Upston hardens benefit sanctions to force more into work, but beneficiary numbers still rising as NZ jobs market contracts, just as Australia's jobs market grows; Labour above National in new poll
We won't stop it altogether as some people will still want to try Australia out, but wages and conditions of employment play a huge role in people deciding to move to Australia.
For a government that looks so much to the USA as a model, perhaps taking on board something John Adams said as far back as 1770 could be beneficial: "Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the alter the state of facts and evidence”. Hence, if policies are not working, even with the best hopes of the voting majority, redoubling efforts on the same will not change the "state of facts and evidence".
Indeed. Great points. Sometimes though I often think of the John Maynard Keynes quote: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” In this case irrational ‘political’ markets and solvency being planetary and species survival…
After a change of Government, may even be this year!
The crack down on beneficiaries will increase theft as unemployed, unable to find a job, loose their benefit, get desperate for money, food other necessities..
The latest Talbot Mills corporate poll has Labour’s support at 34% ‒ just ahead of National at 33%. While National’s support was steady from the last poll, Labour was up by three percentage points. Labour last led in that poll in June 2023.
The Greens were steady on 12%, ACT was down one, on 9%, New Zealand First was down 0.6 percentage points at 5.2% and Te Pāti Māori was down 0.5 percentage points to 4.6%. Talbot Mills also does internal polling for the Labour Party.
If reflected on election day, it would give the left of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori enough to govern.
While issues around the Treaty Principles Bill followed Luxon to Rātana celebrations i n January, Luxon is this week forgoing the annual trip north to Waitangi to spend the day at Ōnuku Marae in Akaroa, near Christchurch.
The poll also had Labour leader Chris Hipkins at 25% just ahead of Luxon as preferred PM at 24% ‒ the first time in a Talbot Mills poll since the election. The pair had been neck and neck twice in that time, the last time in May 2024.
The newest result was from a 5 percentage point jump from Hipkins, and one percentage point dip from Luxon.
Talbot Mills sample size was 1049 people between January 7 and January 27, through online surveys.
The problem with economic tipping-points is they can be tricky to pin down. Frustratingly, they often misbehave, accelerating much faster than predictions, especially when the human psyche is involved. I don’t think putting ‘existential’ in front of crisis is too over the top regarding New Zealand’s economic position. The government’s weakly lead, ideologically cross-bred coalition, is a major impediment to making tough decisions. Decisions urgently required to rip out and rewire the country’s economic engine. The wiring carrying power to the system burned out decades ago and is no longer fit for purpose. Its disrepair risks sparking, which could ignite a house fire at any time. Pun intended.
Most (not all) young Kiwi's suppose milking cows to be degrading and humiliating. Not the practice of it- merely the notion and contempt of ones peers for doing something so 'yuk'. Filipinos and old people seem far less fussy. I've done it- it's an ok job tbh.
Personally I think it's pathological modernism- a visceral contempt for 'the old days'. Being a nation at the edge of the world it's hard to envisage NZ as being the 'hub' of anything. A bit of cinematic-adjecect and tourism, but basically destined to be a node of primary production. I would like to see a lot more focus on 'intermediate / appropriate technology & import substitution though- like a systematic approach to 'No8 wire'. Deglobalisation will hit us like a runaway train since our political class are studiously ignoring world trends- an act of blind faith to the Hegemonic Empire. It beggars belief that NZ is still de-industrialising at this stage.
As a millennial, I can confirm this is true. My fear is that cows will pee on me while I'm milking them(& I'm a delicate snowflake).
...annnnnd...
I currently have a job that while it is physical, as soon as it's clock out time(not a second later), I along with my colleagues(of various generations) are leaving clouds of dust as we leave work!
That is a luxury not afforded to people who work on farms & my generation knows that.
We(most of us) still remain grateful for those who have the gusto & heart to work the farms.
Actually a great question. Here’s what Upston said in her release about the two ‘non financial sanctions’:
‘Report Job Search – where job seekers will be required to perform a minimum of three job-search activities every week for four weeks and report back to MSD on this. This sanction will support increased accountability for beneficiaries who are meant to be looking for work.
‘Upskilling – where job seekers will be required to attend and participate, to MSD’s satisfaction, in one or more employment-related training courses or programmes for a minimum of five hours per week over a four-week period. This sanction will support beneficiaries with building the skills they need to get into work.
‘Non-financial sanctions provide an alternative to financial penalties for first-time obligation failures for some job seekers, allowing them to continue receiving their full benefit payment while under sanction.
‘Those sanctioned will also be required to provide evidence of their activities at the end of their sanction to return to ‘green’ in the Traffic Light System.’
My conclusion is refusal to do the job search activities or upskilling takes you to orange, and any one more mistake, and then sanction becomes financial.
