Cabinet sets new three-step plan for reopening Auckland despite continued Covid infections; PM effectively ditches elimination; Auckland stays at level 3 with tweaks; Rest of NZ stays at level 2
You're not the only one. PM and Bloomfield pushed back on the decision being a loosening. They say Auckland is still in level three, 'just with a few different features'.
im sure the south Island would be very happy to be L1 with Cook Straight closed. Bring vaccinated, covid tested tourists in from Tasmania, Taiwan and Singapore and reopen the hotels and ski fields. What a boost to the economy. Now thats a plan.
She said ECE can open in bubbles of 10. That's not normal - my 4yo has 25ish in his class and 50 across two classrooms with a shared outdoor. Their capacity would be greatly reduced if operating under this rule (we're in Wgtn so not an issue)
The PM said that each ECE centre will need to adapt its usual arrangements to keep children in a bubble of 10. Some may find they can't have more than one 10-child bubble, so yes capacity is bound to be affected.
Superannuitants losing their pensions while stuck offshore? Along with diplomatic efforts for those being legally risked by visa expiry etc by NZ for them also while unable to return due to MIQ
Totally agree that this should be easily solved. MSD says they are bound by legislation (probably true), but the "easy solution" is to amend the current "26 weeks" to "52 weeks". Problem solved. There's no real reason why super annuitants should be held to an arbitrary number of weeks to be "out of NZ".
FYI. I asked about likely hospitalisations, deaths and delays to other operations with this new 'tweaked' set of rules for Level 3 in Auckland. No specific answer. I also asked about accelerating use of mandates and vaccination certificates to increase vaccination faster. She said there would be more announced in the next couple of days. Didn't address the mandate issue.
Bernard, we need to be asking what proportion of cases in hospital are unvaccinated. Overseas this is typically well over 90% and is a powerful argument to get the vaccine. It also focusses attention on why are the vaccinated majority still locked up. A more rational approach would be to build temp hospital wards eg in sports halls to cater for the unvaccinated who get sick. Treat the actual minority problem, stop punishing the majority.
Interesting detail from Bloomfield when asked about timeframe for moving Auckland back to level 2. He said it would take 4 to 8 weeks for double vaccination rates to get over 90%. He said having a 'normal' summer holiday required that 4-8 weeks. That sounds like Auckland stays at level three until Christmas (albeit with the tweaks detailed above) and the rest of NZ stays at level two.
I found the decision around early school opening on the 18th Oct fascinating. While children largely don't become terribly unwell with COVID, schools have been one of the cornerstones of inter-household infection spread in UK.
There is no doubt that the 2nd/3rd order impacts of keeping kids out of school is significant for both the welfare of the kids, economic productivity and keeping households running but...
Managing test, trace & isolation in schools has been hugely complex and stressful for UK parents (we have a number on our staff). A lot of detail will need to be worked out before the 18th to make that re-opening a success. If they don't get it right, we're just going to see the yo-yo chaos of the UK with schools opening and closing constantly.
UK has ditched the vaccination passport today agree the childcare school environments will be dreadful. Lots of parents will continue not to send them again/still. Real problems increasing equity for women but childcare was never available all hours or school and public hols anyway so we’re no closer to a solution to the worsening shecession or child poverty.Glad Stuff did a once over lightly piece on Child Support today but it’s such an abused system which along with Family Courts needs transparency for adequate support and maintenance of Mothers and children (so they don’t need to be forced to have their Mothering reduced to being victimised by Human and Legal Rights abused or forced to be “beneficiaries” along with other things like a cover for all forms of DV it was a very once over lightly. Hopefully more to come on these low level abuses along with the 1percenters financial abuses today as these local crimes and non functioning of agencies non disclosure non enforcing effect us and our children all far more in our personal lives being deprived of our rights by the state then prosecuted on the real criminals behalf rather than what billion and trillionaires do.
I don’t see why the media is so focused on (comes across as almost obsessed with) any change to the elimination strategy. We’ve used it successfully for as long as it’s worked. It’s not working any more so we are moving on. There seems to be some sort of implication that there is a failure if we change, whereas the government is quite rightly evolving the strategy with changing circumstances. The true story would be if the government stuck with a strategy regardless, as circumstances change.
Because it's a big change to how New Zealanders are going to experience the pandemic. For the most part, most people have been able to pretty much ignore it apart from the lockdowns. As we open up we will see more cases and more deaths than the public here has had to deal with up till now. There are also likely to be ongoing changes to how we live our lives, such as masking in public, than we've had to deal with until now.
It may or may not be the right decision. It might have been the only decision, we'll never know. But it will still be a big change, and is obviously news as a result.
It a big change. However, it's also an inevitable one. Every person on the planet will eventually be exposed to covid, there is no avoiding it. Which country you live in simply determines if you get exposed in 2021, 22, 23 etc. And of course your access to a vaccine. It seems a lot of New Zealanders (not saying Colin specifically) are yet to understand this, based on suggestions that various restrictions for "a bit longer" might mean they can avoid it altogether.
