Global stocks, bonds hammered overnight on fears Fed could hike 100 bps this week; Bitcoin crashes 20% after Celcius blocks withdrawals; Binance cites 'blocked transaction'; UN Human Rights chief goes
Interesting thoughts for next years cabinet reshuffle, Bernard, including the PM potentially stepping away. Why is Grant Robertson the heir apparent though? I have respect for him as my local MP, mixed thoughts as Minister of Finance, but I don't think he has the PM factor to him. I feel like someone like Chris Hipkins, who is respected across the political spectrum for his talent and hard work, would be a better fit?
If it's the PM standing down then it has to be Grant Robertson to succeed her if he accepts. Otherwise it is the stoush of a succession battle which can only hurt the party's election chances.
Or as Bernard would describe it: the succession has to performative.
Robertson has the respect of the caucus and is joined at the hip (mostly) with Ardern. He's head and shoulders above the rest if there was to be a transition.
Really don't appreciate glib, facetious comments about the slaughter and maiming of many, many thousands of people - or being primarily concerned about the economic fallout for us.
So the elite and big players which can afford them get good returns on bonds and the rest of us get the proverbial as usual with higher costs for “living”. It’s not a sustainable system for the majority is it?
Also ostensibly from our tax which they can also avoid or pay little to none of while using our infrastructure and public services throughout their lives and are now the next thing for them to exploit by “investing” in. Round and round it goes and for the majority it’s like living in a tornado sucking everything we have up and away.
Anyone can buy bonds. You probably hold them indirectly via Kiwisaver? You can purchase them in minimum amounts of $250 (?) via smartshares. My niece (22yrs) on a salary of $60k saves $500 each month via ETFs. I think she could save more but we disagree on what is essential vs wastage.
Bond holders should indeed be publicly available and publicly notified as to how much are held if they insist on spinning our collective worth in this way. Especially when community and other assets already owned are flogged off and then resold to the original owners. Just a bizarre thing to do that just ensured assets are degraded, value for tax paid lost and the ticket clipped in staggering amounts on the way through. How many times will people tolerate paying for the thing they already collectively or individually own including their rights by law is the best horror psy op show in town.😂
Justice is a prominent portfolio. Kiri Allan also got an Associate Finance role which should give her some more experience with how the levers get pulled. Seems like the PM thinks she's quite capable and giving her experience to take on more later!
Jun 14, 2022·edited Jun 14, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey
It feels like the base case scenario is now stagflation. All of the analysts I follow, that correctly saw the current inflation issues more than a year ago, all see inflation staying outside the target band for years - and it’s hard to see how it will quickly dissipate with deeply negative real rates.
Most likely scenario now seems to be we will see real economic contraction before inflation is under control.
I think people were too willing to believe central bankers predictions, such as “transitory” inflation, or inflation already peaking. People forget central bankers talk about what they WANT to happen in an attempt to steer markets to their desired outcome. Unfortunately that tactic only goes so far when they have pumped markets with trillions of dollars
Who are you following please? I don't think anyone really knows how things will shape up, since it's all driven by complex, often competing and intertwined sentiment.
Triple-whammy for those who missed out on the asset owners paradise of the last decade & now face prospect of rampant, extended market volatility, house price craziness and cost of living crises.
NSW is considering swapping (existing) stamp duty for land tax (it's written the other way around in the newsletter)
Thanks Tim. I've clarified that in the correction above. Many thanks.
Interesting thoughts for next years cabinet reshuffle, Bernard, including the PM potentially stepping away. Why is Grant Robertson the heir apparent though? I have respect for him as my local MP, mixed thoughts as Minister of Finance, but I don't think he has the PM factor to him. I feel like someone like Chris Hipkins, who is respected across the political spectrum for his talent and hard work, would be a better fit?
Hi Rory
If it's the PM standing down then it has to be Grant Robertson to succeed her if he accepts. Otherwise it is the stoush of a succession battle which can only hurt the party's election chances.
Or as Bernard would describe it: the succession has to performative.
Robertson has the respect of the caucus and is joined at the hip (mostly) with Ardern. He's head and shoulders above the rest if there was to be a transition.
Really don't appreciate glib, facetious comments about the slaughter and maiming of many, many thousands of people - or being primarily concerned about the economic fallout for us.
So the elite and big players which can afford them get good returns on bonds and the rest of us get the proverbial as usual with higher costs for “living”. It’s not a sustainable system for the majority is it?
Also ostensibly from our tax which they can also avoid or pay little to none of while using our infrastructure and public services throughout their lives and are now the next thing for them to exploit by “investing” in. Round and round it goes and for the majority it’s like living in a tornado sucking everything we have up and away.
Anyone can buy bonds. You probably hold them indirectly via Kiwisaver? You can purchase them in minimum amounts of $250 (?) via smartshares. My niece (22yrs) on a salary of $60k saves $500 each month via ETFs. I think she could save more but we disagree on what is essential vs wastage.
Bond holders should indeed be publicly available and publicly notified as to how much are held if they insist on spinning our collective worth in this way. Especially when community and other assets already owned are flogged off and then resold to the original owners. Just a bizarre thing to do that just ensured assets are degraded, value for tax paid lost and the ticket clipped in staggering amounts on the way through. How many times will people tolerate paying for the thing they already collectively or individually own including their rights by law is the best horror psy op show in town.😂
Justice is a prominent portfolio. Kiri Allan also got an Associate Finance role which should give her some more experience with how the levers get pulled. Seems like the PM thinks she's quite capable and giving her experience to take on more later!
It feels like the base case scenario is now stagflation. All of the analysts I follow, that correctly saw the current inflation issues more than a year ago, all see inflation staying outside the target band for years - and it’s hard to see how it will quickly dissipate with deeply negative real rates.
Most likely scenario now seems to be we will see real economic contraction before inflation is under control.
I think people were too willing to believe central bankers predictions, such as “transitory” inflation, or inflation already peaking. People forget central bankers talk about what they WANT to happen in an attempt to steer markets to their desired outcome. Unfortunately that tactic only goes so far when they have pumped markets with trillions of dollars
Who are you following please? I don't think anyone really knows how things will shape up, since it's all driven by complex, often competing and intertwined sentiment.
Triple-whammy for those who missed out on the asset owners paradise of the last decade & now face prospect of rampant, extended market volatility, house price craziness and cost of living crises.