Listen now | ACT's David Seymour calls time on the elimination strategy; Malaghan vaccine Prof challenges elimination; PM again won't state vaccine threshold to end elimination, but hopes summer festivals can proceed.
I read the supplementary tables in the modelling paper on reopening. What I would call the average case scenarios were incredibly grim. Hospitals overwhelmed multiple times over.
Even with keeping borders shut I don't see how extended periods of domestic restrictions are avoidable given Delta's propensity to escape MIQ.
I like the French solution if Minister of Health causes death or fails to adequately protect the population they’re hauled in front of the Court of Justice for negligence causing deaths. Bravo. The answers aren’t complex it’s simple infection control at borders and vaccinate. Very traditional approaches. Our hospitals need improving anyway and the staff looked after as well. Hoping they move on to other work and reform needing doing soon.This is not a winning election strategy or legacy given they caved to pressure to let it in causing these outbreaks so this over complicating and over analysing is irritating.
No one is asking how the government deem the vaccine effective when global reports show it is clearly not. Just look at Israel who are on their 5th booster shot.
Marvellous to note though as power and net we’re lost last night due to lightning strikes (it’s usually car crashes) the old tech phone still worked, the pyroclastic wood burner kept the place warm and heated water and food. Simplifying and old tech seems to work just fine and for little cost! Given these events are becoming more commonplace in rural NZ due to climate change (and these events happening around the country currently) it’s a nice reminder we don’t actually need to reinvent the wheel or rely on tech to be safe and comfortable if we build right, in the right places and prepare. Food security seems to be ok except as usual for the “too poor”. We need a Government that ensures everyone has access to what they need to be safe.
I’d like to see NZ Post postal codes used to refine areas of interest and lockdown. Every address has a postal code which can be found online via the NZ Post website. Their use would remove the need to know just where the Auckland boundaries begin and end. It would also allow the use of mesh blocks to track mobile vaccination clinic coverage.
I would love more questions asked and answers given about what we need to do now to make our health system fit for purpose. Even with high vaccination rates, there will still be people who get sick. Lockdowns have bought time, but we've not done nearly enough with it. Is anyone asking about the amount of money needing to be thrown at wage subsidies now and whether we'd (have been) better off investing in hospitals and paying healthcare workers enough money that they don't want to head to Australia or elsewhere for decent salaries? I genuinely think the only real way back to any sort of normal is getting our hospitals better able to cope (and getting and keeping vaccination rates high).
The government has slowly and steadily been moving away from the Group vaccination approach. The current covid outbreak has helped the numbers grow by giving people an obvious reason to get vaccinated. However, even allowing for the fact that specific groups may not be being recorded when people go for a vaccination (especially at drive-throughs etc), I'd like to understand if the government has any idea at all of how many of Group 3 have been vaccinated, given that they are more vulnerable than Group 4. It may be that we now have a large group of relatively safe people vaccinated, along with a high proportion of vulnerable people that aren't, and my guess is they have no idea whether they do nor not. Also, given that Ardern said yesterday that the "strategy is to vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate", it would be good to know if she now believes / admits their relaxed approach to vaccination at the end of last year and beginning of this was the wrong one?
You should talk to some of the NZ Citizens ( a lot of whom are pensioners) stuck in Australia with very little means of support waiting to come home from covid free areas, with double dose vaccinations.
The govt is cancelling their pensions and requires them to pay back pensions paid while stuck in Australia.
Hi Bernard. I love your comments but youre missing a critical point. By asking what vaccination level we need to reopen you imply that hospital capacity is fixed. Its not. What we should be asking is how much pandemic surge capacity do we need to reopen now. Dont clog up our hospitals. Unused sports arenas should be reconfigured as covid wards with ICU at one end. If we need more nurses fly them in with the promise of citizenship after 2 years. This should not be difficult and it would get us moving again. After covid 19 put the equipment into storage for Covid 22 and so on.
You've got to break eggs to make omelette. Summer festivals, seriously? Government needs to start breaking eggs and being honest about the situation the health sector and the country is in!
Here in the trenches on the frontline it's becoming increasingly apparent that people are bucking the lockdown regime. Testing numbers are nowhere near high enough to assure that the figures we're getting are giving us an accurate depiction of the real extent of community spread - we're seeing evidence of it in random people presenting at ERs and testing positive.
There is no perfect world where 100% of symptomatic people get tested. If I might venture a guess as to why that might be, I'd strongly suggest that's because of the practice of throwing COVID+ people into MIQ, or 'COVID jail', as people are calling it. IMHO this practice needs to end immediately if they want to get testing numbers and contact tracing to where it needs to be to have a chance of ending this - it's critical, people on the margins aren't going to comply if the result is punitive. And it is punitive - people already on the bottom rungs of a vastly, outrageously inequitable society feel hard done by. How dare the people that put them there, and do nothing to help them scold them for that suspicion and 'antisocial' paranoia...
