80 Comments
Aug 12Liked by Bernard Hickey

Richard Harman in Politik interprets Simeon Brown's latest congestion charging utterances as pushing implementation further into the maybe-never-never:

'The reality, though, is that Brown is giving every impression of slowing down the road charging implementation, probably until after the next election.

https://www.politik.co.nz/minister-slows-down-moves-to-speed-up-traffic/

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Yep. Always after the next election. Which is why I'm super sceptical of all the economists and infrastructure nerds who always say just go to demand management. Never happens, unless meticulously planned with bipartisan support.

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Aug 12Liked by Bernard Hickey

It is difficult to name the worst of the announcements over the past few days - they just keep coming and keep ignoring the evidence. Most of us watched ‘I Daniel Blake’ and were horrified - Louise Upston took notes and used it as a template.

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Aug 12·edited Aug 12

'The hard-to-justify political difference in perceptions of course is that, somehow, a beneficiary aged 64 is lazy and needs to be forced out to work, while the same beneficiary aged 65 deserves to not only get a higher benefit, but can not work for as much as they like, as well as keep extra tax-paid earnings or (non-tax-paid) assets without punishment.'

I think 'can not work' should read 'can work for as much as they like ...'

When Robert Muldoon introduced his version of universal NZ Super from 1977 it did away with the income test that had existed previously. For eight years the over-60s in well-paying jobs enjoyed a bonanza. It was plainly unaffordable, and in 1985 a swingeing surcharge was applied to all other income received by Super beneficiaries.

All parties agreed the surcharge was necessary. But come the 1990s and MMP, Winston Peters broke ranks, championed the enraged wealthy of Grey Power, and supported National into government on condition of abolishing the surcharge. It ended in 1998, perhaps Winston Peters's most harmful economic contribution to New Zealand.

A surtax needs to be reimposed. Huge numbers of rich 'retired' with snouts in the Super trough.

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Yep. This has always bothered me - the lack of means testing for super. It’s all “unfair!” if some poor young single parent is claiming a meagre subsidy or benefit, but “totally unfair!!” if the government even suggests means testing super.

Throw the notion of MT on the heap along with wealth and capital gains tax.

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And don't get me started on GoldCard free ferry rides to Waiheke for $100-a-head restaurant lunches, nor on the lack of an income test for superannuitants getting the Winter energy payment automatically.

https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/products/a-z-benefits/winter-energy-payment.html

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Don't need means testing, just a more progressive income tax structure for those on super. A parallel is the higher level of income tax effectively paid by those payiong off their student loans.

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I could see this being a very popular policy with Millennials and Gen-Z, mostly to get back at Boomers for continually taking everything. But also it just makes sense.

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just a small detail - if one is over 77/8 one is not a Boomer. One is a war or prewar baby. That's a lot of people still alive - and a heap who never took everything. Beware generalizations and beware mixing up those who took with those who struggled.

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PS I thoroughly agree with the surcharge - not means testing. Its too open to fiddling and pages of poking.

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income testing is what is required. it is straightforward.

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No it is not straightforward. Some people earn a straight forward pay. some have jobs with a variety of cashless items on top of their cash. Have you ever been in this situation? I have. It meant my children's father being assessed to pay a very very small amount to support his children.

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yes I have (many years ago).

use IRD records and it is straightforward (although dishonesty is possible. but dishonesty to IRD is criminal).

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'I Daniel Blake' was a movie that affected me more than I can say ..

It made me feel utter compassion and empathy for those struggling with loss of jobs and the frustration of being a beneficiary ( a term, I feel is so derogatory ) .

I joined the TOP party ,largely due to the idea of a UBI .

I am horrified indeed listening to Upston and Luxon .😔

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Aug 12Liked by Bernard Hickey

"Another ready - fire - aim moment from the government"? I am not sure Bernard. I think they know exactly what they are doing - the issue seems to be that they are governing in the interests of a very small (but powerful) segment of the economy (landlords, Petroleum / Gas, tobacco, big Pharma). They aren't considering their policies in the round - the impact on the vast majority of "ordinary" people - because it isn't about joined up thinking or government for the common-wealth. It is seemingly about funnelling cash to the chosen few as fast as possible. Just like the Tories in the UK, the "culture war" stuff is primarily an imported tool for distraction and misdirection, so we don't notice the "smash-n-grab" of the economy. But I could be wrong of course.