Personally, I would have liked them to have held out until kids could be vaccinated. And it seems undeniable that they're not abandoning elimination on their terms. They're talking about 4-8 weeks to get to 90% vaccination, but I'm sceptical that we'll ever get there, much less in that timeframe. Other countries with much higher vaccination rates for other diseases haven't got anywhere near that. And if we can't get there, our chronically underfunded health system will really struggle to cope. My wife is Spanish and had COVID rip through her family, and I'm completely certain that no-one here is really conscious of how terrible it is when you can't rely on emergency services when you need them. I have some hope given how they've managed the response so far, but it could very easily get pretty ugly. I wouldn't want to be an ICU nurse right now.
Agree I don’t think there’s a hope of getting enough vaccinated at all or in time. So talk of soft borders or home self isolation it’s going to be a horror show for the many working in it and effected by it is worse than irresponsible. To have any semblance of normal it has to be kept out and mitigated by vaccines but kept out by MIQ.
I also can’t see why a 2 week stay at home Order for two weeks can’t nip it in the bud and catch all cases now. When it can get into neonatal wards effecting 30 to 35 babies and everyone else something isn’t working. Not acceptable under normal circumstances let alone Delta. Just not competent to deal with normal infection control. We just can’t assume this country’s systems work as they should.
Can you please clarify the 100 person restriction for hospitality in the South Island that has been removed.
Is it effective immediately and does it apply to sport? Asking as have kids sport this weekend and would be nice for more than one parent to be able to watch, especially given it will take place on a rugby field - fair bit of fresh air and space available there.
Bernard I noted that the PM refused to address the question put to her related to the flagrant breach of level 3 by Brian Tamaki, if this man has is not charged with a breach of the Health Act, this sets a precedent for anyone else.
Was there any talk about ICU capacity or modelling on how these changes are going to effect the hospitals... It still seems too early for me.
Not yet. Good question. Will have a crack.
Thanks!
You're not the only one. PM and Bloomfield pushed back on the decision being a loosening. They say Auckland is still in level three, 'just with a few different features'.
yeah like level three with picnics
Good question Cain, that's always cited as the primary barrier to a full re-opening.
What about the borders? Any changes in those settings through those steps?
No changes at either internal or external borders. Waikato's level 3 restrictions are the vanilla ones, not the Auckland-style tweaks.
Bernard I suspect AirNZ’s announcement of resumption in international flights from 1 Feb 2022, might be a hint as to timing of reopening the borders
The PM says she had learned in the last two hours there has been an escape from MIQ, but the person has been apprehended.
Complicated rules complicate compliance to the point where compliance fades. Hard to see practical reasons why the South Island remains at level two.
Agree John we have a border, we should be at level 1
Disagree. Seeding event plus level 1 equals potential superspreading.
Always a possibility but track record suggests not - there are no absolutes in this rodeo.
im sure the south Island would be very happy to be L1 with Cook Straight closed. Bring vaccinated, covid tested tourists in from Tasmania, Taiwan and Singapore and reopen the hotels and ski fields. What a boost to the economy. Now thats a plan.
That's a long road that has to start somewhere.....
How can they claim they’re still going to put every case into quarantine? Can We quarantine thousands and still keep offering miq spaces?
She said ECE can open in bubbles of 10. That's not normal - my 4yo has 25ish in his class and 50 across two classrooms with a shared outdoor. Their capacity would be greatly reduced if operating under this rule (we're in Wgtn so not an issue)
The PM said that each ECE centre will need to adapt its usual arrangements to keep children in a bubble of 10. Some may find they can't have more than one 10-child bubble, so yes capacity is bound to be affected.
Superannuitants losing their pensions while stuck offshore? Along with diplomatic efforts for those being legally risked by visa expiry etc by NZ for them also while unable to return due to MIQ
Totally agree that this should be easily solved. MSD says they are bound by legislation (probably true), but the "easy solution" is to amend the current "26 weeks" to "52 weeks". Problem solved. There's no real reason why super annuitants should be held to an arbitrary number of weeks to be "out of NZ".
Yes or add one clause saying in worldwide emergency any limits and enforcemement can be suspended in the public’s interest.
FYI. I asked about likely hospitalisations, deaths and delays to other operations with this new 'tweaked' set of rules for Level 3 in Auckland. No specific answer. I also asked about accelerating use of mandates and vaccination certificates to increase vaccination faster. She said there would be more announced in the next couple of days. Didn't address the mandate issue.
the models dont have that level of accuraccy. basically the tea leaves tend to clump so you lose resolution.
Bernard, we need to be asking what proportion of cases in hospital are unvaccinated. Overseas this is typically well over 90% and is a powerful argument to get the vaccine. It also focusses attention on why are the vaccinated majority still locked up. A more rational approach would be to build temp hospital wards eg in sports halls to cater for the unvaccinated who get sick. Treat the actual minority problem, stop punishing the majority.