There is no amount of whining and pleading from the ivory towers and swanky $2million+ average house price suburbs that will change that reality on the street. Our bourgie elite needs to wake-up to that reality and meet them halfway, or just give it up - those are the stakes we're dealing with here.
Compulsory quarantine in lousy MIQs has to go, last week, if they want to get the common folk on their side - they're not out there storming the Bastille, but they've gone deaf to the Usual Suspects tut-tutting them with the usual condescension. I'm here, in my community, doing the 'hard yards' (no I don't want any thanks! Please shut up!!), and this is what I hear and see...
Thanks Bernard for putting that question to them, definitely is the correct way to approach this particular discussion / problem. Much more productive than the right winger hand wringing.
I think it'd be interesting to see some exploration of what next year might realistically look like. Some key issues I can think of are:
* Will the modelling show things are too risky to follow the 'A' plan outlined by Skegg et al? (i.e. your thesis from last week)
* If so, will the government choose to delay 'material' changes (i.e. beyond trials and exemptions for some vaccinated business/sports visitors) until it can vaccinate under 12s and give boosters to the more at-risk population? Until end of next year for example.
* What would restrictions look like in a mostly open-border scenario to keep the R value down to a 'manageable' level? Quite likely this will be mean rolling restrictions, occasional regional lockdowns like we have now albeit hopefully briefer, mandatory masking, limits to hospitality, large events, venue capacity, and the like. And very limited international visitors in the next 12-24 months.
* What would the impact look like on the health system? What should people reasonably expect in terms of access to health care, surgery, etc.
* What business support would the government be rolling out if we don't have L4 lockdowns but theoretically L2.5s instead? This could potentially be much tougher for businesses if the support isn't there. And do we believe it will be? I am skeptical.
A lot of this is pretty foreseeable already given what we know and there are plenty of experts who would give some good insights.
IMO the sooner we can all get to grips with what we're likely to face in the most likely scenario assuming the government charges ahead, the better. A lot of people and businesses are still living in a fantasy land where things will be more or less 'COVID-normal' next year but with increased international travel.
The most worrying aspect for me is the government's apparent commitment to go ahead with this despite lagging vaccination rates in Maori and Pacifica. If this is not sorted before borders are relaxed it could be a calamity.
I read the supplementary tables in the modelling paper on reopening. What I would call the average case scenarios were incredibly grim. Hospitals overwhelmed multiple times over.
Even with keeping borders shut I don't see how extended periods of domestic restrictions are avoidable given Delta's propensity to escape MIQ.
I like the French solution if Minister of Health causes death or fails to adequately protect the population they’re hauled in front of the Court of Justice for negligence causing deaths. Bravo. The answers aren’t complex it’s simple infection control at borders and vaccinate. Very traditional approaches. Our hospitals need improving anyway and the staff looked after as well. Hoping they move on to other work and reform needing doing soon.This is not a winning election strategy or legacy given they caved to pressure to let it in causing these outbreaks so this over complicating and over analysing is irritating.
No one is asking how the government deem the vaccine effective when global reports show it is clearly not. Just look at Israel who are on their 5th booster shot.
Marvellous to note though as power and net we’re lost last night due to lightning strikes (it’s usually car crashes) the old tech phone still worked, the pyroclastic wood burner kept the place warm and heated water and food. Simplifying and old tech seems to work just fine and for little cost! Given these events are becoming more commonplace in rural NZ due to climate change (and these events happening around the country currently) it’s a nice reminder we don’t actually need to reinvent the wheel or rely on tech to be safe and comfortable if we build right, in the right places and prepare. Food security seems to be ok except as usual for the “too poor”. We need a Government that ensures everyone has access to what they need to be safe.
I’d like to see NZ Post postal codes used to refine areas of interest and lockdown. Every address has a postal code which can be found online via the NZ Post website. Their use would remove the need to know just where the Auckland boundaries begin and end. It would also allow the use of mesh blocks to track mobile vaccination clinic coverage.
I would love more questions asked and answers given about what we need to do now to make our health system fit for purpose. Even with high vaccination rates, there will still be people who get sick. Lockdowns have bought time, but we've not done nearly enough with it. Is anyone asking about the amount of money needing to be thrown at wage subsidies now and whether we'd (have been) better off investing in hospitals and paying healthcare workers enough money that they don't want to head to Australia or elsewhere for decent salaries? I genuinely think the only real way back to any sort of normal is getting our hospitals better able to cope (and getting and keeping vaccination rates high).
