Govt spending cuts needlessly worsening recession & hollowing out business, say economists, including former Chief Economist at Treasury, in a letter to PM; Kinleith paper mill shutting
Great letter there. This letter asks some of the most important questions in respect of how public and private debt dynamics actually work and underline exactly how bloody-minded austerity destroys economies.
A great letter from economists to PM, unfortunately it will probably not be read… Apart from a few corporate self improvement books I doubt that Mr Luxon digests information that can’t be compressed into 45 seconds on TicTok
Earlier this week when Luxon was questioned on what he was doing to improve Māori outcomes he said they were going to improve Maths outcomes. I could see in my minds eye a number of Nats face palming. I really despair at our larger companies if they are led by the likes of Christopher Luxon, I mean I know we have all had stupid bosses but I have never had one as inane as this guy. (And I have had some very smart ones)
Whew! I have been wondering lately about the stark disjunction between Nicola Willis' talk and her walk. She appeared to stake her reputation on the need for social investment but seems to be presiding over a worsening social disaster.
That ferry project. I don’t normally think too much about where my tax money goes - usually just into the abyss to do something for all… but knowing that this government blew $1b straight into the toilet for absolutely no reason… that one really stings. That’s $200 for each and every kiwi.
Great edition today Bernard! That economist's letter is amazing. Please allow this to go far and wide. I wonder if our opposition parties (who - apart from Te Pati Māori - appear to be largely missing in action) would care to respond to this letter. Is there even a shadow finance spokesperson?
We need opposition parties to step up with constant questioning of Luxon, Willis, and frankly anyone who has responsibility for either cuts or service degradation.
They should be asking for a response in light of this letter and questioned on their understanding of it, whether they agree with its contents, and if not then why not.
Similarly the media should be doing the same, but won’t hold my breath in either happening.
There can only be two reasons why this govt is trying to build an economy through austerity - either they are economic illiterates, or they are deliberately orchestrating a recession to justify selling state assets to friends. Or a combination of the two, or perhaps simple callous hostility to vulnerable losers / bottom feeders.
Yep. If the coalition Govt's jointly agreed goal is to prime Aotearoa NZ for for foreign sale and to punish the poor, their financial (and all other nonsense, cruel, non-evidenced and ignored-expert based) policies are a feature, not a bug.
Brilliant exposition as usual. We have a stupid finance minister with totally outdated concepts from 19th or at best 20th century talking Bullshit with no understanding of 21st century economics.
If I hear “Budget like a household” once more I may spontaneously combust but I will not give her the pleasure! Even her “mates” are calling “Bullshit” now.
I have spent the last day fuming as I reflected on Luxon's dismissal of the largest demonstration I can recall in Wellington as just "Te Pati Māori" led. Who cares who organized it? Good on them. They marched with the hopes and aspirations of all decent NZ'ers empowering them. The goodwill and humor and the mix of races present said it all in this wonderful peaceful event as they marched on behalf of us all.
If the Glenn McConnell analysis linked to above is anything to go by, Te Pati Māori will have the last laugh if they manage to gather up to 20 seats next time we go to an election.
I agree! I think about the [imperfect] progress over my own lifetime from say Dame Whina Cooper's land march, Bastion Point, the sesqui-centenary, the various landmark settlements, the unqualified success of Māori agency in Kōhanga and Kura Kaupapa, acknowledgement and acceptance of Te Reo in everyday life in Aotearoa-New Zealand. We as a nation were finally starting to come to terms with what the Treaty means, our history and the centrality of its promises in our national life. Then the temperature cooled as substantive change seemed imminent: the still-born attempts at providing agency in health and the attempt to provide a voice at the table with local body seats and co-governance arrangements. The holders of power: landowners and big budget holders and those in the extractive industries realised the population as a whole has moved.
And now this bill.
The really dangerous thing is that Seymour knows he won't get it passed. But that is not the point. The point is to deliberately and provocatively move the conversation - to get it talked about. To embolden those (and their dollars) who still harbour a monochrome and mono-cultural view of our country. It will fail but after six months of hearings, the damage will be done. Then, as deputy PM and going into an election, Seymour will use this as a battering ram of a wedge issue, building strength from it as the more basic, crude racism comes out into the open again. The ultimate prize of course is to cannibalise the more extreme parts of the National base. Some of the doyens of the National party can start to see this now. The big question I wonder about is whether Luxon is just a complete political naif, thought he could use Seymour but has instead been royally used, or is actually really a closet ACT type.