Interesting detail from Bloomfield when asked about timeframe for moving Auckland back to level 2. He said it would take 4 to 8 weeks for double vaccination rates to get over 90%. He said having a 'normal' summer holiday required that 4-8 weeks. That sounds like Auckland stays at level three until Christmas (albeit with the tweaks detailed above) and the rest of NZ stays at level two.
That's quite the 'detail'.
Well maybe not right to Xmas (hopefully!) but that would take us to end of Oct.
Also, the PM gave a brief indication of further financial support for households, with details to come in the coming days.
I found the decision around early school opening on the 18th Oct fascinating. While children largely don't become terribly unwell with COVID, schools have been one of the cornerstones of inter-household infection spread in UK.
There is no doubt that the 2nd/3rd order impacts of keeping kids out of school is significant for both the welfare of the kids, economic productivity and keeping households running but...
Managing test, trace & isolation in schools has been hugely complex and stressful for UK parents (we have a number on our staff). A lot of detail will need to be worked out before the 18th to make that re-opening a success. If they don't get it right, we're just going to see the yo-yo chaos of the UK with schools opening and closing constantly.
UK has ditched the vaccination passport today agree the childcare school environments will be dreadful. Lots of parents will continue not to send them again/still. Real problems increasing equity for women but childcare was never available all hours or school and public hols anyway so we’re no closer to a solution to the worsening shecession or child poverty.Glad Stuff did a once over lightly piece on Child Support today but it’s such an abused system which along with Family Courts needs transparency for adequate support and maintenance of Mothers and children (so they don’t need to be forced to have their Mothering reduced to being victimised by Human and Legal Rights abused or forced to be “beneficiaries” along with other things like a cover for all forms of DV it was a very once over lightly. Hopefully more to come on these low level abuses along with the 1percenters financial abuses today as these local crimes and non functioning of agencies non disclosure non enforcing effect us and our children all far more in our personal lives being deprived of our rights by the state then prosecuted on the real criminals behalf rather than what billion and trillionaires do.
I don’t see why the media is so focused on (comes across as almost obsessed with) any change to the elimination strategy. We’ve used it successfully for as long as it’s worked. It’s not working any more so we are moving on. There seems to be some sort of implication that there is a failure if we change, whereas the government is quite rightly evolving the strategy with changing circumstances. The true story would be if the government stuck with a strategy regardless, as circumstances change.
Because it's a big change to how New Zealanders are going to experience the pandemic. For the most part, most people have been able to pretty much ignore it apart from the lockdowns. As we open up we will see more cases and more deaths than the public here has had to deal with up till now. There are also likely to be ongoing changes to how we live our lives, such as masking in public, than we've had to deal with until now.
It may or may not be the right decision. It might have been the only decision, we'll never know. But it will still be a big change, and is obviously news as a result.
Good point.
It a big change. However, it's also an inevitable one. Every person on the planet will eventually be exposed to covid, there is no avoiding it. Which country you live in simply determines if you get exposed in 2021, 22, 23 etc. And of course your access to a vaccine. It seems a lot of New Zealanders (not saying Colin specifically) are yet to understand this, based on suggestions that various restrictions for "a bit longer" might mean they can avoid it altogether.
Personally, I would have liked them to have held out until kids could be vaccinated. And it seems undeniable that they're not abandoning elimination on their terms. They're talking about 4-8 weeks to get to 90% vaccination, but I'm sceptical that we'll ever get there, much less in that timeframe. Other countries with much higher vaccination rates for other diseases haven't got anywhere near that. And if we can't get there, our chronically underfunded health system will really struggle to cope. My wife is Spanish and had COVID rip through her family, and I'm completely certain that no-one here is really conscious of how terrible it is when you can't rely on emergency services when you need them. I have some hope given how they've managed the response so far, but it could very easily get pretty ugly. I wouldn't want to be an ICU nurse right now.
Agree I don’t think there’s a hope of getting enough vaccinated at all or in time. So talk of soft borders or home self isolation it’s going to be a horror show for the many working in it and effected by it is worse than irresponsible. To have any semblance of normal it has to be kept out and mitigated by vaccines but kept out by MIQ.
I also can’t see why a 2 week stay at home Order for two weeks can’t nip it in the bud and catch all cases now. When it can get into neonatal wards effecting 30 to 35 babies and everyone else something isn’t working. Not acceptable under normal circumstances let alone Delta. Just not competent to deal with normal infection control. We just can’t assume this country’s systems work as they should.
I wonder if all early childhood education staff will be required to be fully vaccinated, and if not, why not? Ditto school staff when schools reopen.
Can you please clarify the 100 person restriction for hospitality in the South Island that has been removed.
Is it effective immediately and does it apply to sport? Asking as have kids sport this weekend and would be nice for more than one parent to be able to watch, especially given it will take place on a rugby field - fair bit of fresh air and space available there.
Bernard I noted that the PM refused to address the question put to her related to the flagrant breach of level 3 by Brian Tamaki, if this man has is not charged with a breach of the Health Act, this sets a precedent for anyone else.