Paying subscribers can ask Bernard Hickey about the week’s news, including the extended negotiations to form a Government, Auckland's push for congestion charging and our 'Churn & Burn' economy
Can we spare a thought for ANZ and their touching concerns that home affordability is becoming the domain of the rich and privileged? They have somehow, inextricably and through no fault of their own found themselves in a position where their profits - a modest and measly few billion - are now at risk. A true tragedy.
Thanks JK. To be fair to ANZ (and I'm obviously conflicted here so take whatever I say with a grain of salt) I think the high bank profits is one of the consequences of the broken market, rather than the cause. I suspect they would love to lend heavily to people building new homes, if only there were enough of them.
One of the common objections to the removal of car parking on roads through shopping/business areas seems to be that the shops/businesses on those roads will be forced out of business because without parking, they will have no customers. The latest iteration of this has been the recent debacle regarding the AT's plans to remove 27 car park spots on K road to improve bus travel times, and presumably make the street a more pleasant place for pedestrians, cyclists, scooter riders et al.
Is there any research/evidence that supports the objecting business owners' view that without allowing customers to park right outside their shop, the shop will obviously go out of business? I personally cannot believe this is true at all, but I'm curious whether there is any better information than my 'reckon'?
There were a couple of news articles from here in Hamilton that mentioned the % of turnover decrease for a some shops where vehicle access was restricted due to ongoing construction for road layout changes. The changes meant that vehicles couldn't park outside the shops temporarily and there were fewer vehicles passing by. A second one where parking outside a cafe was unavailable due to construction of watermains I think. I can't remember now what the figures were. It's a really different context though to a location like K Road where there is heaps of foot traffic and its already really accessible via public transport and other modes. Both the examples above, the cafe is well connected to walking and cycling networks but not regular public transport and it's also in the middle of a suburb. You wouldn't think in KRoad or any location in the central city it would make a difference.
I avoid roads that have roadworks/construction on them. I don't think that is exactly the same thing. Often with roadworks, the shops have to have signage saying they are still open, as it isn't obvious.
Hi - the 'evidence/research is all around us. Businesses often close when bus or cycle lanes go through - most don't complain or comment, they just go. The point is being missed because people reduce this to an idealogical argument rather than hearing what the retailers are saying. Here's what's really at stake: a retail business commits to a space based on the ecosystem that exists. They sign a 3 - 7 year lease based on those features - whether it is parking nearby, loading zones for deliveries, other hospitality nearby, council zoning etc etc. Many of these businesses don't make a lot of money and often take years to build a clientele that gets to know they're there, where to park, how to access, what they offer. When there's a shock to that ecosystem, these retailers/hospo businesses often fail. That shock could be that it takes two years to dig up a street and replace parking with cycle or bus lanes for example, or the large city carpark nearby is damaged by the earthquake, or whatever. From the outside we don't see those struggles, and many don't really seem to care if that retailer loses their home (as usually commercial leases are personally guaranteed). We see the year of construction mayhem as 'moving forward to a better tomorrow' - all the business sees is disruption and loss of business. In this scenario the business isn't wrong, it's just their perspective. And there's no point trying to prove them wrong, because what they see as their ecosystem may well have changed and they won't be there to reap the benefits of the change. This rant isn't opposing cycle or bus lanes or mode shift - it's a lament that somehow the small retailer or hospo operator became part of a social argument they didn't sign up for. At the moment these sectors are reeling from every kind of local Govt, National Govt and RBNZ intervention (See The Post's article on how tough it is: https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/350108015/good-bad-and-utterly-brutal-side-hospitality) - these guys need sympathy, not 'evidence'.
Agree with this. I also think it's important to remember that we need to plan to cater for everyone. There are some older people that can't walk long distances and so providing some vehicle access is important for people that can't viably use other modes, for whatever reason. It's also about how close shops are to the people that use them and what the service is. A doctors surgery for example is likely different to a corner dairy in terms of viable modes of travel. Businesses will make location decisions based partly on accessibility at the time they establish.
