Simeon Brown hopes to save 12 mins in taxi trip to airport via tunnel that others say may cost over $10b; 205 NZers migrate each day; 110/day go to Australia; Govt talking NZ into deeper recession
gezzz... so far, I disliked Simeon Brown profoundly, but at least I “sort of” respected their consistency of being fiscal zealots in terms of spending (other than their self-interested devotion to landlording). Yet the fact that he actually realistically considers this gargantuan idea after canning the public transport option to Auckland airport and upgrading the interisland ferry at lower costs... is just wrong and shows that he and his boss are driven by some sort of revengefully messianic mission, rather then their already twisted view of the common good. Truly depressing
Exasperated is the word! Given the inflation since if in 2021 then Labor government could’ve embarked on a large infrastructure project and borrowed on the crown balance sheet at then low interest rates we’d be well ahead.
I think one of the most harmful ideals this government has is the individual acting in their own hollow self interest can enrich themselves, while denying any enrichment to others and it will be fine.
FYI Re very expensive roads: Stuff had an article about the Supreme Court sending approval for East West link in AKL back to the starting blocks and I sent in the following comments/queries to Stuff as I see the economics of the East-West link being very dodgy but were not referred to in the Stuff article. I thought subscribers to the Kaka might find the links interesting as another example of potentially wasteful road investments.
"I read your article re the East-West link with interest and as a consequence carried out an internet search re the project and I think it would have been useful if your article included reference to the costs and benefits of the East-West link. I say this as I found some articles that indicate that it is very expensive per kilometre and that that there are substantive queries about the benefit-cost analysis of the proposed project. Articles I found include the following:
A Stuff article from 2020 that included a reference to the link being the most expensive road in the world to construct per kilometre - see the end of the article.
Another article referred to the lack of an adequate cost benefit analysis on the project - including a statement from the NZTA that the benefits had not been quantified.
In summary it appears that there are substantive queries over economic aspects of the project that should be addressed before any approval by Government to construct is given. It would be great if Stuff published an article re these economic aspects".
Ka pai Bernard. That was a scorching response to this government's vacilation of going forward. Three comments from me.
1. Is this all because the NatActNZF gumment is being forced to carry through its pledge to cut tax?
2. Is the 4km tunnel a false flag attempt to divert attention away from the dire situation that you have detailed?
3. And please start to include your expert analysing ability onto the state and implications of our continied high inequality, our GINI coefficient remains amongst the top five of the OECD countries.
There are almost none of our social ills that cannot be linked back to the gross inequality that has been encouraged since the 80s 'reforms'.
My PhD is on human impacts on coral reefs - I documented one of the first bleaching events in PNG in 2000. What is happening to coral reefs is a mass extinction event that might wipe out 95% plus percent of them in the coming decade/s. Definitely in our lifetime. This is utterly INSANE and heartbreaking for so many reasons: over 2 billion people in the Global South are directly dependent on coral reefs for food, shelter from extreme weather events, building materials etc. 30% of all marine species will disappear instantly when coral reefs disappear - the flow-on effect on marine ecosystems and our food pyramid are unimaginably dire. Not to mention that some of the world's greatest biodiversity is directly dependent on the survival of coral reefs. They have survived for over 500 million years, and our ecocidal species is managing to wipe them out with less than 200 years of fossil foolishness. And this greatest of tragedies and human-induced horrors is barely mentioned by the MSM. Thanks for bringing it up, Bernard. I despair.
Honestly just fund a helicopter to transport the politicians to the airport. Same result and it'll be far cheaper!
Speaks to a government thats lost focus. In the middle of a cost of living squeeze, lets put forward this stupid project that will never see the light of day. What a waste of everyone's time... Does this government actually have a purpose? Seems like they are meandering around with no real idea of what they are doing.
I recently read How Big Things Get Done by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner. It is an interesting overview of how these projects get out of hand. from their analysis mean cost overrun of tunnels is 37%, percentage of projects in the over 50% cost over run is 28%, and the mean overrun of projects in the tail is over 100%. Long story short it is going to be more than 12B, and not contribute to making living in Wellington any better, just less time in getting on the steel bird on a one way ticket out of NZ.