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Room for both cockup and conspiracy. I think they do want to do congestion charging, but some time in the far distant future.

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Congestion charging could be monitored and charged using the same vehicle tracking technology (e.g. eRoad) that could be used to charge RUCs to all vehicles. The NAct coalition agreement stated "Work to replace fuel excise taxes with *electronic road user charging* for all vehicles, starting with

electric vehicles."

Not a vote catcher so probably it will be delayed until this government's next term, and best of luck on that front.

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You are not wrong, they have been captured by those interests and are merely dancing to their tune. Punishing the poor is just a way to try and convince themselves they are strong, when the opposite is the truth. The coalition of bullies is being bullied by even bigger ones.

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Not sure how you get that idea that the current government are beholden to particular industries?

Its not like.......

Our current Minister of Firearms is a former gun lobbyist

Our Associate Minister of Health is a former tobacco lobbyist

Our Minister of Public Health is part owner of two private hospitals

Our Minister of Mining and Fishing loves having secret dinners with business leader from those industries

And a National MP in a safe seat gets $200k in donations and fails to register those donations who just so happens to chair the select committee overviewing the Fast Track legislation.

Lucky NZ is such a corruption free country ;)

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"Lucky NZ is such a corruption free country"

that is obviously totally false/erroneous/incorrect/untrue/wrong and is absurd nonsense.

eg MPs who own residential rental property enacting legislation that gives them a colossal financial advantage over people who are wanting to buy a house for themself (and family).

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I think you have missed the sarcasm in there.

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I saw the sarcasm but I prefer to hit/punch directly.

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Vested interests are blatantly obvious. Where are the checks and balances that should be inherent in a democracy?

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"It is seemingly about funneling cash to the chosen few..."

it is not "seemingly" but deliberate and willful !!!

National governments, and now also the even more extreme Act, have always deliberately and willfully enacted legislation that further enriches the already rich, with no empathy whatsoever for the remainder of society.

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Aug 12·edited Aug 12

On a (+) note, the cycle ways in Wellington, which raised the ire of many a Wellingtonian at the start, including myself, are great! I used to bike heaps, but it got crazy out there. Its now much safer when you follow the cycle paths. Seriously safer. As a result i have adapted my behaviour (slightly and improving every day) and jumped back on my bike. Loads of benefits. If you want the people out of cars (which this govt doesn't) you have to provide safe alternatives. If we don't use them, then you can hit us over the head. But these fullas want to hit us over the head before providing any solutions. We all know how the upper elite get all the lollies and we get the lolly wrapping to lick. I also struggle how spending 830m for a bridge to Whangaparoa is a good investment?

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They’re pretty good all round. Wellington seems to have adopted the Parisian approach. Just do it and then finesse it in the real world. There are still some challenging bottlenecks remaining which may result in carparkalypse but I salute them for taking action.

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Can we have the equivalent "tough love" measures for the tax avoiders in the corporate world that we have for people who abuse the benefits? I'm sure the money saved for the state would be more significant.

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As someone who can't unsee what guns do to people growing up in Argentina in the 70s and then during the Falklands/Malvinas war, this news item really upsets me.

"Firearms reform minister says Police Association input not needed"

How on heart a gun lobbyist is the firearms reform minister? And says the police have no involvement!!! Who gets called when "law-abiding" gun owners do stupid things, or when guns get stolen? if you wanna shut things down for fun... you can use air rifles... there is no need to have a tool designed to KILL and HURT in the populations.

Is Luxon sooo power-hungry that he is ready to leave aside his morals for this?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/524936/firearms-reform-minister-says-police-association-input-not-needed

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I think Luxon and his morals parted ways many years ago

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I'd be surprised if Luxon ever had any morals and I'd be surprised if he knows what morals are.

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He is on record making a moral judgment on women that have abortion.

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yes, that is correct.

but when it comes to financial morality I believe he has none.

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Brown's decisions will leave some mighty deficits for others to address. What to make of his comprehensive disregard of evidence and anything not powered by fossil fuels or unrelated to private car ownership? Reads like a culture-warrior's orientation. His diagnoses and solutions are predetermined by axioms.

