The RBA hiked rates later & less than the RBNZ and NZ's new Govt is tightening fiscal policy dramatically, while Australia's Federal & State Govts are loosening; It's worsening a worker exodus from NZ
21 hrs ago·edited 21 hrs agoLiked by Bernard Hickey
This is a great overview of the reasons underlying The Great Exodus of Job Seekers to Australia. I fear we are returning to The Sugarbag Years (Tony Simpson) when the United and Reform Parties thought austerity was the way to ride out The Depression, with tragic consequences.
Would you consider opening this to the wider public, Bernard?
Significant that the United & Reform parties officially became the National party in 1936. Austerity has been a complete failure in the UK - does Willis really think she can do better in NZ?
Even assuming the Wright Family Foundation provide funding to some worthwhile causes (alongside some truly awful ones), the majority of their distributable profit has clearly always been a direct transfer from taxpayers. In that light, their autocratic charity seems like a horribly inefficient way to double-handle taxpayer dollars... And here was I, thinking that this government was "laser focused" on getting "bang for [our] buck"!?
It's a shame we, as a country, did not get ourselves organised to have govt pre-school education, funded in the same way as state education. If we move into the charter school model, (and this can happen quickly - England has 80% Academies for secondary) we will have even more taxpayer money going into private pockets, some of which may be overseas companies.
Susan, nothing is set in stone. We should follow the model of Finland, with one of the best education systems in the world which is wholly publicly owned - there are no private providers. We can nationalise/renationalise our early childhood education & drive our parasites like the Wright Family Foundation. We can deal to Seymour's charter schools the same way so that only the government provides free, compulsory & secular education for all, from ECE to tertiary level. In the existing state system we already have special character & full emersion Maori schools, so we have the successful precedent of different types of public schools. Seymour & his cronies don't give a monkey's about 'education choice' - they want a system where only the children of the wealthy receive an education.
Has anyone done a breakdown of those leaving for Australia, especially a split between NZ born and overseas born? Are some of the overseas born using NZ citizenship as a back door into Australia? Or not as Ozzy citizenship may be just as easily obtained.
after becoming the government the current government rapidly enacted legislation that allows residential rental property owners (investors and speculators) to deduct their mortgage interest from their income before tax is calculated/payable. this gives residential rental property owners a colossal financial advantage over the people who are wanting to buy a dwelling for themself (and family) and consequently shut a large number of people out of being able to buy a dwelling for themself (and family). this has mightily pissed off a large number of hard working New Zealanders and is one of the causes such a large number of New Zealanders are leaving New Zealand (eg a niece and a nephew of mine).
Just seen an enquiry on kiwi born Vs non born kiwis exodus in the commens section. Certainly a thing I thought of. Overseas born kiwi here but husband is Australian so the process to live in Australia permanently was the same as New Zealand. However, we chose to live in NZ for 10 years before making the shift. What we got to understand is that "once a migrant, always a migrant" mentality so it's not so much as a "backdoor mentality" but one considering better options as they come along because of "no strings attached". I find the social and opportunities component of it is what drives the exodus of both old and new kiwis rather than a very long migration strategy. Citizenship in NZ takes 5 years from residence and straight to residence visas are unusual. It took me 9 years to become a kiwi citizen going the partner route which was the easiest at the time and I probably had the most efficient service by MBIE with processing times 3 months the longest. It's much harder/longer for students or those on ordinary work visas. I find part of the "backdoor entry theory" a bit of a myth that doesn't account for the complexity in migratory policy in NZ. I know people I met 10 years ago that are still waiting on Residence and have been on a work visa ping pong. Also, during COVID (2021) a whole bunch of work visa holders (and eligible family) were invited to apply for residence irregadless of their then long-term commitment to NZ, often these workers in "less qualified" jobs (deemed essential during pandemic times, and Indeed they often are) that may be finding it hard to get by in the current landscape. This will need to be considered in the short term whilst recognising lengthy processing times by MBIE. In the next 2-3 years we could see another exodus partly consistent of those people should things not improve in Aotearoa. Because why not? Migrating is stressful but an opportunity. In absence of better opportunities, what else would keep migrants in NZ?
To me the promise to return better off is tempting and there's not a day I don't miss Aotearoa and its people. Hence I'm subscribed. Thank you, Bernard and team for your updates.
This is a great overview of the reasons underlying The Great Exodus of Job Seekers to Australia. I fear we are returning to The Sugarbag Years (Tony Simpson) when the United and Reform Parties thought austerity was the way to ride out The Depression, with tragic consequences.
Would you consider opening this to the wider public, Bernard?
Significant that the United & Reform parties officially became the National party in 1936. Austerity has been a complete failure in the UK - does Willis really think she can do better in NZ?
I hate to think how long and how much it will take to come out of the deep freeze the economy is now going into.