I'm fairly stunned that anyone is giving this latest brain fart of Simian's any oxygen. Most of Pōneke knows it'll never happen because:
a) the whole area is either reclaimed swamp (Basin Reserve area) or reclaimed land
b) it's highly seismic
c) it's also highly historic - a quick cast back to the construction of Karo Drive reveals the extent of stoppages for archeological enquiry on that project - this area is no different
Lots of interesting points arising out of one post. Net migration is up, and looks like it will continue. Building industry in crisis with builders closing shop. Building Consent applications are down around the country. Kainga Ora revisiting a lot of its projects. So fair to say there will be a lot fewer houses built around the country in the next few years and a lot more migrants coming in. Costs of insurance and rates are through the roof. Cost to build is not reducing despite building industry being in crisis.
In fact it is increasing with Councils demanding more and more fees and passing on costs to developers on more and more building elements (storm water neutrality, sewer neutrality in some cases etc). What impact will this bouquet of issues have on house prices and rents, and is the inevitable outcome the fault of the landlords?
226,000 foreign migrants into New Zealand in one year. about 2000 of them genuine refugees. is there detailed information available that states the jobs/occupations those 224,000 immigrants are now employed in?
this is a colossal/huge/massive increase in the number of people who will now need housing in NZ. it is obvious who will gain financially from the exceedingly large increase in NZ's population (the property investors continually state that rents are determined by the demand). NZ already needed about 200,000 public/state dwellings to be built and now it is about 270,000 (2.5 people per dwelling).
does SB have a mate in the tunnel design consultancy business who is going to benefit financially from the Wellington tunnel even if it isn't bored/constructed?
Show me the ferry ⛴️
Pretty sure the tunnel is a diversion. Nothing like a dumb road announcement to push the cigarette mess off the front page.
Unbelievable priorities. Indeed, show us the ferry! Major highway route.
gezzz... so far, I disliked Simeon Brown profoundly, but at least I “sort of” respected their consistency of being fiscal zealots in terms of spending (other than their self-interested devotion to landlording). Yet the fact that he actually realistically considers this gargantuan idea after canning the public transport option to Auckland airport and upgrading the interisland ferry at lower costs... is just wrong and shows that he and his boss are driven by some sort of revengefully messianic mission, rather then their already twisted view of the common good. Truly depressing
In his interview with Jack Tame, SB admitted that increasing speed limits to save 15 secs was worth it. Even if it did cost lives.
Exasperated is the word! Given the inflation since if in 2021 then Labor government could’ve embarked on a large infrastructure project and borrowed on the crown balance sheet at then low interest rates we’d be well ahead.
I think one of the most harmful ideals this government has is the individual acting in their own hollow self interest can enrich themselves, while denying any enrichment to others and it will be fine.
FYI Re very expensive roads: Stuff had an article about the Supreme Court sending approval for East West link in AKL back to the starting blocks and I sent in the following comments/queries to Stuff as I see the economics of the East-West link being very dodgy but were not referred to in the Stuff article. I thought subscribers to the Kaka might find the links interesting as another example of potentially wasteful road investments.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350242546/aucklands-east-west-link-ordered-back-starting-blocks
"I read your article re the East-West link with interest and as a consequence carried out an internet search re the project and I think it would have been useful if your article included reference to the costs and benefits of the East-West link. I say this as I found some articles that indicate that it is very expensive per kilometre and that that there are substantive queries about the benefit-cost analysis of the proposed project. Articles I found include the following:
A Stuff article from 2020 that included a reference to the link being the most expensive road in the world to construct per kilometre - see the end of the article.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/119180576/eastwest-link-misses-out-in-12b-govt-infrastructure-announcement
Another article referred to the lack of an adequate cost benefit analysis on the project - including a statement from the NZTA that the benefits had not been quantified.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/auckland/23-06-2017/i-have-not-quantified-the-benefits-the-astonishing-truth-about-nzs-most-expensive-road-ever
Another article claims there are flaws in the cost-benefit analysis:
https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2015/12/03/costs-benefits-and-east-west-connections/
In summary it appears that there are substantive queries over economic aspects of the project that should be addressed before any approval by Government to construct is given. It would be great if Stuff published an article re these economic aspects".
