TLDR & TLDL: This is my weekly wrapup of the week’s key news from Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy for all subscribers, both free and paid, including a podcast of my Friday afternoon live video ‘hoon’ with Peter Bale.
This week we took a lap around the week's events in geo-politics, plus:
the morphing of our Covid-19 vaccination, elimination and potential reopening strategies,
the Reserve Bank’s tightening of LVR rules from November 1,
the changing outlooks for interest rates here and overseas,
the risks posed by a potential Evergrande collapse in China, and,
the potential for a Global Financial Crisis in late October if the US Government defaults on its debt as Evergrande collapses.
This is the weekly summary and sampler for free subscribers of the more indepth work we’ve done through the week, which is available daily for full paid subscribers. We started offering paid subscriptions last Tuesday and I’ve been surprised and humbled by the take-up of the one-week introductory offer for a half-priced annual subscription priced at $95 per year. The normal full price is $190/year and $19/month.
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Right. On with the show in the podcast above, and my summary of the key news of the week below, my seven numbers for the last seven days, my weekend reads, and a couple of fun things.
Auckland’s tougher level three
Cabinet decided on Monday to go ahead with the foreshadowed move for Auckland down from level four restrictions to level three restrictions for two weeks until the evening of October 5. But it wasn’t made crystal clear clear in the news conferences or any of the official announcements that meant the incredibly strict level four rules for travelling outside of Auckland would remain in place during level three.
I’ve checked the transcript and the announcement from the Ministry and there was nothing about this very big caveat in the formal opening statements or documents from the Ministry. It was only obliquely mentioned by PM Jacinda Ardern after a question in the news conference. Here’s the only mention (bolding mine):
“The second thing I’d say is that the reasons for travel essentially remain in place from the 4 environment for the 3 environment. So we are not expecting a big change in the way that that boundary looks and feels. There is still no regional travel, you still have to have permission from MBIE to travel for essential work, you still have to be tested on a seven-day rotation, and if you’re travelling for an exempted personal reason, you must have a test 72 hours before—within 72 hours of travel unless you have an emergency exemption from the Ministry of Health.” Jacinda Ardern in the 4pm livestreamed Beehive news conference on Monday.
That meant hundreds of people who had expected to be able to leave Auckland in a ‘one-way’ direction to move into new homes and jobs up and down the country were blocked. They were initially told they could go, but were then blocked. Mayhem ensued. Here’s useful reports on that from TVNZ’s Katie Bradford on that here and here.
Deputy PM Grant Robertson acknowledged the poor communications on the border restrictions issue in the Friday news conference at the Beehive at 1pm. He said Cabinet would considering relaxing those one-way movement rules somewhat in tomorrow’s meeting and the changes would be implemented as soon as possible.
“If (the incorrect emails to one-way movers) that has occurred, I’m sorry for that. The position was clear that we are continuing to adopt the level four settings (at the internal border). It’s not so much the settings: it’s the exemptions and the way in which exemptions get granted. That’s the process that we’re going to have another look at.” Grant Robertson in Friday’s 1pm Beehive news conference.
(FYI the links below take you to paid subscriber-only content at The Kaka)
First home buyers hit hardest in LVR move
The Reserve Bank confirmed it would halve the speed limit for high LVR lending from November 1, which was a month later than originally planned, but which will still hammer first home buyers hardest.
Vaccine passports are coming, along with mandate pressure
PM Jacinda Ardern is talking up the prospect of a voluntary vaccine passport that retailers, hospitality operators, airlines and other constrained and high touch environments could use to operate their own vaccination mandates.
But employers want more aircover from the Government, which is not keen. Riots in Melbourne this week showed why compulsion is difficult.
A hawk turns into a heron
Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby published a speech on Tuesday indicating the Reserve Bank is unlikely to deliver a 50 basis point hike on October 4. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve signalled it might announce a tapering of bond buying in November and potentially start hiking rates late next year or early in 2023. The central bank of Norway became the first developed world bank to hike rates on Friday night, beating New Zealand to the punch.
The links above take you to the Dawn Choruses put out daily only to paying subscribers.
A reminder: Click here to get the introductory offer and you’ll start getting the exclusive emails from tomorrow morning. But don’t muck around because it’s only an introductory offer. It expires on Tuesday. Buying an annual subscription helps make my journalism financially sustainable and I’m enjoying the discussion with full subscribers in the comment streams under each article. Subscribe here and now.
Seven numbers for seven days
90% - The first-dose vaccination threshold the Government has indicated it wants to see Auckland at by next Monday (October 4), when it decides whether to take Auckland down to level 2, which in theory may allow the rest of the country to go down to level 1. Auckland’s rate just got over 80% on Friday.
7,000 - The number of deaths modelled by Shaun Hendy’s group if Auckland was only 80% vaccinated.
280,000 - The number of workers in Auckland who went back to work under level three restrictions this week.
1.4m - The number of apartments Evergrande has presold for US$200b to buyers across China. It failed to make a bond payment on Friday and now has 30 days to rectify the situation.
15,503 - The number of real estate agents now in New Zealand, which is now more than the 12,250 listings now on RealEstate.co.nz.
$2.75b - The amount paid to over 680,000 businesses in wage subsidies and resurgence payments since the lockdowns started on August 17.
My weekend reads
Some fun things
Ka kite ano
Bernard
PS: Final reminder. Click here to get the introductory offer and you’ll start getting the exclusive emails from tomorrow morning. But it’s only an introductory offer and expires on Tuesday.
The week that was for the week's end