The hoon for the week that was to April 15

McAnulty is hopeful about Labour’s tweaks to a divisive policy, saying: "I think we've nailed it. Honestly, there's a balance to strike here." File photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty Images

TLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and Aotearoa’s political economy covered on The Kākā for paying subscribers included:

• Treasury estimating the Government could have to spend from $3 billion to $24 billion buying carbon credits overseas to meet our Paris climate obligations, depending on the scale of our failure to reduce emissions enough and carbon prices; Tuesday’s email

• The Government loosening migration settings dramatically in a last-minute attempt to stop a systemic health system crisis turning into a catastrophe over the winter; Wednesday’s email

• The Government turning Three Waters into 10 Waters, extending co-governance and balance sheet separation in a way that gives Councils a bit more say, but takes $1.5 billion in ‘better off’ compensation off them; Thursday’s morning email and a Three Waters special in the afternoon; plus,

• The Government allowing Auckland City to delay the implementation of housing densification rules by a year because of bad weather. Friday’s email

Here’s our Notes launch special offer that ends later today.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host

Peter Bale

and special guests:

• Robert Patmanfrom the University of Otago from 5.10 pm to 5.30 pm or so on China practicing a Taiwan blockade, Emmanuel Macron’s China controversial comments, NZ getting closer to NATO and the Pentagon leaks;

• Rebecca Peer, a climate engineering researcher from the University of Canterbury, from 5.30 pm to 5.40 pm on the Climate Commission’s advice to the Government to actually reduce emissions and Treasury’s estimate of a $3-24b climate liability;

• BusinessDesk-$$$ columnist Dileepa Fonseka on his (paywalled) piece detailing the loss of gaming developers to Australia and a massive missed opportunity during the lockdowns to embed global gaming maestro Gabe Newell in New Zealand as a resident. 

Peter and I also talked about the Three Waters reforms and Rupert Murdoch.

Other places I appeared this week

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

I appeared a a commentator for 1News as a commentator on Three Waters. I also produced my weekly When the Facts Change podcast for The Spinoff on:

The task of a generation - Aotearoa needs to double the size of its electricity industry over the next 30 years to meet our emissions reductions targets. We've done it before in 1945 to 1985 but can we do it again? With a myriad of privately and publicly owned companies waiting for market and regulatory signals, it seems unlikely. In the latest episode of my weekly When the Facts Change podcast for all via The Spinoff, I talked with electricity expert John Hancock about the prospects of doubling our power industry again.

Long story short? I think it’s going to be much harder now the ownership of these assets is so much more dispersed than from 1945 to 1985. We now have listed gentailers plus private gentailers plus private lines companies plus public-but-not-Crown-owned lines companies vs all-Crown control from 1945 to 1985. John thinks it can be done because there’s plenty of private capital wanting in on the growth.

Scoops elsewhere this week

What’s the point again? - The hydro-battery at Lake Onslow won't be commissioned until late 2037 and could take another one to three years to fill to maximum capacity, Marc Daalder reported for Newsroom from this MBIE business case document.

Wondering why food inflation is so high? - Forty six small to medium food suppliers to both Foodstuffs and Countdown told Newshub’s Janika Ter Allen last night the supermarkets are making gross profit margins of up to 55% on their products.

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Chart of the week

‘It’s actually too expensive NOT too reduce emissions’

Treasury/MoE report

Quotes of the week

‘Job done…’

"I think we've nailed it. Honestly, there's a balance to strike here." Kieran McAnulty after announcing reforms to the Three Waters reforms that increased the costs, reduced the benefits, left in place co-governance and did not change balance sheet separation.

‘Yeah…nah’

“So we get $30m for $7 billion worth of assets? What an absolute crock, the whole thing.” Christchurch City Councillor Sam MacDonald.

‘What about the money you promised us’

“It's a significant change. We’d like to understand why that ‘Better Off’ funding has now been removed. The only sweetener and carrot that was there is now no longer on the table.” Waimakariri Mayor Dan Gordon on the removal of $1.5 billion of ‘Better Off’ funding, which was not mentioned in the news conference.

‘Don’t make me angry, you wouldn’t like me when I’m angry…’

“I threaten to go feral later in the year if we don’t get some marching (to Auckland) from both of the two parties, because neither of them is particularly strong on what they are going to do for the benefit of Auckland.” Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown on why he expects political parties to offer good policies for Auckland in a speech this week. NZ Herald

My weekend reading, watching & listening suggestions for paying subscribers