Including the final hoon of 2022 with co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale, along with special guests Robert Patman, Josie Pagani & Rod Oram on a big year, plus a look ahead to 2023
I support you doing deeper dives as I reflect that you often are a conversation starter on issues in NZ e.g. Auckland Golf Courses; the 'squeezed middle' will actually be fine.
I value the news summaries you do, but I think more of your thought pieces will be crucial leading up to next year's election given what is at stake.
The reductive yes/no vote questions you've posed don't quite work for me - too stark in the quest for a simple proposition.
My query is really about whether you will end up leaving journalism behind and become (just) another lobby for a set of preferred policies or even an actual politician. All power to you if you want to step up like that. But that vision isn't why I'm participating in the current Kākā project.
More deep dives might be useful (but keeping in mind your Spinoff podcast is generally one of those). I tend to think, though, that the daily work you do on the Kākā helps people interpret broader signals and trends anyway so perhaps augment that work with a monthly dive deeper into some aspect of what's topical.
Best wishes for the holiday season after prodigious output this year. (Maybe the innovation for 2023 is to grow the team?)
Broadly in agreement so go for it. But one question: would this diminish your ability to comment forensically during the election debates? Short term, keeping Labour and National honest and pointing out the consequences of whatever they are proposing is important. I think you have an authoritative voice which might just influence the election - not perhaps who wins but what they promise.
Dec 19, 2022·edited Dec 19, 2022Liked by Bernard Hickey
I have to copy and paste as somebody called 'Gnarly Dude' from Britain somewhere, wrote this in the comments of believe it or not, an astrology site I check out from time to time. I kept thinking of you Bernard, as i read it .
He writes:
"It took me a long time to realise the problem with the housing market is that it IS our economy. Or at least a large section of it. There is a continuous cycle of DIY for new bathrooms, kitchens, sofas, double-glazing, conservatories going on. There is all the mortgaging, insurance and financial loans that go with these.
A good portion of housing stock in university towns (100+) is accommodating somewhere 10–20,000 students so 1-2 million people. Students are taking out maintenance loans to pay the rents. The people owning the properties are employing property management services and so on; and the banks are reaping the mortgage iinterest.
The education system itself is creating debt among students that will be paid back with interest. Even if those loans are wiped out in 30 years time, the money has already gone into the current economy. At the other end, care homes for the elderly are funded by the sale of houses. Or there can be a nice shot of inheritance tax.
Fundamentally the Government (of whichever party) has a vested interest in keeping the housing market moving. there is an illusion of growth and prosperity within the country as homeowners see their property value increasing. Every month we get the grand, headline catching news of how house prices have grown. This is why government is always coming up with new help-to-buy schemes or floating the idea of 30-40 year mortgages to keep people borrowing.
The bigger question for me is will we move past an economy based on debt? It’s not just houses. It’s buying a new car. Going to the dentist, opticians or taking your pet to the vet. If you can’t afford it, they’re encouraging you to get these things on credit A related note is how many adverts you see for gambling or how many prize-money competiitions you see on radio and TV."
Back to us here, the Kaka. I agree with Rory about the importance of your work especially in pushing open discussion to move away from this housonomy to using money for more productive purposes. Housing the population should be easy. We're not looking to create ancient rock castles. What is wrong with us? I suspect what is wrong might be words, words, words.
I'd love to read more from you about whether a focus on higher rates of homeownership, versus a more broad focus on "affordable housing " (i.e. lower cost / better security renting) is the best route for NZ. And in choosing which path, what are the steps to get there.
I enjoyed reading what Michael Ream wrote and being provoked again to want to dream big for the "sacred social good" that is a homeownership society. Is this the right path to return to, is it possible to get there? Or is a more modest focus on affordable, secure, quality rental housing a better goal?
Can we do both?
"If home ownership is deemed a sacred social good, we must go back to the future and directly support owner occupants, not just first-home buyers, through subsidised government loans floated at, or near, the Official Cash Rate. Loans should be affordably pegged to borrower income, to a maximum of three times the income. Ideally, that same income multiplier would serve as a threshold for lender recourse in case of default and would apply to all mortgages. Banks may bleat, but society would heal."
1 - We can’t have a higher debt to gdp than Aussie so 60% is too high.
2 - your policy goals/election manifesto needs to include a look at why increased spending has failed to drive improved outcomes in education/health/infrastructure. More money isn’t the whole answer if how it is being spent is not being addressed. Your spinoff colleague Toby Manhire has highlighted the capture of the bureaucratic state.
More money, higher taxes may be tolerable and would only be sustainable if delivery of better outcomes can be assured.
