44 Comments

Hi Bernard,

Great piece today (as usual).

I voted to open this up to the public, but I noticed too late the option for you to make the call. I think that is a better choice, and you can get feedback in the comments if you go too far (though I wouldn't expect much of that from this crowd).

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DItto, what Steven said.

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Thanks Maisie.

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Thanks Steven. Indeed. Ultimately, the customer is always right. :)

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"Rising tide"? Seriously Chris?? I thought even right-wingers had removed that nonsense from their venacular!

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Nice sensible snark in the Kaka this morning Bernard, thanks!... It physically hurts me to say it, but maybe the idiot pigeons, pecking at globalisation's scraps with this immigration-for-growth narrative, need a cat called Winston thrown among them? No decent policies will come from him, but at least it might force Nat-bour to come up with some alternative to pitch to the voters!

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Agree cheap and NASTY exploiters. Does no good for anyone in the long run. We all have to remember I think that the US runs a debt deficit if 130 percent and isn’t bankrupt because it issues it itself and as do many other countries so I’m sick of the dogwhistling on debt levels it’s a non issue.

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Ha! Thanks Tim. The trouble with Winston is he says one thing in opposition and then does the opposite in Government. He was there when Labour ramped migration up again in 2018 and 2019. We're all desperate. Just not that desperate. :)

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True. In yesterday's Emily Writes substack, it was pointed out that most political power comes from convincing voters of what is possible and impossible. I guess I just want someone to do just enough to convince voters that untethered immigration is no longer possible - so the big parties start to feel their power could slip - but without actually getting NZ First over the 5% threshhold! ;-)

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Excellent commentary Bernard thank you.

My kids are in there mid 20’s now and most of there friends have either left or are leaving this year. My wife works for a large corporate and the same age group of people in her team are starting to leave all sighting the same reason they can’t afford to live here and see no future here...sad situation to be in!

People emigrated to NZ for it’s wonderful lifestyle! That has been slowly eroded away and the rest of world knows that. Great article in stuff yesterday about a kiwi girl in Dublin comparing grocery costs on TikTok https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/131067124/new-zealand-student-on-exchange-in-ireland-shocked-by-insane-food-price-difference?cid=app-iPhone

Cheers

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Thanks Barry. That is an excellent piece. That's for reminding me of it. Quite right. When do you think the slightly puzzled parents will start understanding and change their votes.

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I understand Samoa has or is about to suspend it’s RSE for now as it’s badly affecting their society e.g. teachers can go to RSE and earn more leaving Samoa without skilled people. Will be interesting to see how that plays out. Unfortunately we can’t do that with Australia. I understand Queenstown has no cheap housing for its hospitality workers so more immigration won’t help that

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Well said as always. The last year has been depressing for how quickly some of the hopes of a great reset, following the implications of COVID, simply dissapeared. As someone in late 20s, I have kept asking my wife if we could move to Australia. But realising now that it is better to buy a house in New Zealand now, before the price rises begin again, and save Australia for later (if needed). Otherwise if we don't buy now, our ambitions of New Zealand home ownership could be forever gone.

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Thanks Rory. The key is whether Albanese wants to give you full and fair residency. You'll know within a few months.

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Looks like Hipkins is pivoting to the right and reverting to the status quo to mollify businesses. I think he's trying a small-target strategy. It's pathetic and won't work.

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It may not work, but he thinks it's the best he's got. Jacinda went with a go big or go home strategy in 2017 when she was bought in at the last minute to save the furniture. Sadly, a whole bunch of believed her and were surprised she couldn't/didn't follow through.

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Why shouldn’t people have believed her? Why not be surprised that she didn’t follow through? When a political party choses their leader, they are telling the public to trust them to be our leader too. If they don’t follow through on their main policies, whether due to a lack of support (what did most of Ardern’s MPs do?) or mistakes (Ardern’s no CGT comment) that’s on them, not the public who put our faith in them. BTW, I realised before the last election that both National and Labour would do more damage than good with their policies, so I voted TOP.

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Why shouldn’t people have believed her? Why not be surprised that she didn’t follow through? When a political party choses their leader, they are telling the public to trust them to be our leader too. If they don’t follow through on their main policies, whether due to a lack of support (what did most of Ardern’s MPs do?) or mistakes (Ardern’s no CGT comment) that’s on them, not the public who put our faith in them. BTW, I realised before the last election that both National and Labour would do more damage than good with their policies, so I voted TOP.

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Why shouldn’t people have believed her? Why not be surprised that she didn’t follow through? When a political party choses their leader, they are telling the public to trust them to be our leader too. If they don’t follow through on their main policies, whether due to a lack of support (what did most of Ardern’s MPs do?) or mistakes (Ardern’s no CGT comment) that’s on them, not the public who put our faith in them. BTW, I realised before the last election that both National and Labour would do more damage than good with their policies, so I voted TOP.