The government has slowly and steadily been moving away from the Group vaccination approach. The current covid outbreak has helped the numbers grow by giving people an obvious reason to get vaccinated. However, even allowing for the fact that specific groups may not be being recorded when people go for a vaccination (especially at drive-throughs etc), I'd like to understand if the government has any idea at all of how many of Group 3 have been vaccinated, given that they are more vulnerable than Group 4. It may be that we now have a large group of relatively safe people vaccinated, along with a high proportion of vulnerable people that aren't, and my guess is they have no idea whether they do nor not. Also, given that Ardern said yesterday that the "strategy is to vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate", it would be good to know if she now believes / admits their relaxed approach to vaccination at the end of last year and beginning of this was the wrong one?
You should talk to some of the NZ Citizens ( a lot of whom are pensioners) stuck in Australia with very little means of support waiting to come home from covid free areas, with double dose vaccinations.
The govt is cancelling their pensions and requires them to pay back pensions paid while stuck in Australia.
Hi Bernard. I love your comments but youre missing a critical point. By asking what vaccination level we need to reopen you imply that hospital capacity is fixed. Its not. What we should be asking is how much pandemic surge capacity do we need to reopen now. Dont clog up our hospitals. Unused sports arenas should be reconfigured as covid wards with ICU at one end. If we need more nurses fly them in with the promise of citizenship after 2 years. This should not be difficult and it would get us moving again. After covid 19 put the equipment into storage for Covid 22 and so on.
You've got to break eggs to make omelette. Summer festivals, seriously? Government needs to start breaking eggs and being honest about the situation the health sector and the country is in!
Here in the trenches on the frontline it's becoming increasingly apparent that people are bucking the lockdown regime. Testing numbers are nowhere near high enough to assure that the figures we're getting are giving us an accurate depiction of the real extent of community spread - we're seeing evidence of it in random people presenting at ERs and testing positive.
There is no perfect world where 100% of symptomatic people get tested. If I might venture a guess as to why that might be, I'd strongly suggest that's because of the practice of throwing COVID+ people into MIQ, or 'COVID jail', as people are calling it. IMHO this practice needs to end immediately if they want to get testing numbers and contact tracing to where it needs to be to have a chance of ending this - it's critical, people on the margins aren't going to comply if the result is punitive. And it is punitive - people already on the bottom rungs of a vastly, outrageously inequitable society feel hard done by. How dare the people that put them there, and do nothing to help them scold them for that suspicion and 'antisocial' paranoia...
There is no amount of whining and pleading from the ivory towers and swanky $2million+ average house price suburbs that will change that reality on the street. Our bourgie elite needs to wake-up to that reality and meet them halfway, or just give it up - those are the stakes we're dealing with here.
Compulsory quarantine in lousy MIQs has to go, last week, if they want to get the common folk on their side - they're not out there storming the Bastille, but they've gone deaf to the Usual Suspects tut-tutting them with the usual condescension. I'm here, in my community, doing the 'hard yards' (no I don't want any thanks! Please shut up!!), and this is what I hear and see...
Thanks Bernard for putting that question to them, definitely is the correct way to approach this particular discussion / problem. Much more productive than the right winger hand wringing.
I would like to know why the govt isn't following their own alert level risk assessment which was updated last week. From this, Auckland should be at 4 and the rest at 1 https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/tables/COVID-19-Alert-Levels-summary-table.pdf
What happened to the UN Delta-stricken woman in Middlemore Hospital Helen Clark arrange to be flown in? Thanks
I think it'd be interesting to see some exploration of what next year might realistically look like. Some key issues I can think of are:
* Will the modelling show things are too risky to follow the 'A' plan outlined by Skegg et al? (i.e. your thesis from last week)
* If so, will the government choose to delay 'material' changes (i.e. beyond trials and exemptions for some vaccinated business/sports visitors) until it can vaccinate under 12s and give boosters to the more at-risk population? Until end of next year for example.
* What would restrictions look like in a mostly open-border scenario to keep the R value down to a 'manageable' level? Quite likely this will be mean rolling restrictions, occasional regional lockdowns like we have now albeit hopefully briefer, mandatory masking, limits to hospitality, large events, venue capacity, and the like. And very limited international visitors in the next 12-24 months.
* What would the impact look like on the health system? What should people reasonably expect in terms of access to health care, surgery, etc.
* What business support would the government be rolling out if we don't have L4 lockdowns but theoretically L2.5s instead? This could potentially be much tougher for businesses if the support isn't there. And do we believe it will be? I am skeptical.
A lot of this is pretty foreseeable already given what we know and there are plenty of experts who would give some good insights.
IMO the sooner we can all get to grips with what we're likely to face in the most likely scenario assuming the government charges ahead, the better. A lot of people and businesses are still living in a fantasy land where things will be more or less 'COVID-normal' next year but with increased international travel.
The most worrying aspect for me is the government's apparent commitment to go ahead with this despite lagging vaccination rates in Maori and Pacifica. If this is not sorted before borders are relaxed it could be a calamity.