Bank economists say slower economy means Govt will have to borrow $10b to $15b more than forecast under Labour to pay for $14.9b of tax cuts; Willis fudges on spending allowance
This government are hell bent on destroying the confidence and morale of our most valuable asset. The work force. Productivity will suffer and our country will be the loser. They act like colonisers of their own land. Resentment will replace hope for the majority!
If I didn't have this community and people like Bernard and Dave Latele around I might lose hope myself. But there is hope and I remind myself to not 'look away' and keep engaged, where possible engage others. Don't lose hope!
Yes I do agree Ben but I am remembering the many whose confidence was already fragile and often don’t have enough in the tank to encourage optimism. Our encouragement is therefore valuable
A nice, typically noisy, try by Wayne Brown to get the central government to (a) pay local-body rates like the rest of us, and (b) rebate the GST on rates - that tax on a tax.
Of course the Government won't pay rates: as far as I know no government ever has, and this one is scrambling to find money to fund its tax-cut bribe. But though it won't, it ought to pay rates, and so ought churches and charities and any other institution that manages to avoid them. Only publicly accessible non-revenue-producing parks and reserves should be exempt (not you, golf clubs!).
As for the GST on rates: this is a central-government land tax by stealth, and it makes sense for it to continue till it is replaced by a true annual land tax. Such a land tax would be likely to be fairer to the residents of non-metropolitan localities who now pay high rates on land typically of less value than that in the big cities.
What sickens me most about this government and to an extent the last one, is that poverty has been baked into our society for ever and it's getting worse. Yet it could be solved within a short period of time by altering the tax system, taxing unearned wealth and taxing duopolies and multi-nationals effectively. That would not hurt the people who own, invest and regulate. But it would allow for sensible investment in affordable housing & social rentals, better education, health services and wages.
Yet no politician would advocate for these policies without the fear of a reduced vote, or so they think.
I listen to relatives who call themselves 'libertarians'. The last thing they would support is for a redistribution of money for effective social services. They voted for this government and applaud the cynical, cruel attitude of the ministers, whilst being well-off, multi-property owning and entitled.
I fervently hope our younger generations will become motivated to change the awful legacy of inequality we are leaving them.
Just watched that David Letele interview. Thanks for the link.This is a reminder to us all that we have to start rebuilding at community level We have a government which does not care about the strugglers of our society. If the government doesn't care then we have to show them how.
It's too bad for working people that this Government isn't particularly interested in overseeing a productive economy (or if they are they are woefully ignorant of how modern economies work and how reliant they are on Government spending).
This is the venture-capitalist's Conservatism now. Take over an entity, borrow to pay yourself today, sell off the assets, fire the employees, then dump it on someone else within 10 years. It's only a little sad when it happens to a private company like Toys r Us, devasting to see it take hold of Government.
I don't want tax cuts either... But I, like all the other (increasingly rightwing-heavy) opinionated economists and blowhards, don't *need* the tax cuts.
Many of these people will already be thousands better off (via their rental property portfolios); they are not subject to the increasing public transport costs; they live near 'challenger' pharmacies who continue to offer free prescriptions; they drive FBT-exempt Ford Rangers; don't smoke; partake of private healthcare and schooling... They have the financial freedom to oppose the tax cuts. There are however desperate people who, without this tax cut, are going to be in real trouble because of the culling of public services. For some people, these tax cuts are all they have to look forward to, and possibly a literal lifeline.
Still, there are 350,000 US$-millionaires in NZ (according to Wikipedia); an increase in their average tax of just NZ$12,000/year would deliver around $15b over the next 4 years. Coincidentally, that's pretty near the exact tax rebate a rental property owner with an average mortgage and average interest rate will receive this year...
The estimate tax cut for my CSC-holding family of 5 - based on Nationals's pre-election calculator - was $15-20 per week. For some this will make a huge difference, however I'm happy to take bets on whether the final amount will be so "high" at all. Also, for us it is a joke because the new funding rules we receive for our 2 autistic children (who also happen to be why neither parent can work full-time) will either mean we need to find $100+/week to cover activities that benefit them greatly, but no longer fit the criteria. Or, we cut those activities altogether and deal with the fall-out.
Thank you, and I am grateful for the free student subscription for the Kākā - it's a fantastic resource. Even being a student is something to be grateful for: Lincoln uni kept some postgrad courses fees-free post-Covid, which means I (and many others) are able to slowly "upgrade" while working, then increase our earning potential and benefit to society in future.