What evidence do you have other than your observation. My understanding is that retail business often improves when cycle lanes and/or pedestrianisation of streets around shopping centres occur.
My observations are based on decades working with the retail sector and years as publisher of Apparel Magazine, as Chief Executive of the Apparel & Textile Federation and the Chairman of Fashion Industry New Zealand. However, that's not the point here. If you've read my comment you'll see I've said that a change of ecosystem is the issue. Sure, maybe retail areas might perform better after mode changes, but many businesses don't survive the change - a good example would be to look at how many businesses on K'Rd didn't survive recent years of roadworks and disruption for example (is anyone measuring that statistic?). Often it seems to me that the businesses that benefit from pedestrianisation aren't the ones that had to endure the process or the change of ecosystem.
Thanks Paul. I agree on the disruption and the change of circumstance. I think compensation and helping retailers and hospo through these transitions is helpful. I also think councils and transport planners often try to go half way, which can be worse than just changing to a walkable/cycling city in one go. But I also think the evidence does matter. Just in the long run. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966692323002053
Well said. I wish there was a way to make retail/hospo business more mobile - seven year personally-guaranteed commercial leases with automatic inflation adjustments are just hell for many businesses right now and means they can't do anything when change happens. Those millstones stop retailers moving out of, or moving to areas they feel better suit their business format. BTW these are the same businesses that have seen relentless rises in their retail rents even during Covid and the RBNZ imposed downturn we're currently facing. I don't blame them for opposing disruption. Keep up the great work Bernard!
there has been an increase in semi mobile cafes here. Sort of large size food trucks but they are fixed in place with plumbing etc. They are located normally within car parks of other retail stores and still need consents. But they do have the ability to move relatively easily if other locations become more favourable or the current location is no longer suitable. It makes sense when you compare it risk wise to a 7 year lease I guess.
More about you, actually. I've been amazed at your work rate and all you've done as the most insightful journalism in New Zealand. I suspect a lot of others feel the same way. I really enjoy your daily podcasts and emails, but I'd get by if you gave yourself a break and it was a couple a week and not every day. And I'd rather know that was giving you more time to do your digging and delving. So, as one happyy subscriber, please do give yourself a bit more space and scope.
And on the Hoon, it's great but move it to a Thursday if that works better for you and other contributors. But please keep Robert Patman, Josie Pagani, Cathrine Dyer and, yes, the exuberant Peter Bale. They're all great. But could we adjust Peter's medication just a tad so he doesn't interrupt quite so much. 😊
I'd endorse that - updates are nice for us to maintain a broad awareness but you probably don't need to put the full housing theory of everything lens on each one - you've got us well trained by now.
Then we have have those deep dives to help crank open the Overton window. Maybe a mix of ones you identify and some suggested by members of the Kākā flock (cough implications of debt financing and ratings on infrastructure investment cough)
I would like to see the daily newsletter short and with links for those who do have the time to read more mid-week, and a longer deep dive when there's something that requires a deeper dive.
I agree also - While I love listening to your podcasts on my way to work in the morning, happy for you to take some much deserved breaks! Same for the Hoon, as long as we still get to hear from the usual voices 😊
Thanks Glen. That is much appreciated. I have been thinking about this a lot lately. I am a hustler and as I've gotten older my ability to keep up the pace has ebbed.
Hi Bernard, I am giving you a virtual "wand". Please eliminate one part of government expenditure that is completely unnecessary (vis-a-vis sustainability) and tell me whre you think the savings should be spent?
Thanks Chris. Housing. It's always about housing. Anything on transport/water that allows more housing supply that's well connected with walking/cycling and public transport.
What do you think drove the outgoing Labour government to suddenly let masses of extra people into NZ - throwing open the gates after inexplicably locking out the people we really needed post Covid?
Was it their decline in popularity, the change of leader, the increase in departing kiwis, pent up demand, or recognition of a policy failure and in the panic to be seen to do something they just abandoned control?
