Dawn Chorus: A looming political choice on LVRs and DTIs

TLDR: Any relaxation of Loan to Value Ratio (LVRs) restrictions next year in conjuction with the introduction of Debt to Income (DTIs) would further heighten tensions between an Adrian Orr-led Reserve Bank and any new National Government.

That’s because DTI limits hit landlords harder than first home buyers and would potentially offset any of the benefits of house price appreciation from National’s removal of interest deductibility and the reversal of the extension of the bright line capital gains tax for landlords.

In some ways, any Reserve Bank push to formally introduce DTIs could be a deliberate attempt to quash any housing market surge after a change of Government.

The Reserve Bank’s DTI tool could be used to deter landlords from entering the market or from extending their portfolios, adding to the tension between the RBNZ governor and National’s Nicola Willis – who could well be Finance Minister before too long. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The Kākā

I talked about the potential softening of LVRs and any DTI introduction in 2024 in an interview with Core Logic’s Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson, which I’ve included above in full for both free and fully paid subscribers, although I’ve included my commentary and more detail in a longer version of the podcast above for full subscribers and below the paywall fold.

Elsewhere in the news

• Construction cost inflation here in Aotearoa eased again in December (see more below the fold);

• Watch out later today for local retail sales data and the NZIER’s QSBO results for the December quarter; and,

• Exporters and CO2 wholesalers are looking to build a second CO2 plant after the unscheduled shutdown of the Kapuni plant has quintupled prices and is restricting fresh food exports.

DTIs loom as flash point next year for any National Govt