I'm not sure that there's much jobs growth in Australia either. I've been on the hunt for a new remote job for the last few months and the number of job ads has dropped dramatically from 6 months ago, when I first looked. Maybe it's just my field? I was hoping for a boost after the summer break, a 0.2% increase seems about right, but it was only because December and January was so bad.
(Remote jobs are more common than not in my field. As not-for-profits in Aus tend to reduce costs by eliminating the need for an office, thankfully!)
The newest one will seem reasonable to many. But they are not. They are abusive. I don’t know if you have ever been depressed. If so you will know how hard it is to initiate anything. If you have been sexually abused or your mother drank too much when she was pregnant or you have had a brain injury or a multitude of other problems, it is quite likely you cannot meet these stringent rules. They are impossible. So you are sanctioned. It saves the government a little money, increases the need for more prison beds, more beds on the street and worst of all, it is bullying and abusive. Is Luxon really like Trump?
I agree completely with you. There is so much to say. I am flummoxed that Luxon et al can not understand what is happening. The work ethic the Govt is pushing developed in the mid 20th Century. With paid work decreasing, how is work found?
The ones who are going to do the hard yards with job application blitzing for Louise Upston are recruitment staff. I checked earlier today with an experienced government recruitment manager who said they are getting 400 applications for lower-level admin-type roles - the type of 'back office' jobs Luxon and co. have been keen to get rid of. So, out of 400 applicants, 399 are unsuccessful.
How do you force unemployable people into work?
You don’t, you just sanction them off the benefits… their goal is to get the number of people on benefits down, not the unemployment rate….
How do we stop being a migration gateway to Australia?
We won't stop it altogether as some people will still want to try Australia out, but wages and conditions of employment play a huge role in people deciding to move to Australia.
For a government that looks so much to the USA as a model, perhaps taking on board something John Adams said as far back as 1770 could be beneficial: "Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the alter the state of facts and evidence”. Hence, if policies are not working, even with the best hopes of the voting majority, redoubling efforts on the same will not change the "state of facts and evidence".
Great!! Should be put up in lights in as many places as possible
Indeed. Great points. Sometimes though I often think of the John Maynard Keynes quote: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” In this case irrational ‘political’ markets and solvency being planetary and species survival…
So when's that CGT & Wealth Tax coming in... November 2026 or earlier ?
(asking for a mate*...)
*the entire country
After a change of Government, may even be this year!
The crack down on beneficiaries will increase theft as unemployed, unable to find a job, loose their benefit, get desperate for money, food other necessities..
Job hunting is turning from musical chairs to a game of thrones under this lot of misers and whip crackers. You win or you starve.
Bernard, you mentioned a poll but I couldn’t find it linked in the newsletter?
https://www.thepost.co.nz/politics/360568711/another-poll-puts-labour-support-ahead-national
Sorry Brad. My fault. Got swamped at the end. https://www.thepress.co.nz/politics/360568711/another-poll-puts-labour-support-ahead-national
The latest Talbot Mills corporate poll has Labour’s support at 34% ‒ just ahead of National at 33%. While National’s support was steady from the last poll, Labour was up by three percentage points. Labour last led in that poll in June 2023.
The Greens were steady on 12%, ACT was down one, on 9%, New Zealand First was down 0.6 percentage points at 5.2% and Te Pāti Māori was down 0.5 percentage points to 4.6%. Talbot Mills also does internal polling for the Labour Party.
If reflected on election day, it would give the left of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori enough to govern.
While issues around the Treaty Principles Bill followed Luxon to Rātana celebrations i n January, Luxon is this week forgoing the annual trip north to Waitangi to spend the day at Ōnuku Marae in Akaroa, near Christchurch.
The poll also had Labour leader Chris Hipkins at 25% just ahead of Luxon as preferred PM at 24% ‒ the first time in a Talbot Mills poll since the election. The pair had been neck and neck twice in that time, the last time in May 2024.
The newest result was from a 5 percentage point jump from Hipkins, and one percentage point dip from Luxon.
Talbot Mills sample size was 1049 people between January 7 and January 27, through online surveys.
The problem with economic tipping-points is they can be tricky to pin down. Frustratingly, they often misbehave, accelerating much faster than predictions, especially when the human psyche is involved. I don’t think putting ‘existential’ in front of crisis is too over the top regarding New Zealand’s economic position. The government’s weakly lead, ideologically cross-bred coalition, is a major impediment to making tough decisions. Decisions urgently required to rip out and rewire the country’s economic engine. The wiring carrying power to the system burned out decades ago and is no longer fit for purpose. Its disrepair risks sparking, which could ignite a house fire at any time. Pun intended.
https://youtu.be/ahWgxw9E_h4?si=KpjiKE44ir7ozBCG
Reminds me of the movie, "I, Daniel Blake".