I've found it hard to reconcile their 2 positions - or understand either........
While negotiations between ACT, the Nats, and NZF have dragged on in circles, Labour and the Nats seem to have worked together arguably well as part of the caretaker government (Pacific Islands Forum, APEC etc).
Begs the question - what's the major blocker to a grand coalition? Germany has MMP and has these all the time. Arguably the Nats and Labour have more in common with each other than any other two parties in Parliament.
You are so right. The Nats and Labour have more in common with each other than any other two parties in Parliament. That is why so many people who a century ago would unhesitatingly have voted for Labour, then their champion, now vote for the Greens, or, despairing, don't vote at all.
Given the almost pathological desire to have no obligations on the government’s balance sheet, if and when do you think it will be forced to include its “carbon” liabilities?
I know this isn't your primary area, but it is going to affect the economy, badly, and is currently 'relevant' particularly as if the Coalition don't do anything we may even beat Estonia at highest vape rate and not just be second in the world in this extraordinary practice, using the delicate airways to get nicotine into the blood, requiring propylene glycol and various other additives to do the job.
It's a shocker. I'm trying to get it on the table so we aren't becoming even more third world here, with an uninformed public being heavily exploited and advised 'it's tobacco or vapes', both of which make the companies like Phillip Morris money, with no encouragement to get off nicotine! There is no government quitting programme for vapes or nicotine! just for switching from tobacco to vapes! considered by the American Cancer Society too hazardous to use even to get off the carcinogenic tobacco cigarettes.
The new government has to address this one.
This is a link to an article I wrote yesterday on the Greens policy on vaping based on their online policy doc and material received from their spokesperson on the matter.
It is an update in a petition begun in June catalysed by new SVRs popping up near schools.
A note - National have no formal policy yet I believe. They use, in communication with me, the concerning 'waiting for evidence' phrase the Greens use, but Nats do acknowledge large input they have had from clinicians, school principals et al.
The same link includes updates which describe the NZ First and ACT parties' policies.
Hi Bernard, Is it possible for the government to run out of money if there’s no sitting parliament, while negotiations drag on for supply and imprest? Or is it possible for the state services commissioner or someone to use Grant Robertson’s old credit card or something more formal? Thanks Ben
I would've thought because the public sector is operating under the 1 July 2023 - 30 June 2024 budget approved in May, it'd be fine for a few more months?
Does not having a government sworn in excuse NZ for not condemning Israel’s genocide and ethnic cleansing of Gaza not to mention murderous illegal occupation of the West Bank, basically ongoing gross human rights abuses of the Palestinian people, or would such ethical principles risk our economic and trade relationships?
A while ago you had a chart showing the size of the public service and how it had decreased under the previous National Government and increased under the Labour Government. Do you know how the size of our public service compares internationally?
Hi Bernard. Recently (9 november) the historian Dr Andre Brett (who specializes in and wrote a book on the history of NZ rail) sent the following tweet "we need serious analysis of causes and solutions for the astronomical cost of capital projects in NZ. It's much deeper than inane mumbling about "we're far from anywhere" "better things aren't possible". Our capital works did not always cost so much more than in comparable economies so it's a task historians must be involved in - what changed, why, how can we address it". She later said in comments that even reducing costs to Australian levels would be a big improvement. The post was about a news article on the Wellington town hall and $52m city to sea bridge repair costs. What's your answer to her question and what should Chris Luxon do as Prime Minister to reduce the cost of major capital projects (both in transport and other areas)?
Hi Bernard, Living in Northland we are again told SH1 may close for a long period of time. The state of the roads are terrible up here. Is there something that has happened recently to make the quality so terrible? I don't remember it used to be this bad (for example, our main road was re done earlier in the year and before the cones were removed, it already had potholes). It seems a waste of resources to have redo and redo the roads. Gossip up here is that due to the Canterbury earthquakes, they saved money by using sub-quality materials, or the bitumen is imported now so substandard, or the weather. Do you know?
