New Zealand's climate and housing ambitions have become sound bites on a futile hunt for electorally painless policy trade-offs. Our love of suburban homes and utes will triumph without policy pain
"The current trajectory is for politicians to try to muddle through in the hope they won’t be held accountable for the failure in the future to meet the emissions targets, or the more awful prospect of increasing transport costs by stealth and trying to regulate its way to new places to live."
The can has been kicked down the road and off the cliff and no one can face it, hence our total lack of preparation for the unfolding collapse.
Canadian environmentalist William Rees brilliantly summarised our predicament "The Scientifically Necessary is Politically unfeasible, the Politically Feasible is Scientifically Irrelevant".
Someone said 3 kinds of lies: chicken, bull and elephant copralite. The elephant variety is so embedded it is usually unseen or ignored. Call.it the degradation of liberal democracy by money or diversion. The churches and the left tied up in knots by non-class politics.
Now Bernard, surely the economic utility of public investment to switch to public transport,
of purpose driven, progressive & sustainable taxation,
of comprehensive public health, education, shelter and employment,
of proactive urban design,
of anti-trust regulation..
all this stuff was well-articulated in planning literature 35+years ago as neoliberalism "came out" with Reagan in 1980. There was a murmur of resistance on Mayday 1980 i DC by the Rainbow Coalition movement, but only one if its constituent communities flourished under the neoliberal reich. Even the Greens are tip-toeing around the rentier consensus or thru the tulips of identity politics. You are right, things are going to get interesting very fast. Great chat with Max. Just great.
Totally agree with your analysis Bernard - but I would add one other perspective. 48% of CO2 emissions come from materials we make from fossil fuels. Neither the Climate Change Commission Advice to Government or the Government has recognised this! This tends to suggest that this will also encourage leakage of emissions to other probably poorer economies. So although what you suggest is highly valid its contribution to reducing global atmospheric concentration of CO2 may not be as great as hoped for.
Cheers John. The leakages problem is real, but we still have to try. And I think those companies and countries that get ahead of the curve will reap the rewards from consumers, and avoid taxes from countries that are serious about. I think Australia, for example, is going to have a big problem selling stuff to the EU soon. Watch this space for carbon-linked tariffs from the EU and others. Even the UK. And then China...
So many things we need to do are currently politically unpalatable (ie. electoral suicide) So the vital thing to do is to have the vision, determination and wisdom to start from the other end: make the things we need to do politically acceptable, if not politically necessary. That requires both informative persuasion, and doing subtle things that, added together, change enough people's minds to make a difference. One that springs to mind is ignoring the motor trade lobbyists and legislating that all vehicles must permanently display a 'pollution' sticker next to the WoF, with a simple visual scale like we get on fridges when we buy them. Another would be forcing IRD to enforce the rules on the tax preferential treatment for double cab utes - everybody knows they are actually a massive tax rort with many 'company' utes used for the school run and boat ramp and some 'signage' so subtle or small as to be imperceptible. It would start to chip away at the desirability if more people had to pay the full cost. There are plenty more.....
Thanks Nigel. I think there'll be a crackdown on the exemption for double cab Utes in the Budget. I asked David Parker a couple of weeks ago and he said it was being looked at. Watch this space.
This comment hasn't aged well. After the backlash from the EV announcement I can't imagine Labour will be wanting to piss of any more middle-new-zealand voters with a change to the ute FBT exemption.
That's the trouble with the current 'me' culture. Far too many people happy to rort the tax system for their own totally selfish reasons, and not giving a toss about damaging the planet or harming the health of fellow Kiwis in the process. Read my first comment - it's about hearts and minds first.
Hi, this is an interesting read. One clarification. There are electric utes. My brother in law has a hybrid plug in Mitsubishi twin cab ute, which he runs entirely on electricity.