NZ voted in National and the other two, in the context that these 'tax cuts' would happen, so they have in theory a mandate for them but, and it is a large one, no pun intended, it was based on smoke and mirrors, the foreign buyers tax etc, and they certainly did not have a mandate to destroy the economy. National Party take the reins, you will not succeed with fulfilling Nicola's promises. Replace the L Truss(es). They are as we know also mining vapers for money, and clearly breach the UN charter in this. A latest finding should be broadcast, but was not unpredictable. Remember life insurance increases are the same for vapers and tobacco smokers, WHO et al warnings etc. University College London :
Did National, Act and NZ First get voted in or did Labour get voted out because of their total lack of leadership? We have parties which got 6 - 8% of the vote telling us all how to think right now.
My personal objection to Labour was that they were centralizing everything. A country and government which pays attention to its provinces will flourish. Hopefully the Labour Party (of which I was a member for 43 years) will start talking to those of us who believe in "local". I often despaired as I listened to MP's defending only central solutions. An example was we had a brilliant CDHB and its leadership got shafted by Labour MP's who before the election were their greatest supporters. It might be a good time for the left to consider what sort of candidates are selected for parliament?
Labour lost courage to act in the last term. They were so afraid of losing, they lost. Like your are taught in defensive driving - if you look at the tree, you will hit the tree.
The NZ economy has failed because investors get a better return by buying an old house and renting it to poor people than they get by investing in a job-creating enterprise.
The former is subsidised by over 2 billion a year (Accommodation supplement) and gives tax free capital gains. Unless these levers are changed the economy is beyond repair.
None of the economists quoted above have the courage to address this fatal flaw.
The foodbank situation is appalling. An industry on which low income people are increasingly dependent is in imminent danger of collapse . We need total outrage at the hunger and misery that is all around us if only we open our eyes. I suspect even the wrongheaded Working for Families policy that is supposed to see an increase in the iniquitous IWTC from 1 July may be a causality of budget cuts. The fixed threshold for abatement of WFF at a crazy rate of 27% has been $42,700 total family income since 2018- creating an enormous squeeze on low income working families. There is zero relief in sight.
No one has questioned the continuing funding of the NZSF-- essentially borrowing to create investment in overseas equities-- and what for? Is it to create the illusion that NZ Super in its present form is sustainable forever?
The budget policy statement makes a virtue out of reaching a surplus, reducing the level of public debt as a percentage of GDP, and reducing the size of the public sector. All while reducing income tax rates and reckoning no loss of public services.
No recognition or consideration of the fact that a public surplus is paid for by reductions in private sector savings.
No standing back and noting that other countries that the three headed taniwha aspires to becoming have much higher public debt to GDP ratios. No thought as to whether this means we could comfortably have a higher public debt to GDP ratio.
And the ideological drive to reduce the level and cost of public services, apparently based on some myth that the level and quality of public services were perfect in 2017, so we should reduce the public sector back to that level.
The budget policy statement is just deluded reckons by a three headed taniwha that is well out of its depth.
It beggars belief that a lot of this extra borrowing could have been avoided if they had not sold out to Act in the coalition agreement on the reversal of interest on mortgage deductibility. Prebble has got some nerve spouting about not introducing tax cuts for middle/low income while also backing his Act mates on tax relief for landlords
Exactly - Melissa Lee has just been wrapped on the knuckles for policy within her own Broadcasting portfolio because she didn't get Winston 6%ters to approve it first... National are really happily pandering to the minority crackpots in order to provide themselves with an excuse to embrace their inner-gremlin!
Which media outlet is going to get the lettuce live-stream out first? Nicola either has to resign and not deliver tax cuts, or deliver tax cuts against the advice of literally everyone. She’s going to Truss it all up.
Meanwhile the inter island connection is phased out for the sake of a relatively paltry sum in comparison. Irresponsible! Wasteful!
Question is why is the Cook Strait link not a road of significance.
It is a shameful situation, food banks supporting tax cuts for millionaires
This government are hell bent on destroying the confidence and morale of our most valuable asset. The work force. Productivity will suffer and our country will be the loser. They act like colonisers of their own land. Resentment will replace hope for the majority!
If I didn't have this community and people like Bernard and Dave Latele around I might lose hope myself. But there is hope and I remind myself to not 'look away' and keep engaged, where possible engage others. Don't lose hope!
Yes I do agree Ben but I am remembering the many whose confidence was already fragile and often don’t have enough in the tank to encourage optimism. Our encouragement is therefore valuable
Thank you for clarifying. As much a reminder for myself sometimes. Agreed!