Here in Christchurch my street got the total makeover about twenty years ago. By the council and not a contractor. Then with the earthquakes there was a big liquefaction bubble in the street. And for several years after all the traffic drove over this bump and it didn't break.
So, my belief is that back then the thickness of the seal was thicker than it is now: - built to last. But now the roading is done by contractors who have less thickness to their seal because: - tests show it doesn't need to be as thick, costs can be kept down, maintenance will not go up, etc. (Pick your spurious reasons why changes were made).
Thanks, that makes sense. I remember around that time I was living in Auckland, and the main road outside our house was resealed. It went from a quiet, smooth road to noisy chip seal. Maybe the type of seal has changed as well?
Surely roads are built to the specification provided by the "customer".
The council (or government) specifies the road design, the contractor quotes to the specification and does the job. Would we not be looking at design and specifying for the ones at fault unless the workmanship itself is shoddy and incapable of complying with the standards required.
Until the contractors quote for a different lower specification because that's the one that the neighbouring council uses. I don't know the internal workings of councils but if, say, three contractors all quoted for a contract using a lower specification what is the council going to do? Not have the work done or accept one of the quotes and effectively be now locked into a lower specification?
Possibly, can't say I know the mechanism. It does still point back to the decision making and choices on roading quality when the contract is awarded (unless the contractor does a bad job and has to make good)
A lot of it is the weather. Potholes are caused by rain. And heavy rain is exponentially worse. Northern nz has has had one of the wettest 12 months ever. So there are lots of potholes as a result.
But squeezed long term maintenance budgets are a factor as well.
Oh and I forgot to add the increase in truck max weight limits under the Key govt has also accelerated a lot of road wear tear that is beginning to show now.
Honestly, it wasn't a rainy week when our main road got redone, and it still got potholes instantly. So many projects up here are having to be redone. I'm sure the weather is a factor, but it isn't always.
In my imagination at least, the roads are built by the lowest price bidder, therefore a race to the bottom with quality taking the biggest hit. The benefit to the contractor of doing a cheap job up front is more guaranteed maintenance $$ down the line.
I'm sure to be bashed for this, but Northland voters for some insane reason beyond me keep voting for labour and/or national.....lower case intended. Both of these lot have consistently, without exception, ignored Northland. Why they don't vote NZF as the electorate MP (SJ or WP) beats me. Both will get more done for Northland in one term than anything the other lot of useless pillocks since he 1980s.
Insanity rules....repeating the same and expecting a different outcome. They did the same again this time around, so IMO they'll get what they voted for. Less than bugger all....be it upon your own heads.
Have we really recovered from the supply issues that arose because of covid?
It is very noticeable, for example, that supermarkets do not stock the range of goods that they had pre-covid, shelves are empty, pasta still being rationed.
yes and brands are limited. Why can't you buy Champion flour at the supermarkets now?
The other thing I want to know is what is a land tax that has been metnioned at times. If you own your own home, would it mean that you would have to pay another tax ? or any property?
Can we spare a thought for ANZ and their touching concerns that home affordability is becoming the domain of the rich and privileged? They have somehow, inextricably and through no fault of their own found themselves in a position where their profits - a modest and measly few billion - are now at risk. A true tragedy.
Thanks JK. To be fair to ANZ (and I'm obviously conflicted here so take whatever I say with a grain of salt) I think the high bank profits is one of the consequences of the broken market, rather than the cause. I suspect they would love to lend heavily to people building new homes, if only there were enough of them.
"...their profits - a modest and measly few billion...."
bovine faeces
the profits that ANZ keeps making in NZ are colossal and grossly excessive!!!
the damage that the oz banks are doing to NZ's economy and society are the tragedy.
One of the common objections to the removal of car parking on roads through shopping/business areas seems to be that the shops/businesses on those roads will be forced out of business because without parking, they will have no customers. The latest iteration of this has been the recent debacle regarding the AT's plans to remove 27 car park spots on K road to improve bus travel times, and presumably make the street a more pleasant place for pedestrians, cyclists, scooter riders et al.