ACT's bill is in ultimate service of a libertarian ideology that sees us all as atomised consumers rather than citizens in a shared polity and society. ACT wants to replace our obligations to each other and our manifold rights as human beings in a complex society with the sole unfettered equal right to shop.
Not own important stuff you understand. Owning stuff, owning wealth, and owning the political decision making will be for those who are bankrolling them.
This is why I - as a mid-50's pakeha - found the hikoi to Parliament this week inspiring and such a beneficial example. Because it represents not just the power of collective action but the power of the very idea of a community that shares and defends values of more than the dollar value of a thing.
Yes, but we must keep on repeating: It' is all Luxon's fault. He never needed to have the Act fascists in his coalition, if he even needed to have a coalition. They were never going to go with Labour. It all showed his political naivety and stupidity. How long is the country going to have to suffer the fool.
I remain triggered. I’m sorry, no one on earth triggers me like the dynamic duo of Luxon the ‘BS’ artist and no boats, no ideas, Willis. You’re not alone Garry.
Luxon and Willis can only be aliens who got the jobs they inhabit because somebody's father knew somebody's father. They have a leering slow motion nightmare quality. My expectations of reality must have been too narrow.
Great to have here the full detail of the letter to Luxon and Willis. I gave Morning Report my "vote" for Ganesh to be Minister of Finance! This kind of good analysis needs wide dissemination. Please share this out too, Bernard.
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I managed to get it off your first post, but had to get the names off another screen. The text is stays black in dark mode!
So the ‘chickens are coming home to roost’ for Willis. It ceases to astound me how the COC’s can put on such faces of righteousness and think reality will never arrive. Going to also be interesting to watch the inevitable fall of Trump.
Thank you, Bernard, for the opening of this Dawn Chorus from the outset. While much attention will rightly be on the economists' letter, I was struck by another troubling issue: today’s scoop on the use of chemical restraint due to under-resourcing in dementia care.
Reading The Post's article and watching Dr David Allan’s Health Committee Inquiry submission yesterday was sobering., althoughnot surprising. Dr Allan emphasises that medication should be a last resort for those with challenging behaviour and psychological symptoms of dementia. Yet, due to inadequate resourcing, he and others are forced to use it as a first choice in some areas. This isn’t an isolated issue—it’s happening across New Zealand, and politicians and health officials have been repeatedly warned about this and other consequences of underfunding.
Despite this, officials continue to deflect, as seen in the closing paragraph of The Post article which paraphrases the Health NZ and Associate Minister Costello's response to other articles on not adequately funding and resourcing dementia support and services.
When will journalists highlight that the Dementia Mate Wareware Action Plan 2020–2025 includes 28 actions, yet only seven pilot programmes were funded through a modest $12 million allocation in Budget 2022? These pilots are a fraction of what’s needed, yet are touted by Ministers and Health NZ leaders as evidence of progress.
It would be great if this deflective framing and narrative is challenged as the BS it is!
Thanks Bernard and a big thank you to the economists. It is difficult for me to comprehend the deliberate economic and social vandalism the current coalition government is presiding over. Luxon and Willis are so jacked up on ideology they have become intensely myopic. That means they are incapable of seeing or learning. What possible reason could the leader of a country offer for such wanton destruction of the society he has been elected to nurture? In a commercial sense, Luxon is actively destroying Brand New Zealand. And he is destroying it at both ends of the marketing system. Luxon has failed. Willis has failed. The ‘COC’ has failed. I’m hopeful this will become obvious to New Zealanders and I’m equally ambitious they will address this systemic failure in 2026. Please, one term, one term only.
Great letter there. This letter asks some of the most important questions in respect of how public and private debt dynamics actually work and underline exactly how bloody-minded austerity destroys economies.
It’s so bleak - thank you for posting Bernard. This really is the dumbest, culture war driven government in my lifetime
Please can you share this publicly. It's so important the wider population hear this.