He feels like an echo of Stan Goosman, whose ministerial decisions of the 40s and 50s did much to shape the future of Auckland. At the opening of the first Auckland motorway in 1953 he's said to have quipped to a reporter: "My boy, the future of Auckland is with the motor car,"

Of course, Goosman was also a former roading contractor.

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How did Simeon Brown get handed all this power and responsibility? Obviously he’s not big on self-doubt but I assume Luxon regards him as capable. Capable of anything possibly.

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He got there by being overconfident, and his direction now is controlled by his close advisers - who happen to be affiliated to Atlas Nutwork

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Is it correct that the NZ chair of the Atlas Network is also the chair of NZME?

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Deputy Chair apparently https://www.nzinitiative.org.nz/about-us/board/

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you need to highlight these Board members in future coverage, Bernard

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We definitely need some form of congestion charging. It's just a shame that Nationals announcement of an announcement was so lacking in detail there is a real risk of this turning into their own Three Waters.

Especially because it sounds like they want to create a new begging bowl for council's to have to prove it is needed and get ministers to sign off on it... It seems like they are making it almost too hard to ever do.

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It also doesn't seem to create a pathway for the city/district councils with a congestion charge to funnel that revenue into public transport, because in most of NZ that is a regional authority role. Unitaries, fine, but what about Chch, Wellington, Dunedin, Tauranga, Hamilton etc plus their surrounds? Perhaps there is a plan to enable this (haha), but if not this - plus water reform and city/regional deals - could be another push towards amalgamation. If that's a viable end result it needs to be planned and discussed deliberately and publicly, not an after-thought.

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On congestion charing: Aside from the fact that no-one is delighted, do this govt really think that people want a tracker on their car that monitors their every move? That and the monitoring of beneficiary spending.

I thought the NAct thing was all about independence and smaller governments; I thought they objected to government interference in the personal. It seems that only holds true when they're in opposition or when it applies to other people...

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Anyone know whether beneficiaries have to switch to full time employment if they find a job? I think it was the Greens + TOP who suggested allowing folks to take part-time work without penalising them?

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Hi Bernard, having watched our wonderful athletes/sportspeople performing in Paris was inspirational, the camaraderie, modesty and pride made us proud to be a kiwi yet I look to what is happening politically at home and i shake my head at the unnecessary damage the Coalition are creating to our society’s well being that is starting to shred the fabric of who we are! Act party policies are appearing to have a lot of influence? This Government is moving further to the right than any other that i can recall.

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https://youtu.be/_pWjD75VXz8

(If the clip works correctly...) this interview with Portia Woodman hits really hard.

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Sure does, and she is so right. How dare they!

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Punishing beneficiaries .

Has anyone done an analysis of the cost involved with job seeking. It is possible to spend days cold-calling for which one needs comfortable shoes, suitably neat clothing, a car that works, access to a printer and computer. It also requires a huge amount of mental and physical stamina over an extended period.

All this detracts from what measures the unemployed might take to clothe and feed themselves and their whanau as well as keeping up with the bills

The common misconception is that the unemployed are lazy and indolent Only the rich are seen to be hardworking.

Living on a budget which barely covers fixed costs means that a lot of things the waged might simply go out and buy have to be produced at home - in the vege patch, at the sewing machine and in the kitchen, or through foraging and salvaging. In brief, being poor is not easy its hard work over long hours. .

It demands ingenuity , a sense of opportunism and, if you're lucky, some community sympathy.

The poor deserve respect not flagellation

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Luxon couldn't even bring himself to say how little a job-seeker gets on RNZ this morning. Incredibly, he "didn't know" what the amount was, despite 2 days of talking about sanctioning them! (Mr Luxon, for reference: $16k, or $18,380 for over 25 year olds, annually)

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Those who are most dependent on others are surely the wealthy.

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This entire coalition is absolutely intent on governing from 'vibes' rather than evidence. However, it feels increasingly redundant to point this out now, as their constituents (largely wealthy and isolated from the damage) clearly don't give a shit, and are happy to support policies that simply "feel about right" regardless - even as they deliver the opposite of what they promise (tough on crime, beneficiary bashing. building more roads etc)... What worries me more is the more general way they (and ACT especially) are so focused on, basically, eugenics with their approaches to sanctions and recontextualising our social contracts. Against endless historical evidence that prove neither genetics or human society actually 'work like that', they are taking us down an increasingly dangerous path with the ideology that it's possible to build a high-functioning society by strategically 'phasing out' 10-20% of it... People reading the likes of The Kākā are seeing the evidence, and do appreciate the risk. But, how do you reach those unwilling to engage with the reality of these policies, given even the now-daily use of lines like "evidence-free" is still not enough to penetrate the vibes-barrier?