And also, weren't we promised "downward pressure on rent" after all those tax cuts to landlords??
I, Daniel Blake should be watched by all politicians. Walking in his steps could be anyone. Even deposed or unelected MP's.
Most (not all) young Kiwi's suppose milking cows to be degrading and humiliating. Not the practice of it- merely the notion and contempt of ones peers for doing something so 'yuk'. Filipinos and old people seem far less fussy. I've done it- it's an ok job tbh.
Perhaps the contempt is a cover for nature phobia which seems to be a thing - https://theconversation.com/biophobia-search-trends-reveal-a-growing-fear-of-nature-206635 . And a very disturbing thing at that.
Personally I think it's pathological modernism- a visceral contempt for 'the old days'. Being a nation at the edge of the world it's hard to envisage NZ as being the 'hub' of anything. A bit of cinematic-adjecect and tourism, but basically destined to be a node of primary production. I would like to see a lot more focus on 'intermediate / appropriate technology & import substitution though- like a systematic approach to 'No8 wire'. Deglobalisation will hit us like a runaway train since our political class are studiously ignoring world trends- an act of blind faith to the Hegemonic Empire. It beggars belief that NZ is still de-industrialising at this stage.
And continuing to build McMansions on our most fertile food growing land...
As a millennial, I can confirm this is true. My fear is that cows will pee on me while I'm milking them(& I'm a delicate snowflake).
...annnnnd...
I currently have a job that while it is physical, as soon as it's clock out time(not a second later), I along with my colleagues(of various generations) are leaving clouds of dust as we leave work!
That is a luxury not afforded to people who work on farms & my generation knows that.
We(most of us) still remain grateful for those who have the gusto & heart to work the farms.
What are the sanctions?
Actually a great question. Here’s what Upston said in her release about the two ‘non financial sanctions’:
‘Report Job Search – where job seekers will be required to perform a minimum of three job-search activities every week for four weeks and report back to MSD on this. This sanction will support increased accountability for beneficiaries who are meant to be looking for work.
‘Upskilling – where job seekers will be required to attend and participate, to MSD’s satisfaction, in one or more employment-related training courses or programmes for a minimum of five hours per week over a four-week period. This sanction will support beneficiaries with building the skills they need to get into work.
‘Non-financial sanctions provide an alternative to financial penalties for first-time obligation failures for some job seekers, allowing them to continue receiving their full benefit payment while under sanction.
‘Those sanctioned will also be required to provide evidence of their activities at the end of their sanction to return to ‘green’ in the Traffic Light System.’
Here’s more on the Traffic Light System:
https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/about-work-and-income/news/2024/traffic-light-system.html
My conclusion is refusal to do the job search activities or upskilling takes you to orange, and any one more mistake, and then sanction becomes financial.
I'm not sure that there's much jobs growth in Australia either. I've been on the hunt for a new remote job for the last few months and the number of job ads has dropped dramatically from 6 months ago, when I first looked. Maybe it's just my field? I was hoping for a boost after the summer break, a 0.2% increase seems about right, but it was only because December and January was so bad.
(Remote jobs are more common than not in my field. As not-for-profits in Aus tend to reduce costs by eliminating the need for an office, thankfully!)
But the government said that restoring interest deductibility would put downward pressure on rents...
They actually meant put upward pressure on landlords profits but realised it didn’t sound so good if they were honest.
You have my permission to make public any article.
Thanks Pat. I’ve opened this one up for full sharing, reading and listening now.
About Sanctions
The newest one will seem reasonable to many. But they are not. They are abusive. I don’t know if you have ever been depressed. If so you will know how hard it is to initiate anything. If you have been sexually abused or your mother drank too much when she was pregnant or you have had a brain injury or a multitude of other problems, it is quite likely you cannot meet these stringent rules. They are impossible. So you are sanctioned. It saves the government a little money, increases the need for more prison beds, more beds on the street and worst of all, it is bullying and abusive. Is Luxon really like Trump?
I agree completely with you. There is so much to say. I am flummoxed that Luxon et al can not understand what is happening. The work ethic the Govt is pushing developed in the mid 20th Century. With paid work decreasing, how is work found?
Agree sanctions announced are bullying & abusive. Upston thinks she is immune from being THEM.
They are punitive sanctions.
The ones who are going to do the hard yards with job application blitzing for Louise Upston are recruitment staff. I checked earlier today with an experienced government recruitment manager who said they are getting 400 applications for lower-level admin-type roles - the type of 'back office' jobs Luxon and co. have been keen to get rid of. So, out of 400 applicants, 399 are unsuccessful.
Beatings will continue till morale improves.