The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
The Hoon
The hoon about the week that was to May 20
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The hoon about the week that was to May 20

In which I discuss the week's news in the political economy here and overseas with Peter Bale, including the Emissions Reduction Plan, Budget 2022; a global food crisis & the Australian elections
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TLDR: This week the Government released a tame Emissions Reduction Budget and presented a tighter Budget, while overseas, the United Nations warned 47m more people will starve within months if the war in Ukraine continues and Australian PM Scott Morrison faces an election loss this week.

I discussed these events and more in our weekly ‘hoon’ live webinar for paid subscribers to The Kākā, which is in recorded podcast form above for all to listen to. This is our weekly ‘sampler’ email for both free and paid subscribers.

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This week Grant Robertson tabled his fifth Budget. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/TheKaka

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Five big things this week

Is that it?

On Monday the Deputy PM Grant Robertson and Climate Change Minister James Shaw released the long-awaited Emissions Reduction Plan, which is the Government’s roadmap to achieve the emissions reductions budgets set by the Climate Commission.

The $2.9b of spending over four years listed in the plan is being paid for by $4.5b of receipts from the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which has been cordoned off into an Climate Emergency Response Fund (CERF) . It disappointed those hoping for faster and more aggressive action to shift people out of cars and onto bikes, buses, trains, footpaths, electric cars, e-bikes and scooters. It also did not include details of how to bring Agriculture into the ETS. That is due later this year.

Here’s what I wrote from the ‘lockup’ presenting the plan.

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
A tame, late and skimpy Emissions Reduction Plan
Listen now | TLDR: So much for a climate emergency. The Labour/Green Government has unveiled a politically and financially tame Emissions Reduction Plan, which still puts most of the load on buying credits offshore and has backloaded most of the spending here out past 2024…
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The 12 blocks of Tasty Cheese Budget

On Thursday, Robertson tabled his fifth Budget, including a $27-a-week-for-three-months one-off cost of living support payment for people not already getting the winter energy payment or a benefit. The price of a block of ts The Opposition criticised the Budget as profligate, although it actually represented a slight tightening of fiscal policy over the next four years.

Here’s what I wrote on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday about the background to Budget 2022 and the details announced on the day.

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Dawn Chorus: Tight enough?
Listen now (13 min) | TLDR: Finance Minister Grant Robertson has revealed the cover photo of Budget 2022 ahead of Thursday’s full release, saying this year’s Budget would be tight enough to ‘strike a balance’ between ‘keeping a lid on debt’ and supporting the economic recovery from two years of Covid, including a health system revamp…
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The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Building back no better
Listen now | TLDR: Today’s Budget will cement in three decades of Government spending, tax and investment incentives that delivered a low investment, low wage and high house price economy. The already-low chances of a ‘Build Back Better’ pivot have now completely disappeared as both sides of politics get back to business as usual after Covid…
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The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Budget 2022: When politics and inflation collide
Listen now (6 min) | TLDR: Budget 2022 is the Government’s response to calls for help for the ‘squeezed middle’, but also a slight tightening of fiscal policy as it tries to minimise the inflation pain wrecking its election chances. The ‘rabbit in the hat’ in this Budget is a one-off $350 cost of living payment for those not already getting the w…
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The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Budget 2023's $50b warchest
Listen now (6 min) | TLDR: The dust is settling on a holding-pattern Budget designed to win back Labour some lost ground in the polls in the short term. The real action and expectation will be around next year’s Budget, the last one before the election. Finance Minister Grant Robertson…
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A looming global food crisis

The UN warned on Thursday night that another 47m people faced starvation within a few months if the war in Ukraine and Russian blockades of grain shipments from Black Sea ports continued, adding to the 276m already hungry because of climate change and civil wars. Wheat prices rose another 6% on Wednesday night after India, the world’s second largest grain grower after China, banned exports.

The Economist-$$$ reported yesterday that Russia and Ukraine usually provide 12% of the world’s traded calories.

They supply 28% of globally traded wheat, 29% of the barley, 15% of the maize and 75% of the sunflower oil. Russia and Ukraine contribute about half the cereals imported by Lebanon and Tunisia; for Libya and Egypt the figure is two-thirds. Ukraine’s food exports provide the calories to feed 400m people. The war is disrupting these supplies because Ukraine has mined its waters to deter an assault, and Russia is blockading the port of Odessa. The Economist-$$$1

The United States is considering sending long-range anti-ship missiles to Ukraine to destroy Russian vessels enforcing the blockade and accused Russia of holding the food security of tens of millions hostage.

The UN’s World Food Programme also called for the blockade to end.

Scott Morrison is set to lose power this weekend

The Opposition Labor Party is ahead of the governing Liberal/National coalition by around five percentage points in the last polls before this weekend’s Federal election. PM Scott Morrison looks set to lose because women see him as sexist and his Government has taken little action to address climate change.

Stocks slumped on fresh recession fears

US stocks briefly fell into bear market territory overnight, taking their falls from their peaks in January to over 20%. Here’s what I wrote on Tuesday.

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Dawn Chorus: Recession warnings
Listen now | TLDR: China’s economy is slumping under the weight of its Covid-zero lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing, raising fears of recessions in the world’s three largest economies later this year or early next year. Those fears are driving down longer-term wholesale interest rates, despite all the talk of central banks having to hike short term rates to control inflation. The wholesale rates used to set fixed mortgage rates here have also fallen as much as 100 basis points in the last week…
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Links with -$$$ are paywalled.

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The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
The Hoon
Bernard Hickey's discussions with Peter Bale and guests about the political economy in Aotearoa-NZ and in geo-politics, including issues around housing affordability, climate change inaction and child poverty reduction.