Is there any research/evidence that supports the objecting business owners' view that without allowing customers to park right outside their shop, the shop will obviously go out of business? I personally cannot believe this is true at all, but I'm curious whether there is any better information than my 'reckon'?
There were a couple of news articles from here in Hamilton that mentioned the % of turnover decrease for a some shops where vehicle access was restricted due to ongoing construction for road layout changes. The changes meant that vehicles couldn't park outside the shops temporarily and there were fewer vehicles passing by. A second one where parking outside a cafe was unavailable due to construction of watermains I think. I can't remember now what the figures were. It's a really different context though to a location like K Road where there is heaps of foot traffic and its already really accessible via public transport and other modes. Both the examples above, the cafe is well connected to walking and cycling networks but not regular public transport and it's also in the middle of a suburb. You wouldn't think in KRoad or any location in the central city it would make a difference.
I avoid roads that have roadworks/construction on them. I don't think that is exactly the same thing. Often with roadworks, the shops have to have signage saying they are still open, as it isn't obvious.
Hi - the 'evidence/research is all around us. Businesses often close when bus or cycle lanes go through - most don't complain or comment, they just go. The point is being missed because people reduce this to an idealogical argument rather than hearing what the retailers are saying. Here's what's really at stake: a retail business commits to a space based on the ecosystem that exists. They sign a 3 - 7 year lease based on those features - whether it is parking nearby, loading zones for deliveries, other hospitality nearby, council zoning etc etc. Many of these businesses don't make a lot of money and often take years to build a clientele that gets to know they're there, where to park, how to access, what they offer. When there's a shock to that ecosystem, these retailers/hospo businesses often fail. That shock could be that it takes two years to dig up a street and replace parking with cycle or bus lanes for example, or the large city carpark nearby is damaged by the earthquake, or whatever. From the outside we don't see those struggles, and many don't really seem to care if that retailer loses their home (as usually commercial leases are personally guaranteed). We see the year of construction mayhem as 'moving forward to a better tomorrow' - all the business sees is disruption and loss of business. In this scenario the business isn't wrong, it's just their perspective. And there's no point trying to prove them wrong, because what they see as their ecosystem may well have changed and they won't be there to reap the benefits of the change. This rant isn't opposing cycle or bus lanes or mode shift - it's a lament that somehow the small retailer or hospo operator became part of a social argument they didn't sign up for. At the moment these sectors are reeling from every kind of local Govt, National Govt and RBNZ intervention (See The Post's article on how tough it is: https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/350108015/good-bad-and-utterly-brutal-side-hospitality) - these guys need sympathy, not 'evidence'.
Agree with this. I also think it's important to remember that we need to plan to cater for everyone. There are some older people that can't walk long distances and so providing some vehicle access is important for people that can't viably use other modes, for whatever reason. It's also about how close shops are to the people that use them and what the service is. A doctors surgery for example is likely different to a corner dairy in terms of viable modes of travel. Businesses will make location decisions based partly on accessibility at the time they establish.
What evidence do you have other than your observation. My understanding is that retail business often improves when cycle lanes and/or pedestrianisation of streets around shopping centres occur.
My observations are based on decades working with the retail sector and years as publisher of Apparel Magazine, as Chief Executive of the Apparel & Textile Federation and the Chairman of Fashion Industry New Zealand. However, that's not the point here. If you've read my comment you'll see I've said that a change of ecosystem is the issue. Sure, maybe retail areas might perform better after mode changes, but many businesses don't survive the change - a good example would be to look at how many businesses on K'Rd didn't survive recent years of roadworks and disruption for example (is anyone measuring that statistic?). Often it seems to me that the businesses that benefit from pedestrianisation aren't the ones that had to endure the process or the change of ecosystem.