Ka pai Bernard. That was a scorching response to this government's vacilation of going forward. Three comments from me.
1. Is this all because the NatActNZF gumment is being forced to carry through its pledge to cut tax?
2. Is the 4km tunnel a false flag attempt to divert attention away from the dire situation that you have detailed?
3. And please start to include your expert analysing ability onto the state and implications of our continied high inequality, our GINI coefficient remains amongst the top five of the OECD countries.
There are almost none of our social ills that cannot be linked back to the gross inequality that has been encouraged since the 80s 'reforms'.
No wonder thousands are heading to Oz.
Ka kite, nga mihi ki a koe.
Michael Dymond
My PhD is on human impacts on coral reefs - I documented one of the first bleaching events in PNG in 2000. What is happening to coral reefs is a mass extinction event that might wipe out 95% plus percent of them in the coming decade/s. Definitely in our lifetime. This is utterly INSANE and heartbreaking for so many reasons: over 2 billion people in the Global South are directly dependent on coral reefs for food, shelter from extreme weather events, building materials etc. 30% of all marine species will disappear instantly when coral reefs disappear - the flow-on effect on marine ecosystems and our food pyramid are unimaginably dire. Not to mention that some of the world's greatest biodiversity is directly dependent on the survival of coral reefs. They have survived for over 500 million years, and our ecocidal species is managing to wipe them out with less than 200 years of fossil foolishness. And this greatest of tragedies and human-induced horrors is barely mentioned by the MSM. Thanks for bringing it up, Bernard. I despair.
Honestly just fund a helicopter to transport the politicians to the airport. Same result and it'll be far cheaper!
Speaks to a government thats lost focus. In the middle of a cost of living squeeze, lets put forward this stupid project that will never see the light of day. What a waste of everyone's time... Does this government actually have a purpose? Seems like they are meandering around with no real idea of what they are doing.
I recently read How Big Things Get Done by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner. It is an interesting overview of how these projects get out of hand. from their analysis mean cost overrun of tunnels is 37%, percentage of projects in the over 50% cost over run is 28%, and the mean overrun of projects in the tail is over 100%. Long story short it is going to be more than 12B, and not contribute to making living in Wellington any better, just less time in getting on the steel bird on a one way ticket out of NZ.
I'm fairly stunned that anyone is giving this latest brain fart of Simian's any oxygen. Most of Pōneke knows it'll never happen because:
a) the whole area is either reclaimed swamp (Basin Reserve area) or reclaimed land
b) it's highly seismic
c) it's also highly historic - a quick cast back to the construction of Karo Drive reveals the extent of stoppages for archeological enquiry on that project - this area is no different
Just move on and don't give it any more coverage.
Lots of interesting points arising out of one post. Net migration is up, and looks like it will continue. Building industry in crisis with builders closing shop. Building Consent applications are down around the country. Kainga Ora revisiting a lot of its projects. So fair to say there will be a lot fewer houses built around the country in the next few years and a lot more migrants coming in. Costs of insurance and rates are through the roof. Cost to build is not reducing despite building industry being in crisis.
In fact it is increasing with Councils demanding more and more fees and passing on costs to developers on more and more building elements (storm water neutrality, sewer neutrality in some cases etc). What impact will this bouquet of issues have on house prices and rents, and is the inevitable outcome the fault of the landlords?
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/15-04-2024/revealed-a-cost-benefit-analysis-for-wellingtons-long-tunnel
I enjoyed this comment from the Spinoff
Strikes me that the Billion dollar a min tunnel will likely feed straight into Evans Bay by the time its finished with sea levels rising etc.
226,000 foreign migrants into New Zealand in one year. about 2000 of them genuine refugees. is there detailed information available that states the jobs/occupations those 224,000 immigrants are now employed in?
this is a colossal/huge/massive increase in the number of people who will now need housing in NZ. it is obvious who will gain financially from the exceedingly large increase in NZ's population (the property investors continually state that rents are determined by the demand). NZ already needed about 200,000 public/state dwellings to be built and now it is about 270,000 (2.5 people per dwelling).
does SB have a mate in the tunnel design consultancy business who is going to benefit financially from the Wellington tunnel even if it isn't bored/constructed?