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Great presentation. This situation does not suit the average person but it must suit somebody.

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Who is advising this Simeon Brown? The Max Bradford electricity market structure which is just a rort for the gentailers (this is by now a well established fact) - ignore this and instead go for a new gas fired power station - as the answer to a potential electricity shortage caused by limited gas supplies. Instead of the much cheaper and resilient solution of heaps of solar panels on houses, ev's as batteries, and such like. Sadly though that rational option cuts into the profits of the price gouging gentailers (and hence government revenue) so will not be allowed to happen.

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MBIE and commerce commission. https://www.mbie.govt.nz/assets/electricity-demand-and-generation-scenarios-report-2024.pdf

there is a need for some peaker gas plants, that are fast start by their analysis. I havent sighted any comments from Simeon if this is what he is asking for, but if it is it isnt out of line with what the boys and girls of MBIE have been documenting. Reason for it is not for dry year, but to replace generation that will be retired in the near future, and doesn't address the lack of fuel ( which is the actual issue at the moment? ). Bernard will be happy to see that they also use the stats nz population projections to determine future population...

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Is hydro fast start also?

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Historically it is , but getting it built unless it’s run of river would require some serious fast track fever dream . Suitable locations, complying with current earthquake risk requirements, let alone the ecological resistance protests that it would bring out… A power cable from Australia might be better!

Fits Simeon’s plan for LNG imports for GAS… he is making a market for it

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I was thinking of Geoff Bertram’s suggestion of re-nationalising our hydro dams and whether that could ensure integrated management of the dams and the potential for fast peaking power (in conjunction with heaps of roof top solar and wind to allow hydro to ‘spell’ during the day.

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I think most of the catchments are run by single companies? Mercury runs Waikato river and meridian runs Waitaki , Manawa runs kaimai

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But intrinsicly not running all the hydro as one system, rather as four competing schemes.

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Not content with wasting billions on ill-conceived roads, Simeon Brown now wants to waste billions on LNG imports instead of domestic solar. What climate breakdown?

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Batteries are fast start

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yes it is a piece of the puzzle for sure!

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There is one gas fired power station that is already consented Waikato power station, owned by Todd Corporation. Consent expires 2027.

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Does anyone know if stored renewables can provide the output you'd get from a gas-fired peaker? Just went for a walk around the wellington hills and imagined battery arrays connected to each turbine. Surely cost competitive with a new plant?

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Hey Greg batteries generally are good for demand shift but not really storage, ok for a day or so but we have issues with months in dry years hence the Onslow battery pumped hydro fever dream. Current low water and gas supply constraints make talk about new power plants an interesting boondoggle. Storage is going to be a bigger issue especially when with warmer temperatures means less snowfall ( this is where quite a bit of water for hydro is actually stored over winter). Maybe one of the councils will add some n some hydro power in with their water done well $$

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I had the feeling someone would know the answer. As another comment suggested, some kind of demand reduction (via the ability of homes and business to be more self-sustaining in their energy needs) seems like a better way forward than another piece of stranded capital.

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I just found this story from a little over a month ago... I guess part of the question is how much of a 'peak' do we need to be able to cover?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/glenbrook-to-get-big-grid-scale-battery-as-contact-teams-up-with-tesla

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I would have thought that a possible solution for those gentailers could be to bulk buy in batteries and solar panels, sell them to the public/their customers at a profit (but ideally still cheaper than we could by at retail) and then they could have, as part of your electricity contract, some agreement that your battery is part of their virtual power plant (like SolarZero are doing).

Ideally this would mean quick uptake of solar without needing big solar farms to be consented but could help people out who might not be able to afford it otherwise (possibly pay off over time against your power bill).

Sadly it still wouldn't resolve for renters, but would possibly save us 'needing' to build a new gas leaking plant. 🤷

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*buy

*Peaking plant, not leaking 🤦

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