Thanks
Thanks Paul. I agree on the disruption and the change of circumstance. I think compensation and helping retailers and hospo through these transitions is helpful. I also think councils and transport planners often try to go half way, which can be worse than just changing to a walkable/cycling city in one go. But I also think the evidence does matter. Just in the long run. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966692323002053
Well said. I wish there was a way to make retail/hospo business more mobile - seven year personally-guaranteed commercial leases with automatic inflation adjustments are just hell for many businesses right now and means they can't do anything when change happens. Those millstones stop retailers moving out of, or moving to areas they feel better suit their business format. BTW these are the same businesses that have seen relentless rises in their retail rents even during Covid and the RBNZ imposed downturn we're currently facing. I don't blame them for opposing disruption. Keep up the great work Bernard!
there has been an increase in semi mobile cafes here. Sort of large size food trucks but they are fixed in place with plumbing etc. They are located normally within car parks of other retail stores and still need consents. But they do have the ability to move relatively easily if other locations become more favourable or the current location is no longer suitable. It makes sense when you compare it risk wise to a 7 year lease I guess.
More about you, actually. I've been amazed at your work rate and all you've done as the most insightful journalism in New Zealand. I suspect a lot of others feel the same way. I really enjoy your daily podcasts and emails, but I'd get by if you gave yourself a break and it was a couple a week and not every day. And I'd rather know that was giving you more time to do your digging and delving. So, as one happyy subscriber, please do give yourself a bit more space and scope.
And on the Hoon, it's great but move it to a Thursday if that works better for you and other contributors. But please keep Robert Patman, Josie Pagani, Cathrine Dyer and, yes, the exuberant Peter Bale. They're all great. But could we adjust Peter's medication just a tad so he doesn't interrupt quite so much. 😊
I agree with the workload! I appreciate the long pieces, and don't mind not having a daily update (although I love them too).
Thanks Sarah. Maybe I should keep the daily ones shorter and work more on the less frequent, but deeper, deep dives. I'd welcome feedback on this.
I'd endorse that - updates are nice for us to maintain a broad awareness but you probably don't need to put the full housing theory of everything lens on each one - you've got us well trained by now.
Then we have have those deep dives to help crank open the Overton window. Maybe a mix of ones you identify and some suggested by members of the Kākā flock (cough implications of debt financing and ratings on infrastructure investment cough)
I would like to see the daily newsletter short and with links for those who do have the time to read more mid-week, and a longer deep dive when there's something that requires a deeper dive.
I agree but let's be serious this hasn't been daily since the ANZ 5 in 5 thing started. 3 or 4 chorus a week has become the norm.
Fair comment, but I've interpreted as him being overstretched. Let's give permission and agree a new compact, to the extent there is one.
Thanks Your Servant. That stung a little. Makes me want to work a bit harder. This week?
Don't stress, I'm not going to cancel my sub anytime soon.
I agree also - While I love listening to your podcasts on my way to work in the morning, happy for you to take some much deserved breaks! Same for the Hoon, as long as we still get to hear from the usual voices 😊
I love Peter interrupting it adds to my listening skills I need to stay alert as information moves along.
Thanks Glen. That is much appreciated. I have been thinking about this a lot lately. I am a hustler and as I've gotten older my ability to keep up the pace has ebbed.
Hi Bernard, I am giving you a virtual "wand". Please eliminate one part of government expenditure that is completely unnecessary (vis-a-vis sustainability) and tell me whre you think the savings should be spent?
Thanks Chris. Housing. It's always about housing. Anything on transport/water that allows more housing supply that's well connected with walking/cycling and public transport.
What do you think drove the outgoing Labour government to suddenly let masses of extra people into NZ - throwing open the gates after inexplicably locking out the people we really needed post Covid?
Was it their decline in popularity, the change of leader, the increase in departing kiwis, pent up demand, or recognition of a policy failure and in the panic to be seen to do something they just abandoned control?
I've found it hard to reconcile their 2 positions - or understand either........
Panic is the correct answer.