A really helpful, user friendly, explanation of the job market and the economies of Aotearoa and our Aussi nieghbours. Thanks Bernard.
Just a bit worried about your voice (covid vocals). Take it easy..better here in Australia.. x
Even assuming the Wright Family Foundation provide funding to some worthwhile causes (alongside some truly awful ones), the majority of their distributable profit has clearly always been a direct transfer from taxpayers. In that light, their autocratic charity seems like a horribly inefficient way to double-handle taxpayer dollars... And here was I, thinking that this government was "laser focused" on getting "bang for [our] buck"!?
Interesting that the Wright Family Foundation is the funder of 'The Platform', featuring reactionary hacks like Shaun Plunkett & Michael Laws.
It's a shame we, as a country, did not get ourselves organised to have govt pre-school education, funded in the same way as state education. If we move into the charter school model, (and this can happen quickly - England has 80% Academies for secondary) we will have even more taxpayer money going into private pockets, some of which may be overseas companies.
Susan, nothing is set in stone. We should follow the model of Finland, with one of the best education systems in the world which is wholly publicly owned - there are no private providers. We can nationalise/renationalise our early childhood education & drive our parasites like the Wright Family Foundation. We can deal to Seymour's charter schools the same way so that only the government provides free, compulsory & secular education for all, from ECE to tertiary level. In the existing state system we already have special character & full emersion Maori schools, so we have the successful precedent of different types of public schools. Seymour & his cronies don't give a monkey's about 'education choice' - they want a system where only the children of the wealthy receive an education.
Thankyou for a clear, well put together overview, political parties especially Labour, need to see this.
Thanks for all the fantastic graphs, Bernard. A picture paints a 1000 words, so please keep them coming.
Some really scary stats in there too, that seem to correlate to the change in government and austerity in a recession. Crazy thinking.
Also, so sorry for your recent lose, Bernard and family. Please take more time off, if you need it.
Thanks Chris (long term subscriber)
Has anyone done a breakdown of those leaving for Australia, especially a split between NZ born and overseas born? Are some of the overseas born using NZ citizenship as a back door into Australia? Or not as Ozzy citizenship may be just as easily obtained.
Very interesting - I wonder too if the use of AI to do job applications has contributed to the rapid increase in applications per job.
after becoming the government the current government rapidly enacted legislation that allows residential rental property owners (investors and speculators) to deduct their mortgage interest from their income before tax is calculated/payable. this gives residential rental property owners a colossal financial advantage over the people who are wanting to buy a dwelling for themself (and family) and consequently shut a large number of people out of being able to buy a dwelling for themself (and family). this has mightily pissed off a large number of hard working New Zealanders and is one of the causes such a large number of New Zealanders are leaving New Zealand (eg a niece and a nephew of mine).
Oh help! and if you're stuck without a job you have to sign up for the trauma of Social Welfare's military style hoop jumping. It's a nightmare.
Ah, so it's not just the weather...
Just seen an enquiry on kiwi born Vs non born kiwis exodus in the commens section. Certainly a thing I thought of. Overseas born kiwi here but husband is Australian so the process to live in Australia permanently was the same as New Zealand. However, we chose to live in NZ for 10 years before making the shift. What we got to understand is that "once a migrant, always a migrant" mentality so it's not so much as a "backdoor mentality" but one considering better options as they come along because of "no strings attached". I find the social and opportunities component of it is what drives the exodus of both old and new kiwis rather than a very long migration strategy. Citizenship in NZ takes 5 years from residence and straight to residence visas are unusual. It took me 9 years to become a kiwi citizen going the partner route which was the easiest at the time and I probably had the most efficient service by MBIE with processing times 3 months the longest. It's much harder/longer for students or those on ordinary work visas. I find part of the "backdoor entry theory" a bit of a myth that doesn't account for the complexity in migratory policy in NZ. I know people I met 10 years ago that are still waiting on Residence and have been on a work visa ping pong. Also, during COVID (2021) a whole bunch of work visa holders (and eligible family) were invited to apply for residence irregadless of their then long-term commitment to NZ, often these workers in "less qualified" jobs (deemed essential during pandemic times, and Indeed they often are) that may be finding it hard to get by in the current landscape. This will need to be considered in the short term whilst recognising lengthy processing times by MBIE. In the next 2-3 years we could see another exodus partly consistent of those people should things not improve in Aotearoa. Because why not? Migrating is stressful but an opportunity. In absence of better opportunities, what else would keep migrants in NZ?
To me the promise to return better off is tempting and there's not a day I don't miss Aotearoa and its people. Hence I'm subscribed. Thank you, Bernard and team for your updates.
In Melbourne. Monday night - big family restaurant Dandenong (outer suburb) humming, even with mains A$35, desserts A$20. No recession vibes.