Nice piece but I think you are a little too harsh on the government. They know the obstacles as well as you but it's a bit early to say they don't intend to obey the Zero Carbon Act. Labour has stuck by fuel efficiency standards so far (although the current version looks weaker than the 2019 version). It is very difficult to unwind the effective subsidies given to the car-based transport system (NZ upgrade only increased these) so a slow unwind together with generous carrots seems the way to get started. Progressives may be calling for less car travel but with or without the measures in your article, most of the transport emissions reductions come from electrification. The "1% of GDP" thing is confirmed in similar net zero scenarios for the UK and US.
Looking forward to reading your submission to the CCC!
Since early this year the Government was urged to focus the vaccination rollout on sections of the population perceived to be at greater risk during the Covid pandemic, in particular Maori and Pasifika. South Auckland was often mentioned as an area at great risk, to itself, and to the country. The Government chose to remain steadfastly colourblind, with a one-size-fits-all approach that culminated on 1 September when vaccination became available to everyone aged 12 and above.
Now we are into a month of Level 4 lockdown in Auckland. Seven suburbs are deemed of concern, five clustered around Middlemore Hospital in South Auckland, and two outliers, Mt Eden and Massey. The fear is that one or more of these three areas may be harbouring pools of undetected Covid infection that account for the unlinked 'mystery' infections that have turned up at Middlemore Hospital.
Is it time to restrict the Level 4 lockdown only to these three areas? To place a cordon sanitaire around each of them, across which no one might pass without proof of vaccination and an on-the-spot saliva test? Within these areas community-staffed mobile vaccination buses should be patrolling every street, knocking on every door, inviting, begging, every person over 12 to be vaccinated.
Meanwhile the rest of Auckland, and the rest of New Zealand, could be freed from lockdown and get on with the increasingly difficult task of salvaging jobs, businesses, and the economy.
Here here,cheers again Bernard
"The current trajectory is for politicians to try to muddle through in the hope they won’t be held accountable for the failure in the future to meet the emissions targets, or the more awful prospect of increasing transport costs by stealth and trying to regulate its way to new places to live."
The can has been kicked down the road and off the cliff and no one can face it, hence our total lack of preparation for the unfolding collapse.
Canadian environmentalist William Rees brilliantly summarised our predicament "The Scientifically Necessary is Politically unfeasible, the Politically Feasible is Scientifically Irrelevant".
https://kevinhester.live/2019/09/05/collapse-the-only-realistic-scenario/
Great link Kevin! Sometimes we need to call bullshit on the politicians. And business leaders too.
Someone said 3 kinds of lies: chicken, bull and elephant copralite. The elephant variety is so embedded it is usually unseen or ignored. Call.it the degradation of liberal democracy by money or diversion. The churches and the left tied up in knots by non-class politics.
Now Bernard, surely the economic utility of public investment to switch to public transport,
of purpose driven, progressive & sustainable taxation,
of comprehensive public health, education, shelter and employment,
of proactive urban design,
of anti-trust regulation..
all this stuff was well-articulated in planning literature 35+years ago as neoliberalism "came out" with Reagan in 1980. There was a murmur of resistance on Mayday 1980 i DC by the Rainbow Coalition movement, but only one if its constituent communities flourished under the neoliberal reich. Even the Greens are tip-toeing around the rentier consensus or thru the tulips of identity politics. You are right, things are going to get interesting very fast. Great chat with Max. Just great.
Totally agree with your analysis Bernard - but I would add one other perspective. 48% of CO2 emissions come from materials we make from fossil fuels. Neither the Climate Change Commission Advice to Government or the Government has recognised this! This tends to suggest that this will also encourage leakage of emissions to other probably poorer economies. So although what you suggest is highly valid its contribution to reducing global atmospheric concentration of CO2 may not be as great as hoped for.
Cheers John. The leakages problem is real, but we still have to try. And I think those companies and countries that get ahead of the curve will reap the rewards from consumers, and avoid taxes from countries that are serious about. I think Australia, for example, is going to have a big problem selling stuff to the EU soon. Watch this space for carbon-linked tariffs from the EU and others. Even the UK. And then China...
