the next generation after the GFC or dot com crash.
I would love to save money, but the interest deposit rates at 4% for 12 months are non existent for beneficial gains and inflation is running high at 7.3%, so why would I stop spending money if it's worth less holding in the banks.
The time we live in now is different to the last time we faced such prospects, as I would assume during the 1970s you could still save money, and earn some good interest returns on saving than spending to beat inflationary costs and pressures, and save up for that house at the same time as earning, and providing. Not having to worry about how to make the next rent payment, fuel in the vehicle, food on tables and save at the same time for your own household too.
Evening all. A comment/question on inflation - in the US If you look at the Fed Funds futures curve, the expectation is that the funds rate gets to 3% in March of 2023, that’s it, and then it falls. That’s crazy. That means that inflation has got to come down from 9% to 3 or 4% in the next nine months. How’s that going to happen?
Looking at the Fed funds rate, it historically has to get ABOVE the rate of inflation in order to control it. The Fed’s interest rate now stands at 2.25% to 2.5%, while inflation sits at 9.1%. In 1981 US inflation peaked at 9.8%, to control it Paul Volcker was appointed Fed Chairman and he had to raise rates to 19.5% !!! The big difference to the 80s now is that unemployment was extremely high back then, up near 10% at times - I suspect current low unemployment will drive inflation higher as more people employed = more people spending.
Overall I think the Fed is going to need to raise rates significantly higher than the market currently predicts.
I am sure that kitten on the stuffed unicorn is Photoshopped.
Good god. The irony of National being the ‘business vote’ is their policies around housing and infrastructure incentivise NZs low productivity ‘housing economy with bits tacked on’ (cheers, Bernard, for the definition).
This low productivity is what means people choose to become land lords over engineers and doctors. Ffs, National, you’re mind blowingly inept within your own narrative of being good at business.
Late comment. May need to expand your caveat and include watching the 6 month treasury rate in comparison to the 10 year treasury rate , the European energy crisis and China's continual lockdown and zero covid policy to your team transitory inflation just incase.
I fear the reserve banks and investors are fearful of a correction or depression hence they know they will be rescued by the governors. A reset on the mess currently made with inflated asset prices and the liquidity issue made due to the pandemic might be necessary but a really tough period of time not encountered before with the next generation after the GFC or dot com crash.
I would love to save money, but the interest deposit rates at 4% for 12 months are non existent for beneficial gains and inflation is running high at 7.3%, so why would I stop spending money if it's worth less holding in the banks.
The time we live in now is different to the last time we faced such prospects, as I would assume during the 1970s you could still save money, and earn some good interest returns on saving than spending to beat inflationary costs and pressures, and save up for that house at the same time as earning, and providing. Not having to worry about how to make the next rent payment, fuel in the vehicle, food on tables and save at the same time for your own household too.
Evening all. A comment/question on inflation - in the US If you look at the Fed Funds futures curve, the expectation is that the funds rate gets to 3% in March of 2023, that’s it, and then it falls. That’s crazy. That means that inflation has got to come down from 9% to 3 or 4% in the next nine months. How’s that going to happen?
Looking at the Fed funds rate, it historically has to get ABOVE the rate of inflation in order to control it. The Fed’s interest rate now stands at 2.25% to 2.5%, while inflation sits at 9.1%. In 1981 US inflation peaked at 9.8%, to control it Paul Volcker was appointed Fed Chairman and he had to raise rates to 19.5% !!! The big difference to the 80s now is that unemployment was extremely high back then, up near 10% at times - I suspect current low unemployment will drive inflation higher as more people employed = more people spending.
Overall I think the Fed is going to need to raise rates significantly higher than the market currently predicts.