Yep. Went wide immediately. You’re welcome to share
A great letter from economists to PM, unfortunately it will probably not be read… Apart from a few corporate self improvement books I doubt that Mr Luxon digests information that can’t be compressed into 45 seconds on TicTok
Earlier this week when Luxon was questioned on what he was doing to improve Māori outcomes he said they were going to improve Maths outcomes. I could see in my minds eye a number of Nats face palming. I really despair at our larger companies if they are led by the likes of Christopher Luxon, I mean I know we have all had stupid bosses but I have never had one as inane as this guy. (And I have had some very smart ones)
Whew! I have been wondering lately about the stark disjunction between Nicola Willis' talk and her walk. She appeared to stake her reputation on the need for social investment but seems to be presiding over a worsening social disaster.
And let's not mention the ferries!
That ferry project. I don’t normally think too much about where my tax money goes - usually just into the abyss to do something for all… but knowing that this government blew $1b straight into the toilet for absolutely no reason… that one really stings. That’s $200 for each and every kiwi.
Great edition today Bernard! That economist's letter is amazing. Please allow this to go far and wide. I wonder if our opposition parties (who - apart from Te Pati Māori - appear to be largely missing in action) would care to respond to this letter. Is there even a shadow finance spokesperson?
We need opposition parties to step up with constant questioning of Luxon, Willis, and frankly anyone who has responsibility for either cuts or service degradation.
They should be asking for a response in light of this letter and questioned on their understanding of it, whether they agree with its contents, and if not then why not.
Similarly the media should be doing the same, but won’t hold my breath in either happening.
Consistent, incessant, persistent, ruthless, relentless, no holds barred, forensic, and deeply analytical questioning. Rinse and repeat.
Austerity will continue until morale improves
There can only be two reasons why this govt is trying to build an economy through austerity - either they are economic illiterates, or they are deliberately orchestrating a recession to justify selling state assets to friends. Or a combination of the two, or perhaps simple callous hostility to vulnerable losers / bottom feeders.
(No, I can't count either)
I’d go for both!
Yep. If the coalition Govt's jointly agreed goal is to prime Aotearoa NZ for for foreign sale and to punish the poor, their financial (and all other nonsense, cruel, non-evidenced and ignored-expert based) policies are a feature, not a bug.
Release please Bernard.
Brilliant exposition as usual. We have a stupid finance minister with totally outdated concepts from 19th or at best 20th century talking Bullshit with no understanding of 21st century economics.
If I hear “Budget like a household” once more I may spontaneously combust but I will not give her the pleasure! Even her “mates” are calling “Bullshit” now.
Patrick Medlicott
Yep. Open from the start
I have spent the last day fuming as I reflected on Luxon's dismissal of the largest demonstration I can recall in Wellington as just "Te Pati Māori" led. Who cares who organized it? Good on them. They marched with the hopes and aspirations of all decent NZ'ers empowering them. The goodwill and humor and the mix of races present said it all in this wonderful peaceful event as they marched on behalf of us all.
If the Glenn McConnell analysis linked to above is anything to go by, Te Pati Māori will have the last laugh if they manage to gather up to 20 seats next time we go to an election.
There is, of course, the danger that Te Paati Māori and Act will each get 20 seats in the next election, at the expense of the centrists.
I agree! I think about the [imperfect] progress over my own lifetime from say Dame Whina Cooper's land march, Bastion Point, the sesqui-centenary, the various landmark settlements, the unqualified success of Māori agency in Kōhanga and Kura Kaupapa, acknowledgement and acceptance of Te Reo in everyday life in Aotearoa-New Zealand. We as a nation were finally starting to come to terms with what the Treaty means, our history and the centrality of its promises in our national life. Then the temperature cooled as substantive change seemed imminent: the still-born attempts at providing agency in health and the attempt to provide a voice at the table with local body seats and co-governance arrangements. The holders of power: landowners and big budget holders and those in the extractive industries realised the population as a whole has moved.
And now this bill.
The really dangerous thing is that Seymour knows he won't get it passed. But that is not the point. The point is to deliberately and provocatively move the conversation - to get it talked about. To embolden those (and their dollars) who still harbour a monochrome and mono-cultural view of our country. It will fail but after six months of hearings, the damage will be done. Then, as deputy PM and going into an election, Seymour will use this as a battering ram of a wedge issue, building strength from it as the more basic, crude racism comes out into the open again. The ultimate prize of course is to cannibalise the more extreme parts of the National base. Some of the doyens of the National party can start to see this now. The big question I wonder about is whether Luxon is just a complete political naif, thought he could use Seymour but has instead been royally used, or is actually really a closet ACT type.
