82 Comments
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

Isn’t this exhausting? It feels like we are destined to be on this path forever, with no way out in sight.

Expand full comment
author

Yep. Only changes when enough people vote for parties with different policies.

Expand full comment

More saliently, we need to build an independent movement that will pressure all political parties. They are too immeshed in the parliamentary bureaucracy, too enthralled to the monied elites to make significant changes of direction of their own volition. Collective action around public housing is a possible starting point.

Expand full comment

i totally agree with your diagnosis Maurice. It is so stuck, so rusted in place, so frightening. I would've just clicked 'like' but it wouldn't work

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

Inexplicable, does Labour actually wish to lose the election?

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

Quite the opposite I fear, young, low income people vote at much lower rates than older well secured Kiwis. It’s a cynical crumb to the already advantaged.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

Please open this one up, so freaking infuriating

Expand full comment
author

Thanks Holly. Have done. Open for sharing now.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

I have no problem with the Government putting taxes in place ... but not for Kiwisaver. We're a nation trying to encourage savings and investment, thats why the Government is giving a subsidy to kiwisavers. Reclaiming some of this subsidy back via GST is a complete nonsense.

I do not for one second buy the arguement that it's about fairness across the tax system. Kiwisasver doesn't really have a competing product, the nations goal here is universal use of Kiwisaver. This feels more like an own goal.

If the Government thinks the fund managers won't pass it on, they have their heads in the sand.

Expand full comment
author

Thanks Dave. IRD acknowledges it will be passed on. And you’re right. If it was about fairness, then unearned wealth would be taxed too.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

There are 3 reasons to impose a tax. First, to reduce private demand( ie fight inflation), second to discourage activities (eg alcohol), third to take money from those who have too much (address inequality). Funding the governments spending is not a reason, the government doesnt need this money, as it is not funded by taxes or borrowing. Surely this tax is in direct opposition to the second reason, as is the justification of leveling the playing field. This is economic illiteracy of the worst kind.

Expand full comment
author

Agreed Greg. Seems opportunistic.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

Thanks for this analysis Bernard! I was very surprised to read about this and frustrated that Labour isn’t following the recommendations of its own TWG. Please open this up so that more people can be informed!

Expand full comment
author

Will do. Thanks Reuel.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

This sickens me. It's pathetic. There is no good reason for this, and it will hurt tens of thousands of young kiwis the most - the longer anyone has to go in their Kiwisaver investment prospective 'term' the more this will sting. I can't express how disgusted I am at this. Thank you for the clear concise write up. Perhaps Labour is sick of governing?

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

I was starting to wonder if Labour had enough of managing so many new MPs and actually wants to have a coalition govt next year.

Perhaps the electorate needs to give it to them by voting Greens or Maori Party.

Expand full comment
author

Merav. Thanks. The Greens will only vote with Labour. So it doesn’t change things.

Expand full comment

You say this a lot, but surely the Greens have the leverage of forcing Labour to change in order to get their support? (Not when Labour don't need it, as currently, and not when James "sweet doe eyed fawn" Shaw takes a ministerial warrant with zero chance of influencing the policies he's agreeing to front for, but that's about political competence).

Expand full comment

If Labour will need the Greens & TMP to form a coalition (a true one that will require them to make compromises to their neoliberalism) then a change is possible. I don't think NZ ever had a situation of true pressure to form a coalition to see what small parties can demand and get.

Expand full comment

Yes and how motivated will they be to work when a big chunk gets taken in a massive tax burden when they’re on lower pay and even saving isn’t worth both tax, fees and risk. This is truly terrible especially when a vast bulk of it goes without asset testing to the already well off elderly not the most in need and Ministers, Corps and Uber wealthy’s vanity projects research and businesses and to prop up banks. Just unfathomable how they think this will go down well or reduce division and inequity.