3 - Thus the need for an independent infrastructure body that operates independently from govt with a fixed budget of 8% of the tax take to complete significant infrastructure projects free from the interference of the political cycle with an accountable board who could expect to be sacked if projects were over budget, late or substandard. They could engage the long term engineering/specialist skills required knowing there would be a 25 year pipe line of work to complete.
4 - parliament would be required to approve the Top 10 projects of national significance by 2/3 majority every 5 years or so and exempt the projects from planning challenges/enviro court etc and get them built!
Hats off to you for your early call that Labour would capitulate on immigration. Settings are now looser than 2017. Think of all the shameful games played during covid/refusal to set a planning range/the rebalance/reset/rethink/refudge to abandon it all in the space of 6 months.
Nothing like conviction politicians!
Hat stays firmly on for your team transitory call. You have 12 months before you need to commit to walking through Welly ringing a bell declaring inflation to be structural and permanent.
Love your work Bernard. It gives me hope, knowing that there are people out there doing their bit to educate and bring forward ideas from a place of selflessness. I would love to see an Aotearoa that you talk about each day i.e. affordable housing, and action on climate change. I’m glad to see your name out there more and more. People are listening.
Can we please get your review of the cause of inflation globally, due largely in part to China locking down up to 65% GDP to fight covid and what the affects are likely following their rules easing now they have let C19 in.
Not a comment on the podcast but see the link - Ireland is moving ahead re reducing climate emissions and could cut cattle numbers by 10%. If the proposed EU carbon border tax is extended to agriculture, NZ dairy products could be in the firing line
Car numbers and cattle herds could be cut in new Climate Action Plan
Re the Kaka project, please do, Bernard! Challenges to orthodoxy and coherent genuine alternatives are not out there for debate, so they are not likely to get debated.
Ahhh love the deep dives but you’re also such a strong commenter on the news I’d hate to miss your voice there!! I’ll be looking for any deep dives / news around the global and local energy (poverty) crisis, climate & ecosystem collapse and how badly a NAct coalition will screw all of these issues up! Meri Kirihimete
Kia ora, Bernard; FYI android users can't do polls or see some graphics on the app; I've turned off emails to try to do everything through the app; is there a work-around or link you could use for us?
Hi Bernard
I support you doing deeper dives as I reflect that you often are a conversation starter on issues in NZ e.g. Auckland Golf Courses; the 'squeezed middle' will actually be fine.
I value the news summaries you do, but I think more of your thought pieces will be crucial leading up to next year's election given what is at stake.
Kia ora Bernard
The reductive yes/no vote questions you've posed don't quite work for me - too stark in the quest for a simple proposition.
My query is really about whether you will end up leaving journalism behind and become (just) another lobby for a set of preferred policies or even an actual politician. All power to you if you want to step up like that. But that vision isn't why I'm participating in the current Kākā project.
More deep dives might be useful (but keeping in mind your Spinoff podcast is generally one of those). I tend to think, though, that the daily work you do on the Kākā helps people interpret broader signals and trends anyway so perhaps augment that work with a monthly dive deeper into some aspect of what's topical.
Best wishes for the holiday season after prodigious output this year. (Maybe the innovation for 2023 is to grow the team?)
Broadly in agreement so go for it. But one question: would this diminish your ability to comment forensically during the election debates? Short term, keeping Labour and National honest and pointing out the consequences of whatever they are proposing is important. I think you have an authoritative voice which might just influence the election - not perhaps who wins but what they promise.
I have to copy and paste as somebody called 'Gnarly Dude' from Britain somewhere, wrote this in the comments of believe it or not, an astrology site I check out from time to time. I kept thinking of you Bernard, as i read it .
He writes:
"It took me a long time to realise the problem with the housing market is that it IS our economy. Or at least a large section of it. There is a continuous cycle of DIY for new bathrooms, kitchens, sofas, double-glazing, conservatories going on. There is all the mortgaging, insurance and financial loans that go with these.
A good portion of housing stock in university towns (100+) is accommodating somewhere 10–20,000 students so 1-2 million people. Students are taking out maintenance loans to pay the rents. The people owning the properties are employing property management services and so on; and the banks are reaping the mortgage iinterest.
The education system itself is creating debt among students that will be paid back with interest. Even if those loans are wiped out in 30 years time, the money has already gone into the current economy. At the other end, care homes for the elderly are funded by the sale of houses. Or there can be a nice shot of inheritance tax.
Fundamentally the Government (of whichever party) has a vested interest in keeping the housing market moving. there is an illusion of growth and prosperity within the country as homeowners see their property value increasing. Every month we get the grand, headline catching news of how house prices have grown. This is why government is always coming up with new help-to-buy schemes or floating the idea of 30-40 year mortgages to keep people borrowing.