ACT's bill is in ultimate service of a libertarian ideology that sees us all as atomised consumers rather than citizens in a shared polity and society. ACT wants to replace our obligations to each other and our manifold rights as human beings in a complex society with the sole unfettered equal right to shop.
Not own important stuff you understand. Owning stuff, owning wealth, and owning the political decision making will be for those who are bankrolling them.
This is why I - as a mid-50's pakeha - found the hikoi to Parliament this week inspiring and such a beneficial example. Because it represents not just the power of collective action but the power of the very idea of a community that shares and defends values of more than the dollar value of a thing.
Agree with every word.
I think Luxon is a political pygmy. He just doesn't have what it takes to be a political leader.
Yes, but we must keep on repeating: It' is all Luxon's fault. He never needed to have the Act fascists in his coalition, if he even needed to have a coalition. They were never going to go with Labour. It all showed his political naivety and stupidity. How long is the country going to have to suffer the fool.
I remain triggered. I’m sorry, no one on earth triggers me like the dynamic duo of Luxon the ‘BS’ artist and no boats, no ideas, Willis. You’re not alone Garry.
Luxon and Willis can only be aliens who got the jobs they inhabit because somebody's father knew somebody's father. They have a leering slow motion nightmare quality. My expectations of reality must have been too narrow.
Great to have here the full detail of the letter to Luxon and Willis. I gave Morning Report my "vote" for Ganesh to be Minister of Finance! This kind of good analysis needs wide dissemination. Please share this out too, Bernard.
Good stuff, but I can’t see the letter on a browser of Substack app - just error messages.
The link to the word letter. Should work
Still the same - the full PDF opens to
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I managed to get it off your first post, but had to get the names off another screen. The text is stays black in dark mode!
So the ‘chickens are coming home to roost’ for Willis. It ceases to astound me how the COC’s can put on such faces of righteousness and think reality will never arrive. Going to also be interesting to watch the inevitable fall of Trump.
Lots of conjecture about the motivation behind the Treaty Principles Bill.
This is the best explanation of a few I’ve read, with great historical content about “The Principles”
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/30-09-2024/the-real-reason-behind-acts-push-to-redefine-the-treaty-principles
This illustrates clearly the link to the Atlas agenda which is intrinsic in ACT's philosophy.
Thank you, Bernard, for the opening of this Dawn Chorus from the outset. While much attention will rightly be on the economists' letter, I was struck by another troubling issue: today’s scoop on the use of chemical restraint due to under-resourcing in dementia care.
Reading The Post's article and watching Dr David Allan’s Health Committee Inquiry submission yesterday was sobering., althoughnot surprising. Dr Allan emphasises that medication should be a last resort for those with challenging behaviour and psychological symptoms of dementia. Yet, due to inadequate resourcing, he and others are forced to use it as a first choice in some areas. This isn’t an isolated issue—it’s happening across New Zealand, and politicians and health officials have been repeatedly warned about this and other consequences of underfunding.
Despite this, officials continue to deflect, as seen in the closing paragraph of The Post article which paraphrases the Health NZ and Associate Minister Costello's response to other articles on not adequately funding and resourcing dementia support and services.
When will journalists highlight that the Dementia Mate Wareware Action Plan 2020–2025 includes 28 actions, yet only seven pilot programmes were funded through a modest $12 million allocation in Budget 2022? These pilots are a fraction of what’s needed, yet are touted by Ministers and Health NZ leaders as evidence of progress.
It would be great if this deflective framing and narrative is challenged as the BS it is!
Thanks Paul. Very useful pointers.
Thanks Bernard and a big thank you to the economists. It is difficult for me to comprehend the deliberate economic and social vandalism the current coalition government is presiding over. Luxon and Willis are so jacked up on ideology they have become intensely myopic. That means they are incapable of seeing or learning. What possible reason could the leader of a country offer for such wanton destruction of the society he has been elected to nurture? In a commercial sense, Luxon is actively destroying Brand New Zealand. And he is destroying it at both ends of the marketing system. Luxon has failed. Willis has failed. The ‘COC’ has failed. I’m hopeful this will become obvious to New Zealanders and I’m equally ambitious they will address this systemic failure in 2026. Please, one term, one term only.
One term. Dave Latele's catchcry during the hikoi.