Expand full comment

It further undermines trust and confidence in Government frankly.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

This is gutting. I'm wondering which parties are the best alternatives to this sort of policy. I wonder if this would have happened if Labour wasn't governing alone. Thanks for you analysis - I doubt it would have ever seen the light of day unless you hadn't picked it up.

Expand full comment
author

Thanks Frances. Bit surprised the Greens didn’t jump on it.

Expand full comment

Well, TOP just did. Watch this space...

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

I wouldn’t have an issue with GST being applied on fund management fees for KiwiSaver if they removed the tax on contributions. NZ is one of the only jurisdictions that taxes you when you contribute rather than withdraw, and the effect on compound interest is much more negative with this approach leaving retirees worse off in the end.

I’m sure they won’t, but a savvy move for labour to counter this would be to remove taxes on contributions, but given the whole 30/30 BS they’ve committed too I won’t be holding my breath.

Agree with the other commenters here, I was mixed about labour dooming itself to defeat next year, but this I think changes that. Not that I think National will repeal it when elected - they’ll probably let it slip quietly into obscurity unchanged.

Expand full comment
author

Thanks Nick B. I agree on the tax break on the way in. Would at least even it up with owner occupied housing on the way in.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022·edited Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

It feels like the Govt is in it's dying throes, trying to ram through everything it can before it's heart stops. I just don't get any sense of a positive future to look forward to, which I know is challenging in this omnicrisis world. If politicians talked about enduring pain now for a more equitable future, where we are investing so all families can live free of poverty, in warm dry houses close to free public transport, I could really get behind that. Hell, I would pay a land tax for that. But no one is painting that positive picture here which is why the mood is so damn gloomy, even among those of us who could bathe in a bath tub of hundred dollar notes of untaxed capital gain.

Expand full comment
author

Thanks Sonya. Sadly, a big bathtub for us home owners.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

What a zinger

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

Please open this up

Expand full comment
author

Thanks Jonathan. Have done. Open now. Feel free to share.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

I agree with the principle and this will prevent inconsistency within the managed fund space, however the change should be net neutral as to not adversely impact young New Zealanders who are forced to save for their retirement. For example, the increase in crown revenue should be offset by an increase in the government’s annual contribution to an individual’s KiwiSaver account. If David Parker is in search of tax technical purity, he would be wise to consider NZ’s current tax treatment (or lack of treatment) on capital gains and land.

Expand full comment
author

Agreed.

Expand full comment

Thanks for this Bernard, good analysis looking beyond the initial emotional reaction of the big outlets (which is of course hard to do in cases like this). Couple of questions for the uninitiated - is it unusual to not provide the impact statement when a proposal like this gets announced? Trying to get a feeling of how transparent this has tried to be. Secondly, this 30/30 anchor that we are currently tied to, how implicit is it within the beehive? Like are all MP's aware of this? How do we break out of this dated thinking? (looking through the local election bios does not inspire much hope of a grassroots change anytime in my lifetime).

Expand full comment
author

The impact statement was included, but the GST change for funds management fees wasn’t included in the minister’s statement. I’ll be following up with Parker later today.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

There is an assumption here that the Kiwisaver fund managers will pass this GST on to the account holders, i.e. instead of charging, say, 1% annually they will now charge 1.15%.

Fund managers currently rake in billions of dollars in fees and make (I was going to say 'earn' but they don't really have to work very hard) mega profits. Maybe, depending on the whole ecosystem of Kiwisaver fund managing when the GST comes into effect, the fund managers will just absorb the GST. There's a marketing angle: - "We will pay your fees GST for you".

And slightly off subject; the government needs to annually drop the highest fee charging default manager and replace it with one with lower fees. Each year there are more funds being managed but the marginal cost of managing those new funds is very close to zero.

Expand full comment
author

Thanks Steve. As you say, most unlikely to be absorbed by fund managers.

Expand full comment
Aug 30, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey

Like, if you are going to break an election promise of no new taxes, why not make it a new tax that will actually better society?

Expand full comment
author

Quite.

Expand full comment