While negotiations between ACT, the Nats, and NZF have dragged on in circles, Labour and the Nats seem to have worked together arguably well as part of the caretaker government (Pacific Islands Forum, APEC etc).
Begs the question - what's the major blocker to a grand coalition? Germany has MMP and has these all the time. Arguably the Nats and Labour have more in common with each other than any other two parties in Parliament.
You are so right. The Nats and Labour have more in common with each other than any other two parties in Parliament. That is why so many people who a century ago would unhesitatingly have voted for Labour, then their champion, now vote for the Greens, or, despairing, don't vote at all.
Thanks Nick B. I think culture is the issue. Decades of believing the other guys are much worse than yourselves.
It's true the others guys are much worse than Labour but that in itself doesn't make Labour so much better, just a tad.
Given the almost pathological desire to have no obligations on the government’s balance sheet, if and when do you think it will be forced to include its “carbon” liabilities?
Sadly, these decisions are political, no matter how much Treasury protests about its independence, let alone the Auditor General.
Hi Bernard
I know this isn't your primary area, but it is going to affect the economy, badly, and is currently 'relevant' particularly as if the Coalition don't do anything we may even beat Estonia at highest vape rate and not just be second in the world in this extraordinary practice, using the delicate airways to get nicotine into the blood, requiring propylene glycol and various other additives to do the job.
It's a shocker. I'm trying to get it on the table so we aren't becoming even more third world here, with an uninformed public being heavily exploited and advised 'it's tobacco or vapes', both of which make the companies like Phillip Morris money, with no encouragement to get off nicotine! There is no government quitting programme for vapes or nicotine! just for switching from tobacco to vapes! considered by the American Cancer Society too hazardous to use even to get off the carcinogenic tobacco cigarettes.
The new government has to address this one.
This is a link to an article I wrote yesterday on the Greens policy on vaping based on their online policy doc and material received from their spokesperson on the matter.
'Where is the Greens party on vaping?'
https://chng.it/2cgnQzFX2q
It is an update in a petition begun in June catalysed by new SVRs popping up near schools.
A note - National have no formal policy yet I believe. They use, in communication with me, the concerning 'waiting for evidence' phrase the Greens use, but Nats do acknowledge large input they have had from clinicians, school principals et al.
The same link includes updates which describe the NZ First and ACT parties' policies.
Hi Bernard, Is it possible for the government to run out of money if there’s no sitting parliament, while negotiations drag on for supply and imprest? Or is it possible for the state services commissioner or someone to use Grant Robertson’s old credit card or something more formal? Thanks Ben
I would've thought because the public sector is operating under the 1 July 2023 - 30 June 2024 budget approved in May, it'd be fine for a few more months?
Does not having a government sworn in excuse NZ for not condemning Israel’s genocide and ethnic cleansing of Gaza not to mention murderous illegal occupation of the West Bank, basically ongoing gross human rights abuses of the Palestinian people, or would such ethical principles risk our economic and trade relationships?
Or at least call for a cease fire as requested by the Palestinian ambassador?
A while ago you had a chart showing the size of the public service and how it had decreased under the previous National Government and increased under the Labour Government. Do you know how the size of our public service compares internationally?
Hi Bernard. Recently (9 november) the historian Dr Andre Brett (who specializes in and wrote a book on the history of NZ rail) sent the following tweet "we need serious analysis of causes and solutions for the astronomical cost of capital projects in NZ. It's much deeper than inane mumbling about "we're far from anywhere" "better things aren't possible". Our capital works did not always cost so much more than in comparable economies so it's a task historians must be involved in - what changed, why, how can we address it". She later said in comments that even reducing costs to Australian levels would be a big improvement. The post was about a news article on the Wellington town hall and $52m city to sea bridge repair costs. What's your answer to her question and what should Chris Luxon do as Prime Minister to reduce the cost of major capital projects (both in transport and other areas)?
