31 Comments

Thank you Bernard. The ploy to create greater need for Private Health as Public system is drained seems shocking but daily more obvious. An example https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350158010/hospitals-could-face-dodgy-experiment-privatisation

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How reliable are these opinion polls, Bernard? We know the Taxpayer Union one will be suspect, so if the Verian poll on TVNZ aligns with it, is it also dubious? Check the Roy Morgan poll - https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9773-nz-national-voting-intention-november-2024. It has a distinctly different level of support for National, meaning the Government block has only 44% support, while the Opposition block has 50.5%. That is more realistic in my opinion.

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Most people inside politics are sceptical of Roy Morgan. I'm less so. But usually a simple average of the lot is useful. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

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Yes, those Curia polls don't pass the sniff test but news journo's are hungry for easy stories to publish so more often than not they disappointingly get highlighted as a genuine pollster.

https://waateanews.com/2024/03/14/john-tamihere-opinion-why-is-no-one-questioning-this/

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Very useful article. Thanks for sharing it.

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I like to keep in mind that capitalism operates for the generation of profit. Given this profit motive, it seems to me to be counter-productive to enable private-sector investment in the health sector (or, alternatively, in the prison sector). Private investors require profit be generated from the capital they provide, meaning there will always be revenue taken out of the system to return to investors. It seems to me it would be better to keep returns to investors within the system, cycling through to (further) support heath outcomes.

Am I the only person who has an aversion to anything labelled 'lite"?

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No you’re not Colin! I agree and surely many others do too!!

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My sister works in a lab at a major hospital in WA. It was built by a conservative government with PPP / Privatisation of Pathwest (the state pathology department) in mind. So the lab was built alongside the hospital, not inside it. To make the sale of the realestate easier. Fast forward a decade and the pathology has not been privatised, thankfully. But a worldwide shortage of specific plastic containers to move items through the vacuum tube system, took place this year. Urgent samples had to be run by staff from the hospital to the lab for testing, as they could not be sent through the hospital tube system without breaking. This took staff off the hospital floor. The lab should have been built inside the hospital. This is the stupid kind of stuff that happens when privatisation is considered or followed through on.

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No need for the Taxpayers Union to be at the Treasury briefing anyway. They will have had far more than two hours to view it, since they almost certainly ghost-wrote it on behalf of Willis.

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And yet, it's almost as if the universe is frantically waving a warning flag at us, from far away across the Pacific Ocean and overland to the Atlantic coast, about the inevitable dangers of private (profit-motivated) involvement in public healthcare...

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Some good appointments for the Climate Commission, at a time when commercial interface is now whats needed for action. Its the commercial decisions made by business that will move the dial on net zero. Patsy Reddy well respected, credible and Felicity Underhill has strong decarbonisation credentials operating in the energy industry (nb Fortescue Future was rolled into the wider Fortescue group last year, so not entirely accurate to describe her as a current FF director). Worth reading up on Fortescue's big energy decarbonisation aspirations.

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NRT's assessment falls a bit short.

I have great respect for Rod Carr and how he has advocated so firmly for the changes needed.

Reddy will bring a different approach and considerable mana within govt. That doesn't mean do nothing. Quite likely the opposite.

Underhill has worked for various energy companies which to my mind is a real plus as they are key to any transition. Fortescue is rapidly growing its green energy side.

p.s. Channel is not a "fossil fuel" company as commonly understood, yes it does fuel distribution and developing other activities at Marsden Point.

MacLean has been bringing his deep land based business experience to large scale conservation programmes for some years.

All look like good appointments but time will tell.

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Having served on a board with Patsy Reddy she didn't strike me as somebody who stood out at the board table.

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Had the joy of reading the Treasury's November release of assessments and briefing on Te Whatu Ora (confusingly called Health New Zealand or HNZ in many of the documents).

The overall impression is that Treasury's starting point is that the health allocation in the last budget is at the right level, and that exceeding that amount is caused by poor management. Nowhere is there any evidence that the question 'is this actually an underfunding issue' has been contemplated. And any concerns expressed about funding levels is dismissed as noise, eg:

"This paper updates Cabinet on the steps the Minister of Health is taking to address financial problems at Health NZ (HNZ). It seeks agreement to the proposal to dissolve the Board and appoint the current Chair as a Commissioner. The paper also informs Cabinet that some noise from the sector is likely as necessary but difficult changes are made at HNZ to return it to a financially sustainable operating position." (from 8 July Treasury briefing to Cabinet)

Their assessment of Lester Levy's performance at Canterbury DHB is very positive, a huge difference from assessments by others.

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Yeah Andrew, the deficit this last year looks similar to the year before… do I recall right that there was a shed load of debt written off the DHB books when they nationalised into health NZ? I think health has pretty much always run a deficit annually, difference between two big numbers situation. Staff the service accordingly and try to deal with what’s coming through the doors?

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The Treasury briefings say that Te Whatu Ora was expecting a $600 million plus surplus for 2023-2024, which reduced and reduced briefing by briefing (including because the government would not transfer over some $400 million odd it said it would provide to cover wage disparities). The final figure for the 2023-2024 year is around $750 million deficit. This includes having to pay back about $500 million in capital charges. Just ridiculous. (All figures as IIRC)

Why is Treasury so keen on Te Whatu Ora operating as a profit making business, instead of the basic break-even public service that it is/should be?

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Treasury not allowing Craig Rennie to attend the Financial Update lockup is not the action of a politically neutral public service.

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A follow up is whether the usual suspects from the NZ Initiative/Business Roundtable attend.

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So, this government's shit show rolls on - back door privatisation of the health system; Kiwi bank's new shares to be raised on the open market so that Kiwi Bank can eventually be taken over by a foreign bank; the CTU's economist banned from the HYEFU briefing; pay deductions for workers who dare to mount partial strikes when offered a crappy pay deal; McKee, the unhinged Minister in charge of bringing back sub machine guns, continues removing restrictive regulations on gun nuts & their gun clubs, (WTF?); & more than half the government's targets are behind track. When are the Opposition going to grow a pair & call bullshit on this appalling government?

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Aaron Smale is such an important journalist. Fully deserving of that acknowledgement from Newsroom.

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I am horrified that despite the many terrible things that the National government has done and is doing to New Zealand and to New Zealand society 37 percent of those polled state they will vote National. This proves that there are a lot of greedy, selfish, inhumane people in New Zealand.

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And bizarrely only a fraction of the 37% will be benefiting from their actions. S&M must be popular in NZ

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I think it will be quite a large fraction because the colossal financial advantage that the current government is giving to residential rental property owners (relative to those buying a home for themself (and family)) has resulted in a lot of people owning one or more residential rental properties.

therefore S&M not as popular as some might think.

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Another possibility Robert, is that 37% are stupid and vote according to habit or how their father said they should 50 years ago.

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Don't attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence etc

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Home ownership rate still well over 60%. Democracy for and by property-owners make sense until the majority of voters are renters.

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But do check the Roy Morgan poll. That gives what is hopefully a better picture.

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Maybe its also just the echo of tribalism. The comments section in the NZ Herald is a weird bubble (older white men?). I am beginning to wonder if the spate of incumbent governments around the world who lost, post-COVID, may be back in power within a single cycle - as voters remain in a blame mood with whoever is the incumbent?

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"Strategic Leasing" sounds a lot like a similar result to the classic vulture capital ploy of buying a company, selling the real estate back to themselves for discounted prices and bankrupt the company with their leasing....

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This came across my feed this morning. Very interesting given your post today.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DDK0Ak2okEa/?igsh=MXM2a2x0eGlvbnZmZQ==

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