The bigger question for me is will we move past an economy based on debt? It’s not just houses. It’s buying a new car. Going to the dentist, opticians or taking your pet to the vet. If you can’t afford it, they’re encouraging you to get these things on credit A related note is how many adverts you see for gambling or how many prize-money competiitions you see on radio and TV."
Back to us here, the Kaka. I agree with Rory about the importance of your work especially in pushing open discussion to move away from this housonomy to using money for more productive purposes. Housing the population should be easy. We're not looking to create ancient rock castles. What is wrong with us? I suspect what is wrong might be words, words, words.
I'd love to read more from you about whether a focus on higher rates of homeownership, versus a more broad focus on "affordable housing " (i.e. lower cost / better security renting) is the best route for NZ. And in choosing which path, what are the steps to get there.
I enjoyed reading what Michael Ream wrote and being provoked again to want to dream big for the "sacred social good" that is a homeownership society. Is this the right path to return to, is it possible to get there? Or is a more modest focus on affordable, secure, quality rental housing a better goal?
Can we do both?
"If home ownership is deemed a sacred social good, we must go back to the future and directly support owner occupants, not just first-home buyers, through subsidised government loans floated at, or near, the Official Cash Rate. Loans should be affordably pegged to borrower income, to a maximum of three times the income. Ideally, that same income multiplier would serve as a threshold for lender recourse in case of default and would apply to all mortgages. Banks may bleat, but society would heal."
https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2022/05/16/taking-issue-housing-crisis-ingenio.html
1 - We can’t have a higher debt to gdp than Aussie so 60% is too high.
2 - your policy goals/election manifesto needs to include a look at why increased spending has failed to drive improved outcomes in education/health/infrastructure. More money isn’t the whole answer if how it is being spent is not being addressed. Your spinoff colleague Toby Manhire has highlighted the capture of the bureaucratic state.
More money, higher taxes may be tolerable and would only be sustainable if delivery of better outcomes can be assured.
3 - Thus the need for an independent infrastructure body that operates independently from govt with a fixed budget of 8% of the tax take to complete significant infrastructure projects free from the interference of the political cycle with an accountable board who could expect to be sacked if projects were over budget, late or substandard. They could engage the long term engineering/specialist skills required knowing there would be a 25 year pipe line of work to complete.
4 - parliament would be required to approve the Top 10 projects of national significance by 2/3 majority every 5 years or so and exempt the projects from planning challenges/enviro court etc and get them built!
Hats off to you for your early call that Labour would capitulate on immigration. Settings are now looser than 2017. Think of all the shameful games played during covid/refusal to set a planning range/the rebalance/reset/rethink/refudge to abandon it all in the space of 6 months.
Nothing like conviction politicians!
Hat stays firmly on for your team transitory call. You have 12 months before you need to commit to walking through Welly ringing a bell declaring inflation to be structural and permanent.
Full steam ahead with the Kaka Project please.
Precisely the discussion topics that are urgently needed. Well, the reforms that are urgently needed in fact, but widespread discussion a good start.
Listening to your broadcast today was great fun, fast & full of ideas on how to get a better world.Might require a 2nd listen.
A deep dive into how NZ might assist all children & young persons to have better equality of life choices in 2023 would make my heart sing.
Thanks to all on broadcast today.
I’d like work done on how we can pivot from a consumption defined economy to one which focussed on lived quality
Love your work Bernard. It gives me hope, knowing that there are people out there doing their bit to educate and bring forward ideas from a place of selflessness. I would love to see an Aotearoa that you talk about each day i.e. affordable housing, and action on climate change. I’m glad to see your name out there more and more. People are listening.
Hi Bernard
Can we please get your review of the cause of inflation globally, due largely in part to China locking down up to 65% GDP to fight covid and what the affects are likely following their rules easing now they have let C19 in.
Not a comment on the podcast but see the link - Ireland is moving ahead re reducing climate emissions and could cut cattle numbers by 10%. If the proposed EU carbon border tax is extended to agriculture, NZ dairy products could be in the firing line
Car numbers and cattle herds could be cut in new Climate Action Plan
https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2022/12/19/car-numbers-and-cattle-herds-could-be-cut-in-new-climate-action-plan/
Re the Kaka project, please do, Bernard! Challenges to orthodoxy and coherent genuine alternatives are not out there for debate, so they are not likely to get debated.
Ahhh love the deep dives but you’re also such a strong commenter on the news I’d hate to miss your voice there!! I’ll be looking for any deep dives / news around the global and local energy (poverty) crisis, climate & ecosystem collapse and how badly a NAct coalition will screw all of these issues up! Meri Kirihimete
Kia ora, Bernard; FYI android users can't do polls or see some graphics on the app; I've turned off emails to try to do everything through the app; is there a work-around or link you could use for us?
I like the current format but voted yes, can we have both ?