So many things we need to do are currently politically unpalatable (ie. electoral suicide) So the vital thing to do is to have the vision, determination and wisdom to start from the other end: make the things we need to do politically acceptable, if not politically necessary. That requires both informative persuasion, and doing subtle things that, added together, change enough people's minds to make a difference. One that springs to mind is ignoring the motor trade lobbyists and legislating that all vehicles must permanently display a 'pollution' sticker next to the WoF, with a simple visual scale like we get on fridges when we buy them. Another would be forcing IRD to enforce the rules on the tax preferential treatment for double cab utes - everybody knows they are actually a massive tax rort with many 'company' utes used for the school run and boat ramp and some 'signage' so subtle or small as to be imperceptible. It would start to chip away at the desirability if more people had to pay the full cost. There are plenty more.....
Thanks Nigel. I think there'll be a crackdown on the exemption for double cab Utes in the Budget. I asked David Parker a couple of weeks ago and he said it was being looked at. Watch this space.
That's good news. However there still remains the issue of IRD actually enforcing the rules. Otherwise rule changes will have little effect.
This comment hasn't aged well. After the backlash from the EV announcement I can't imagine Labour will be wanting to piss of any more middle-new-zealand voters with a change to the ute FBT exemption.
That's the trouble with the current 'me' culture. Far too many people happy to rort the tax system for their own totally selfish reasons, and not giving a toss about damaging the planet or harming the health of fellow Kiwis in the process. Read my first comment - it's about hearts and minds first.
Hi, this is an interesting read. One clarification. There are electric utes. My brother in law has a hybrid plug in Mitsubishi twin cab ute, which he runs entirely on electricity.
Thanks Euan. Unfortunately, those hybrid plug ins are still way more expensive than diesel ones and I haven't seen a ute version, just the SUV. Nothing on the horizon I've seen for a double cab ute. Here's a bit more background. https://www.driven.co.nz/lifestyle/green/when-we-will-see-an-ev-ute-in-new-zealand/
Nice piece but I think you are a little too harsh on the government. They know the obstacles as well as you but it's a bit early to say they don't intend to obey the Zero Carbon Act. Labour has stuck by fuel efficiency standards so far (although the current version looks weaker than the 2019 version). It is very difficult to unwind the effective subsidies given to the car-based transport system (NZ upgrade only increased these) so a slow unwind together with generous carrots seems the way to get started. Progressives may be calling for less car travel but with or without the measures in your article, most of the transport emissions reductions come from electrification. The "1% of GDP" thing is confirmed in similar net zero scenarios for the UK and US.
Looking forward to reading your submission to the CCC!
Since early this year the Government was urged to focus the vaccination rollout on sections of the population perceived to be at greater risk during the Covid pandemic, in particular Maori and Pasifika. South Auckland was often mentioned as an area at great risk, to itself, and to the country. The Government chose to remain steadfastly colourblind, with a one-size-fits-all approach that culminated on 1 September when vaccination became available to everyone aged 12 and above.
Now we are into a month of Level 4 lockdown in Auckland. Seven suburbs are deemed of concern, five clustered around Middlemore Hospital in South Auckland, and two outliers, Mt Eden and Massey. The fear is that one or more of these three areas may be harbouring pools of undetected Covid infection that account for the unlinked 'mystery' infections that have turned up at Middlemore Hospital.
Is it time to restrict the Level 4 lockdown only to these three areas? To place a cordon sanitaire around each of them, across which no one might pass without proof of vaccination and an on-the-spot saliva test? Within these areas community-staffed mobile vaccination buses should be patrolling every street, knocking on every door, inviting, begging, every person over 12 to be vaccinated.
Meanwhile the rest of Auckland, and the rest of New Zealand, could be freed from lockdown and get on with the increasingly difficult task of salvaging jobs, businesses, and the economy.