Crucial listening @Bernard... borrowing to pay for tax cuts... ridiculous
You got my vote to open it...
A nice, typically noisy, try by Wayne Brown to get the central government to (a) pay local-body rates like the rest of us, and (b) rebate the GST on rates - that tax on a tax.
Of course the Government won't pay rates: as far as I know no government ever has, and this one is scrambling to find money to fund its tax-cut bribe. But though it won't, it ought to pay rates, and so ought churches and charities and any other institution that manages to avoid them. Only publicly accessible non-revenue-producing parks and reserves should be exempt (not you, golf clubs!).
As for the GST on rates: this is a central-government land tax by stealth, and it makes sense for it to continue till it is replaced by a true annual land tax. Such a land tax would be likely to be fairer to the residents of non-metropolitan localities who now pay high rates on land typically of less value than that in the big cities.
After reading these posts, I searched for David Letele and found this YouTube post from 1 year ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTe9HKu334s
What sickens me most about this government and to an extent the last one, is that poverty has been baked into our society for ever and it's getting worse. Yet it could be solved within a short period of time by altering the tax system, taxing unearned wealth and taxing duopolies and multi-nationals effectively. That would not hurt the people who own, invest and regulate. But it would allow for sensible investment in affordable housing & social rentals, better education, health services and wages.
Yet no politician would advocate for these policies without the fear of a reduced vote, or so they think.
I listen to relatives who call themselves 'libertarians'. The last thing they would support is for a redistribution of money for effective social services. They voted for this government and applaud the cynical, cruel attitude of the ministers, whilst being well-off, multi-property owning and entitled.
I fervently hope our younger generations will become motivated to change the awful legacy of inequality we are leaving them.
Just watched that David Letele interview. Thanks for the link.This is a reminder to us all that we have to start rebuilding at community level We have a government which does not care about the strugglers of our society. If the government doesn't care then we have to show them how.
Paid parking is critical demand management and it is cooked that we don't charge for parking in more locations.
It's too bad for working people that this Government isn't particularly interested in overseeing a productive economy (or if they are they are woefully ignorant of how modern economies work and how reliant they are on Government spending).
This is the venture-capitalist's Conservatism now. Take over an entity, borrow to pay yourself today, sell off the assets, fire the employees, then dump it on someone else within 10 years. It's only a little sad when it happens to a private company like Toys r Us, devasting to see it take hold of Government.
Private equity not venture capital does that
I don't want tax cuts either... But I, like all the other (increasingly rightwing-heavy) opinionated economists and blowhards, don't *need* the tax cuts.
Many of these people will already be thousands better off (via their rental property portfolios); they are not subject to the increasing public transport costs; they live near 'challenger' pharmacies who continue to offer free prescriptions; they drive FBT-exempt Ford Rangers; don't smoke; partake of private healthcare and schooling... They have the financial freedom to oppose the tax cuts. There are however desperate people who, without this tax cut, are going to be in real trouble because of the culling of public services. For some people, these tax cuts are all they have to look forward to, and possibly a literal lifeline.
Still, there are 350,000 US$-millionaires in NZ (according to Wikipedia); an increase in their average tax of just NZ$12,000/year would deliver around $15b over the next 4 years. Coincidentally, that's pretty near the exact tax rebate a rental property owner with an average mortgage and average interest rate will receive this year...
The estimate tax cut for my CSC-holding family of 5 - based on Nationals's pre-election calculator - was $15-20 per week. For some this will make a huge difference, however I'm happy to take bets on whether the final amount will be so "high" at all. Also, for us it is a joke because the new funding rules we receive for our 2 autistic children (who also happen to be why neither parent can work full-time) will either mean we need to find $100+/week to cover activities that benefit them greatly, but no longer fit the criteria. Or, we cut those activities altogether and deal with the fall-out.
I appreciate your perspective and grateful you’re in this community to place it
Thank you, and I am grateful for the free student subscription for the Kākā - it's a fantastic resource. Even being a student is something to be grateful for: Lincoln uni kept some postgrad courses fees-free post-Covid, which means I (and many others) are able to slowly "upgrade" while working, then increase our earning potential and benefit to society in future.
On the climate change front: an early exercise in managed retreat that is not going very well:
https://www.odt.co.nz/southland/hope-solution-eroding-well-beach
Highlights the need for a central government policy on managed retreat
Thank you again, Bernard.
