Global stocks, bonds hammered overnight on fears Fed could hike 100 bps this week; Bitcoin crashes 20% after Celcius blocks withdrawals; Binance cites 'blocked transaction'; UN Human Rights chief goes
Interesting thoughts for next years cabinet reshuffle, Bernard, including the PM potentially stepping away. Why is Grant Robertson the heir apparent though? I have respect for him as my local MP, mixed thoughts as Minister of Finance, but I don't think he has the PM factor to him. I feel like someone like Chris Hipkins, who is respected across the political spectrum for his talent and hard work, would be a better fit?
Really don't appreciate glib, facetious comments about the slaughter and maiming of many, many thousands of people - or being primarily concerned about the economic fallout for us.
So the elite and big players which can afford them get good returns on bonds and the rest of us get the proverbial as usual with higher costs for “living”. It’s not a sustainable system for the majority is it?
Justice is a prominent portfolio. Kiri Allan also got an Associate Finance role which should give her some more experience with how the levers get pulled. Seems like the PM thinks she's quite capable and giving her experience to take on more later!
Jun 14, 2022·edited Jun 14, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey
It feels like the base case scenario is now stagflation. All of the analysts I follow, that correctly saw the current inflation issues more than a year ago, all see inflation staying outside the target band for years - and it’s hard to see how it will quickly dissipate with deeply negative real rates.
Most likely scenario now seems to be we will see real economic contraction before inflation is under control.
I think people were too willing to believe central bankers predictions, such as “transitory” inflation, or inflation already peaking. People forget central bankers talk about what they WANT to happen in an attempt to steer markets to their desired outcome. Unfortunately that tactic only goes so far when they have pumped markets with trillions of dollars
NSW is considering swapping (existing) stamp duty for land tax (it's written the other way around in the newsletter)
Interesting thoughts for next years cabinet reshuffle, Bernard, including the PM potentially stepping away. Why is Grant Robertson the heir apparent though? I have respect for him as my local MP, mixed thoughts as Minister of Finance, but I don't think he has the PM factor to him. I feel like someone like Chris Hipkins, who is respected across the political spectrum for his talent and hard work, would be a better fit?
Really don't appreciate glib, facetious comments about the slaughter and maiming of many, many thousands of people - or being primarily concerned about the economic fallout for us.
So the elite and big players which can afford them get good returns on bonds and the rest of us get the proverbial as usual with higher costs for “living”. It’s not a sustainable system for the majority is it?
Justice is a prominent portfolio. Kiri Allan also got an Associate Finance role which should give her some more experience with how the levers get pulled. Seems like the PM thinks she's quite capable and giving her experience to take on more later!
It feels like the base case scenario is now stagflation. All of the analysts I follow, that correctly saw the current inflation issues more than a year ago, all see inflation staying outside the target band for years - and it’s hard to see how it will quickly dissipate with deeply negative real rates.
Most likely scenario now seems to be we will see real economic contraction before inflation is under control.
I think people were too willing to believe central bankers predictions, such as “transitory” inflation, or inflation already peaking. People forget central bankers talk about what they WANT to happen in an attempt to steer markets to their desired outcome. Unfortunately that tactic only goes so far when they have pumped markets with trillions of dollars