Hi Bernard, Living in Northland we are again told SH1 may close for a long period of time. The state of the roads are terrible up here. Is there something that has happened recently to make the quality so terrible? I don't remember it used to be this bad (for example, our main road was re done earlier in the year and before the cones were removed, it already had potholes). It seems a waste of resources to have redo and redo the roads. Gossip up here is that due to the Canterbury earthquakes, they saved money by using sub-quality materials, or the bitumen is imported now so substandard, or the weather. Do you know?
I have heard it's related to not doing our own oil refining anymore, but that's purely anecdotal
That's definitely one of the rumours up here.
Hi Sarah
Here in Christchurch my street got the total makeover about twenty years ago. By the council and not a contractor. Then with the earthquakes there was a big liquefaction bubble in the street. And for several years after all the traffic drove over this bump and it didn't break.
So, my belief is that back then the thickness of the seal was thicker than it is now: - built to last. But now the roading is done by contractors who have less thickness to their seal because: - tests show it doesn't need to be as thick, costs can be kept down, maintenance will not go up, etc. (Pick your spurious reasons why changes were made).
Thanks, that makes sense. I remember around that time I was living in Auckland, and the main road outside our house was resealed. It went from a quiet, smooth road to noisy chip seal. Maybe the type of seal has changed as well?
Surely roads are built to the specification provided by the "customer".
The council (or government) specifies the road design, the contractor quotes to the specification and does the job. Would we not be looking at design and specifying for the ones at fault unless the workmanship itself is shoddy and incapable of complying with the standards required.
Until the contractors quote for a different lower specification because that's the one that the neighbouring council uses. I don't know the internal workings of councils but if, say, three contractors all quoted for a contract using a lower specification what is the council going to do? Not have the work done or accept one of the quotes and effectively be now locked into a lower specification?
Possibly, can't say I know the mechanism. It does still point back to the decision making and choices on roading quality when the contract is awarded (unless the contractor does a bad job and has to make good)
A lot of it is the weather. Potholes are caused by rain. And heavy rain is exponentially worse. Northern nz has has had one of the wettest 12 months ever. So there are lots of potholes as a result.
But squeezed long term maintenance budgets are a factor as well.
Oh and I forgot to add the increase in truck max weight limits under the Key govt has also accelerated a lot of road wear tear that is beginning to show now.
Oh yes, I forgot about the trucks. I'm sure that's part of it.
You nailed it, wear as a fourth power of axle weight
Honestly, it wasn't a rainy week when our main road got redone, and it still got potholes instantly. So many projects up here are having to be redone. I'm sure the weather is a factor, but it isn't always.
In my imagination at least, the roads are built by the lowest price bidder, therefore a race to the bottom with quality taking the biggest hit. The benefit to the contractor of doing a cheap job up front is more guaranteed maintenance $$ down the line.
I'm sure to be bashed for this, but Northland voters for some insane reason beyond me keep voting for labour and/or national.....lower case intended. Both of these lot have consistently, without exception, ignored Northland. Why they don't vote NZF as the electorate MP (SJ or WP) beats me. Both will get more done for Northland in one term than anything the other lot of useless pillocks since he 1980s.
Insanity rules....repeating the same and expecting a different outcome. They did the same again this time around, so IMO they'll get what they voted for. Less than bugger all....be it upon your own heads.
Have we really recovered from the supply issues that arose because of covid?
It is very noticeable, for example, that supermarkets do not stock the range of goods that they had pre-covid, shelves are empty, pasta still being rationed.
yes and brands are limited. Why can't you buy Champion flour at the supermarkets now?
The other thing I want to know is what is a land tax that has been metnioned at times. If you own your own home, would it mean that you would have to pay another tax ? or any property?
I favour a 0.75,% land tax on all residential zoned land (empty or with a house on it ) attached to a personal income tax reduction . My question is .
What your view is the benefit, or not , of a Land Tax vs an enforced countrywide Rates Rise for all Residential zoned land ?
Land Tax would go to the central govt purse vs Rates go to decentralized Councils but specifically for infrastructure work all over the country.
We need the funds !