NZ voted in National and the other two, in the context that these 'tax cuts' would happen, so they have in theory a mandate for them but, and it is a large one, no pun intended, it was based on smoke and mirrors, the foreign buyers tax etc, and they certainly did not have a mandate to destroy the economy. National Party take the reins, you will not succeed with fulfilling Nicola's promises. Replace the L Truss(es). They are as we know also mining vapers for money, and clearly breach the UN charter in this. A latest finding should be broadcast, but was not unpredictable. Remember life insurance increases are the same for vapers and tobacco smokers, WHO et al warnings etc. University College London :
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2024/mar/similar-dna-changes-found-cells-both-smokers-and-e-cigarette-users This DNA change is found also in abnormally high levels in lung cancer and precancerous cells. It is extremely worrying. Close the candy-like vape displays, do the right thing Christopher, Winston and David. Get your money from something else.
Did National, Act and NZ First get voted in or did Labour get voted out because of their total lack of leadership? We have parties which got 6 - 8% of the vote telling us all how to think right now.
Yes - Labour lost.. I don't think they had total lack of leadership. Some of the issues are more apparent in hindsight.
My personal objection to Labour was that they were centralizing everything. A country and government which pays attention to its provinces will flourish. Hopefully the Labour Party (of which I was a member for 43 years) will start talking to those of us who believe in "local". I often despaired as I listened to MP's defending only central solutions. An example was we had a brilliant CDHB and its leadership got shafted by Labour MP's who before the election were their greatest supporters. It might be a good time for the left to consider what sort of candidates are selected for parliament?
Some of the issues (who said tax reform?) were so blindingly obvious. Even Labour's own ministers didn't like the path the leadership was taking.
Labour was drowned out by the Atlas funded Groundswell, Taxpayers Union. Plus hundreds of thousands of donations by the rich listers of NZ.
Labour lost courage to act in the last term. They were so afraid of losing, they lost. Like your are taught in defensive driving - if you look at the tree, you will hit the tree.
You’d have to talk to Chris Luxon about that?
This is the same as borrowing to buy groceries.
When they said it's like running a household budget, they didnt mention whether it's a good household budget
The NZ economy has failed because investors get a better return by buying an old house and renting it to poor people than they get by investing in a job-creating enterprise.
The former is subsidised by over 2 billion a year (Accommodation supplement) and gives tax free capital gains. Unless these levers are changed the economy is beyond repair.
None of the economists quoted above have the courage to address this fatal flaw.
The foodbank situation is appalling. An industry on which low income people are increasingly dependent is in imminent danger of collapse . We need total outrage at the hunger and misery that is all around us if only we open our eyes. I suspect even the wrongheaded Working for Families policy that is supposed to see an increase in the iniquitous IWTC from 1 July may be a causality of budget cuts. The fixed threshold for abatement of WFF at a crazy rate of 27% has been $42,700 total family income since 2018- creating an enormous squeeze on low income working families. There is zero relief in sight.
No one has questioned the continuing funding of the NZSF-- essentially borrowing to create investment in overseas equities-- and what for? Is it to create the illusion that NZ Super in its present form is sustainable forever?
The budget policy statement makes a virtue out of reaching a surplus, reducing the level of public debt as a percentage of GDP, and reducing the size of the public sector. All while reducing income tax rates and reckoning no loss of public services.
No recognition or consideration of the fact that a public surplus is paid for by reductions in private sector savings.
No standing back and noting that other countries that the three headed taniwha aspires to becoming have much higher public debt to GDP ratios. No thought as to whether this means we could comfortably have a higher public debt to GDP ratio.
And the ideological drive to reduce the level and cost of public services, apparently based on some myth that the level and quality of public services were perfect in 2017, so we should reduce the public sector back to that level.
The budget policy statement is just deluded reckons by a three headed taniwha that is well out of its depth.
It beggars belief that a lot of this extra borrowing could have been avoided if they had not sold out to Act in the coalition agreement on the reversal of interest on mortgage deductibility. Prebble has got some nerve spouting about not introducing tax cuts for middle/low income while also backing his Act mates on tax relief for landlords
Because they in their hearts support ACT policy gives them the excuse to implement the policies they didn’t dare take to the electorate.
Exactly - Melissa Lee has just been wrapped on the knuckles for policy within her own Broadcasting portfolio because she didn't get Winston 6%ters to approve it first... National are really happily pandering to the minority crackpots in order to provide themselves with an excuse to embrace their inner-gremlin!
Which media outlet is going to get the lettuce live-stream out first? Nicola either has to resign and not deliver tax cuts, or deliver tax cuts against the advice of literally everyone. She’s going to Truss it all up.