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Why shouldn’t people have believed her? Why not be surprised that she didn’t follow through? When a political party choses their leader, they are telling the public to trust them to be our leader too. If they don’t follow through on their main policies, whether due to a lack of support (what did most of Ardern’s MPs do?) or mistakes (Ardern’s no CGT comment) that’s on them, not the public who put our faith in them. BTW, I realised before the last election that both National and Labour would do more damage than good with their policies, so I voted TOP.

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Why shouldn’t people have believed her? Why not be surprised that she didn’t follow through? When a political party choses their leader, they are telling the public to trust them to be our leader too. If they don’t follow through on their main policies, whether due to a lack of support (what did most of Ardern’s MPs do?) or mistakes (Ardern’s no CGT comment) that’s on them, not the public who put our faith in them. BTW, I realised before the last election that both National and Labour would do more damage than good with their policies, so I voted TOP.

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Why shouldn’t people have believed her? Why not be surprised that she didn’t follow through? When a political party choses their leader, they are telling the public to trust them to be our leader too. If they don’t follow through on their main policies, whether due to a lack of support (what did most of Ardern’s MPs do?) or mistakes (Ardern’s no CGT comment) that’s on them, not the public who put our faith in them. BTW, I realised before the last election that both National and Labour would do more damage than good with their policies, so I voted TOP.

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Why shouldn’t people have believed her? Why not be surprised that she didn’t follow through? When a political party choses their leader, they are telling the public to trust them to be our leader too. If they don’t follow through on their main policies, whether due to a lack of support (what did most of Ardern’s MPs do?) or mistakes (Ardern’s no CGT comment) that’s on them, not the public who put our faith in them. BTW, I realised before the last election that both National and Labour would do more damage than good with their policies, so I voted TOP.

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Is there no one out there who knows the research that debunks the idea that raising the MW increases unemployment? Zombie politics.

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Possibly TOP? Which is what I'm seriously considering voting for.

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Nicola Willis seemed a decent person when appearing on The Hoon. How then can she twist a global phenomena and use it to beat low income earners with and keep a straight face? It's not intellectually serious is it? Actually, the whole lack of intellectual seriousness in all the major parties is a disgrace. We are not as bad as UK/US, but we are catching up.

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Sadly, low income earners are not the target voters for either party. They're not in the middle, and, even more sadly, often don't vote, especially the young ones who are Maori, Pacifica, Asian and renters.

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Exactly! If the people to whom these policies drubbed the most actually turned out at the polls we’d probably have prime minister Swarbrick.

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My biggest problem with 'the rising tide lifting all boats' is that more and more of us cant get a boat, leaving us to flounder.

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Or drown.

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I took that off the end 😄 thought it might be a tad depressing for the morning.

Glad you put it though

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Spot on. The lifejackets aren't great either.

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Thank you Bernard, It is depressing that business (some businesses) can value employees so little.

Respect & fair pay should be high on list. Looks from your analysis that our new PM cannot see the long game & restoration of equality in NZ.

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There is no long game in politics. Just polls. Median voters. And the number of days until the next election.

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Why do we let politicians treat elections as a game to win? It’s not a game, it’s a job they’re applying for.

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Is "The rising tide will lift all boats" the new catch phrase for tricke down?

The two major parties never talk to businesses who are supportive of a more equitable society. Interestingly we are never part of these business associations, chamber and what not.

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Great as always, Bernard. A very good read.

Sorry, but just to clarify: did Hipkins just say that Trickle-down theory actually works? 🤦🏼‍♂️

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Thank you Bernard - I found this analysis particularly helpful, although depressing. Can we share this one to non subscribers and particularly middle income friends who live in the suburbs?

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Seems to me there are at least two sides to our young people emigrating. One - they are enticed by better pay and opportunities. Two - serious lack of opportunities here. Honestly, are we not just a little bunch of islands stuck to the land? If you want to fly there's virtually no chance here. My children went 25 + years ago and are happy with their lives. They consider coming back but cannot see a life to come back to. 60 years ago I stayed put here as I was pretty sure I wouldn't want to come back and I needed to be here for family.

I find it all sad. We just grind on opting for the lowest common denominator. We are just like Samoa and other Pacific Islands. We lose qualified experienced people. i don't know if health professionals are still on the liability side of the ledger - ie they cost too much. The days of being on the asset side disappeared.

Bernard i know you want housing for people and so do I but seriously, who'd want to live in most of our neighbourhoods? Boring, materialistic people.

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Sorry something went wrong here and now i can't get rid of it. What I have written came up twice and I've failed to get rid of it.

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