Roosting chorus: RBNZ to print, then restrict

Reserve Bank plans another $28b of money printing and near-zero-percent lending, but only after bringing forward LVR reintroduction by two months to March; Landlords scramble to buy more before then

TLDR: The Reserve Bank surprised a few by bringing forward the reimposition of LVR restrictions, but only by two months to March. That leaves four months for landlords to scramble to gear up their equity with bank loans funded by another $28b of freshly printed near-zero-percent money from the central bank.

National’s Caucus and its leader Judith Collins chose a fresh shadow ministry, replacing Paul Goldsmith as Finance Spokesman with a ‘twofer’ of Collins-loyalist Andrew Bayly as Shadow Treasurer (Revenue) and Michael Woodhouse as Finance and Transports spokesman.

News that broke today in our political economy

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

First scratch: The @ReserveBankofNZ plans to print and lend up to $28b direct to banks at near 0% over 2 years; Success will depend on banks passing on low rates, which they haven't since August; There's no strings attached on first $18.7b.

thekaka.substack.comFirst scratch: Cheap loans for banksReserve Bank plans to print and lend up to $28b direct to banks at near 0% over 2 years; Success to depend on banks passing on low rates, which they haven’t since August; No strings on first $18.7b

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

My First Scratch on the @ReserveBankofNZ 's move to bring forward LVR restrictions by two months. No word yet on whether first homers will be exempt. Plenty of time before March for rental property investors to go ballistic. If the banks will lend to them.

thekaka.substack.comFirst scratch: RBNZ brings forward LVRsCentral bank tries to cool housing market it heated up by bringing back LVRs 2 mths early; No word if first home buyers will be exempt; Bank capital upgrade delayed 1 yr; Dividends ban stays til March.

Stuff @NZStuff

Who is up and down in the latest National Party reshuffle

dlvr.itWho is up and down in the latest National Party reshuffleANALYSIS: The biggest drops and largest jumps in Judith Collins’ new lineup.

News that broke today in the global political economy

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

One for @NZComCom to read. Would be nice if our anti-monopoly regulator was more than a spectator at the bottom of the world on this. https://t.co/r8oqkBLx3l

Financial Times @FinancialTimes

China’s market regulator has taken its first major step towards curbing the monopolistic power of its tech giants https://t.co/k9CGBwnfUO

Slate @Slate

Whatever he meant, this was a dangerous and misleading thing to say.

slate.trib.alMike Pompeo: “There Will Be a Smooth Transition to a Second Trump Administration”This might have been a joke. It wasn’t funny.

News that broke today in business and markets

The Kiwi dollar jumped as traders reduced expectations of negative interest rates here. SkyTV shares jumped after announcing less churn and a higher profit outlook, despite a lack of Rugby coverage during the winter and spring.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Turns out not having as much rugby was not such a bad thing for Sky TV. Its churn rate was lower than expected, and its costs were lower too with less rugby.

businessdesk.co.nzSky ups revenue guidance for FY21Sky Network Television has improved its guidance for FY21, citing growth in direct satellite customers and lower year-to-date annualised churn.The company now projects revenue for the 12 months to June 30 2021 at between $680 million and $710 million, up from a September estimate of between $660 and…

Stuff.co.nz Business @NZStuffBusiness

Mainfreight keeps trucking on, lifting profits and dividends amid coronavirus disruptions

dlvr.itMainfreight keeps trucking on, lifting profits and dividends amid coronavirus disruptionsMainfreight said first-half profit rose 23 per cent to $72.9 million, and full-year profit should also be “much improved”.

Chart of the day

Bank lending to businesses since February has fallen a net $4.5b, as this Reserve Bank chart showed.

Signs ‘o the times links

Stuff.co.nz Politics @NZStuffPolitics

Rural water users challenge Kaikōura council plans to treat their water

dlvr.itRural water users challenge Kaikōura council plans to treat their waterWater supply users say the Kaikōura District Council should have talked to them before coming up with expensive plans to treat their bore water.

Places I spoke or wrote or appeared today

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Here's my chat with @CorinDann on @NZMorningReport about the @ReserveBankofNZ MPS due at 2pm today. We spoke before the surprise and early LVR announcement. I was picking nothing until Nov 25.

rnz.co.nzRBNZ moves will lead to more housing heat - business journalist<p>The Reserve Bank will today announce new measures in its fight for cheap money and economic recovery from the pandemic.</p> <p>Business journalist Bernard Hickey expects the bank’s latest monetary policy statement to be a new round of money printing.</p> <p>He says the result will be an increas…

Some fun things

Stuff @NZStuff

Orcas take tour of Wellington harbour, crowds in hot pursuit dlvr.it/RlQxps

Coming up…

Tomorrow Nov 12 - 10.45 am - Stats NZ to publish travel and migration data for September.

Tomorrow Nov 12 - 8.30 am - Sanford to publish full annual results to NZX, but it gave an early indication on Nov 5 of a 46% fall due to Covid-19.

Tomorrow Nov 12 - 10 am - Infratil will brief investors, analysts and media on its half year results and strategy.

Tomorrow Nov 12 - 6pm - Epidemiologist David Skegg to deliver Frank Holmes lecutureon Covid-19 at Old Government Buildings, Lecture Theatre 1 in Wellington

Fri Nov 13 at 10 am - Business NZ-BNZ Purchasing Managers Index for October

Fri Nov 13 at 10.45 am - Stats NZ to publish rental price indexes for October.

Mon Nov 16 at 10.45 am - Stats NZ to publish wellbeing statistics for September quarter.

Sat Nov 21 - National Party AGM due to vote on re-election of President Peter Goodfellow.

Weds Nov 25 - 2pm - Reserve Bank to publish six monthly Financial Stability Report (FSR) . Expected to warn of re-imposition of high LVR lending limits from May 1, 2021.

Weds Nov 25 - Opening of Parliament for 53rd term, including swearing in of new MPs

Thurs Nov 26 - Speech from the throne in Parliament outlining Government’s agenda

Ngā Mihi

Bernard