Raf makes a good point about stagnation of MMP. Thought it hasn't completely 'stabilized' yet, the Effective Number of parties both electoral and Parliamentary has been steadily trending downwards for some time now. Also worth noting that the only times a 'new' party has entered Parliament since MMP was introduced, they've been led by so…
Raf makes a good point about stagnation of MMP. Thought it hasn't completely 'stabilized' yet, the Effective Number of parties both electoral and Parliamentary has been steadily trending downwards for some time now. Also worth noting that the only times a 'new' party has entered Parliament since MMP was introduced, they've been led by someone who was already a sitting MP.
Have to say, seems like an odd pitch from TOP to be saying "vote for us to not have any influence on who forms the next Government, even if we get 5%". Not sure how that's the strongest message to their supporters. Also questionable how they think they could turn determinedly not providing guarantees of Confidence or Supply into influence over a Government, especially because a major party would probably prefer to have the guaranteed support to having them sit on the cross benches, so they'd have to negotiate *away* some influence in order to stay there. It also means they don't have any access to officials, or to conversations between Ministers.
Interesting thoughts. I suspect though TOP will have to trade away both supply and confidence to get their policies through. I doubt National or Labour want a potential land mine sitting there on the cross benches ready to vote no confidence at any stage. I doubt they'd go to the Governor General to say they had the confidence of the house.
Agree, this alludes to the same challenge I noted yesterday (before the Teal card announcement) about what we should realistically expect to get if we vote in TOP
I recall to myself though, on Raf's point about not being eager to go into coalition, that Jeanette Fitzsimons recounted to me once long ago that she and Rod Donald were called into Helen Clark's office following the 1999 election and asked what Ministerial Portfolios they would like (one imagines as a precursor to more detailed negotiation), and their refusal to pick one up was in no small part because they had a caucus full of first-time MPs that they felt needed coaching into a team by their Co-leadership.
It strikes me that from such a perspective, TOP not going into Government in its first term as a Parliamentary party isn't the worst choice.
Raf makes a good point about stagnation of MMP. Thought it hasn't completely 'stabilized' yet, the Effective Number of parties both electoral and Parliamentary has been steadily trending downwards for some time now. Also worth noting that the only times a 'new' party has entered Parliament since MMP was introduced, they've been led by someone who was already a sitting MP.
Have to say, seems like an odd pitch from TOP to be saying "vote for us to not have any influence on who forms the next Government, even if we get 5%". Not sure how that's the strongest message to their supporters. Also questionable how they think they could turn determinedly not providing guarantees of Confidence or Supply into influence over a Government, especially because a major party would probably prefer to have the guaranteed support to having them sit on the cross benches, so they'd have to negotiate *away* some influence in order to stay there. It also means they don't have any access to officials, or to conversations between Ministers.
Interesting thoughts. I suspect though TOP will have to trade away both supply and confidence to get their policies through. I doubt National or Labour want a potential land mine sitting there on the cross benches ready to vote no confidence at any stage. I doubt they'd go to the Governor General to say they had the confidence of the house.
Agree, this alludes to the same challenge I noted yesterday (before the Teal card announcement) about what we should realistically expect to get if we vote in TOP
I recall to myself though, on Raf's point about not being eager to go into coalition, that Jeanette Fitzsimons recounted to me once long ago that she and Rod Donald were called into Helen Clark's office following the 1999 election and asked what Ministerial Portfolios they would like (one imagines as a precursor to more detailed negotiation), and their refusal to pick one up was in no small part because they had a caucus full of first-time MPs that they felt needed coaching into a team by their Co-leadership.
It strikes me that from such a perspective, TOP not going into Government in its first term as a Parliamentary party isn't the worst choice.