The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Choruses
2023 set to be hottest year in 125,000 years
0:00
Current time: 0:00 / Total time: -4:32
-4:32

2023 set to be hottest year in 125,000 years

Where are the front pages and 6pm news leads about the dramatic warming that has happened this year?; EU scientists see 2023 as hottest ever after "very extreme" October beat record by 0.4 degrees C

TL;DR: With two months still to go, European Union scientists declared overnight that 2023 is on track to be the hottest in 125,000 years, with October a full 0.4 degrees celcius warmer than the previous record.

That’s the equivalent of someone breaking Usain Bolt’s record for the 100 metres of 9.58 seconds by half a second. The warming of oceans is also making it one of the wettest on record for rainfall on land, including the wettest ever for Auckland by a large margin, as these charts show.

NIWA data. Image by Richard Easther via X
Richard Easther via X

So why isn’t this front page news or leading the 6pm bulletins?

Here’s the details for any news editors reading this, via Reuters

Paying subscribers can see more detail below the paywall fold and hear more of my analysis in the podcast above. I’ve included more above the fold today because it’s of public interest and this fits with the public journalism ethos backed by subscribers, who I thank in advance.


Links to news, views, papers, reports, data et al elsewhere

Top scoops & deep dives in Aotearoa’s political economy & globally

The ‘policy bonfire’, a jeopardised climate target, and the mathematical change that fixed it The Press Charlie Mitchell

Housing, transport, education, infrastructure & population

NZ Post buying major parcel competitor - A bookshop manager has already complained to the Commerce Commission that NZ Post buying PBT Couriers would damage the quality of the courier network Newsroom Andrew Bevin

Climate, water, energy & environment

How shipping more US natural gas to Europe helped fuel CO2 pollution Reuters

2023 set to be hottest year on record, EU scientists say Reuters

How are people supposed to rebuild Paradise, California, when nobody can afford home insurance? AP News Janie Har

Poverty, inequality, health, wealth, income, education, crime & justice

Blind, solo mum desperate for Pharmac to fund life-changing medicine so she can see her kids Newshub Patrick Gower and Amanda Gillies

Children driven to school breathe in health-hurting pollutants, research finds Stuff Olivia Wannan

Geopolitics

Thousands of civilians flee north Gaza as Israeli troops and Hamas fighters battle Reuters

Economy, business & markets globally and locally

China authorities ask Ping An to take controlling stake in Country Garden, sources say Reuters

Wall St edges higher as investors digest central bank comments Reuters

Coming up

Half a billion on a hall and a courtyard - Wellington City councillors are considering spending another $240 million on repairs to Te Ngākau Civic Square, just two weeks after committing $330m to fix the Town Hall, which is also part of the square. They’ll debate that later today at a Long Term Planning meeting. The Spinoff Joel MacManus


Charts of the day

No wonder the most-sold vehicle in the United States is the F150

Justin Wolfers via X

And that minutes/gallon measure ignores efficiency gains

Joe Webster via X Essentially, the collapse in the fuel cost per gallon in last 20 years was used by buy bigger and bigger ‘cars’ with more features.

Map/Chart combo of the day

Warmer oceans mean more moisture in the atmosphere

Ben Noll via X...`

Here’s NIWA Meteorologist Ben Noll with detail on the map above and the chart below:

You have probably heard about October 2023 being the warmest October on record by a wide margin, but what about atmospheric moisture?

A warmer world is a moister world and that's evidenced by a weather variable called "total column water" or "precipitable water", the total moisture amount in a column of air, from the ground all the way up to the top of the atmosphere.

In October 2023, total column water was above normal across 67% of the planet, shaded blue on this map. Higher atmospheric moisture content loads the dice toward extreme rainfall events Ben Noll via X

caption...

Off the charts

Finnish meteorologist Mika Rantanen via X: “Probably linked to this westerly wind burst and the strengthening El Niño, the forecast for global mean temperature shows an upward spike in the coming days. Time will tell whether this spike is short-lived, as in October, or longer-lasting, as in September.“
Mika Rantanan via X: “Plot showing the global mean temperature anomaly (relative to 1850-1900) from which the forecast spike can be better visualized.”

Cartoon of the day

Ka kite ano

Bernard

Discussion about this podcast

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Choruses
The latest daily snapshot of the news, detail, insight and analysis on geo-politics, the global economy, business, markets and the local political economy for citizens and decision-makers of Aotearoa-NZ.