Govt's axing of new Interislander ferries & terminals will limit economy's ability to grow pop'n 1.5-2% & GDP 3% per annum for decades. That's not the plan or the reason, but maybe that's a good thing
Degrowth is a planned reduction in energy and material throughput with a specific focus on wellbeing for all and living within planetary boundaries. Emphasis on planned.
This decision is more akin to living in an increasingly postgrowth world - as in we can't sustain growth and it falters in an unplanned and ah hoc way because we are facing limits to growth.
I'd appreciate if you could correct this Bernard 🙏
Thanks Peri. Agreed it's not a conscious de-growth plan, either on the part of humans or the planet. But it seems to be happening nevertheless. I'd prefer a planned descent. Not sure I'm powerful enough to correct this on my own... :)
Not to put a too finer point on it. But degrowth would be more like canceling road building projects to actually build the low emissions ferry project- providing for low emissions transport is a basic need. Restoring rail and ferry connections would be core to a degrowth policy platform
Or maybe it is a realisation that a lot of our "growth" is consumption driven not productivity driven - all this population growth hasn't being making NZ more productive where it counts - in transactions across the border - it has been having the opposite effect. Our trade deficit is regularly described in terms of percent of GDP but that is a meaningless comparator and makes it look less bad than it is - what is crucially important is the state of our current account - which is perennially in the negative.
.... from Stats NZ ...
New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted current account balance was a $7.4 billion deficit in the September 2023 quarter, $396 million wider than the June 2023 quarter deficit.
The widening of the seasonally adjusted current account deficit was mainly due to:
$633 million widening of the goods deficit
$292 million widening of the primary income deficit
$50 million widening of the secondary income deficit.
The widening of the seasonally adjusted current account deficit was partly offset by a $579 million narrowing of the services deficit.
So we are chronically spending more than we earn!!! To see where this takes us you only need to relate that back to your own personal situation - if you are spending 10% more than you are earning every year you end up broke and on the street.
Also we need to reconsider what is actually meant by the term "inflation" - it actually refers to the money supply getting ahead of demand for money - ie money printing has caused too much to be released into the economy - we had a burst of this during Covid lockdown.
Prices going up because of scarcity (or devaluation of our currency) increasing the cost of essentials such as petrol/food/energy is not inflation - is the market at work - it is not inflation - putting interest rates up to counter the "inflationary" effect of this is an act of simple stupidity - it just exacerbates the economic impact of the cost increases and causes considerable economic harm and adds substantially to the "rate of inflation".
Except the government's finances are different to household finances because the government is a currency issuer and all households (and local government) are currency users.
That is correct but all internal "economic" activity creates some demand for increased "external" economic activity - new cars/fuel/etc - that is why up until the Douglas/Lange reforms NZ had import controls/licencing to limit the amount of spending that seeped out of the domestic economy - China still runs this sort of regime - and oddly is a net exporter (creditor) where as we have become net importers (debtors)
Thank you for this. I love the productivity vs consumption growth distinction. This is where the buying and selling of houses / farms to each other for more money hasn’t helped us at all.
Suspect that because the “t” word (train) was part of the proposal it would have been upsetting to National but more importantly more years of the expensive and unreliable service from the ageing fleet, plus the impact on NZ’s emissions profile of not having the improvement to inter island rail transport.
The petulant “Ferrari” quote reveals the preference for 2nd hand infrastructure which has much higher long term costs - weak and unstable thinking
No, Bernard, having our infrastructure and societal links fail is not degrowth, it’s destruction and destabilization of our economy and society. Strengthening our investments as a SOCIETY is the type of “development” Amartya Sen says leads to “freedom”. Degrowth requires us to limit INDIVIDUALS unnecessarily driving diesel utes in town and flying to the moon.
I'm pretty sure many in this Cabinet (With its sole single South Island representative) think that NZ ends at Wellington... And maybe Queenstown is a rich mans island they can fly into for a little fun. This is critical infrastructure that we in the South rely on. If it falls over in the coming years, not only will it be on National, but it will be the South that is impacted the hardest.
Queenstown is indeed a 'rich mans' island' but you've got to boil the water before you can drink it & then ignore the essential workers sleeping in their cars because Queenstown has no affordable rentals. How third world are we?
I'm unclear on what mechanism this will actually limit population growth. It seems that the more likely outcome is the population growth is unaddressed and we're left with continually degrading level of service from our infrastructure.
@Bernard - I completely agree with Peri, this decision is anything but degrowth.
It is short-term thinking at its finest, highly likely to compromise the wellbeing of citizens (by increasing the likelihood of a major maritime disaster, amongst other things), and compromise the environmental health of a unique marine habitat in the Marlborough Sounds, (by keeping the current fleet of ageing & polluting ferries limping along, or replacing them with a different set of old shitbox ships).
But hey, I guess they have to pay for the tax breaks & new 4-lane highways somehow.
I'd be grateful for a greater population cohort that got their info from The Kaka rather than the likes of talkback, TV news. Any way you can do it? what about a time lapse access, say after a week or two the articles are free?
Yes Bernard because I believe your The K ākā must be available for as many people to read and listen to. There’s far too much shallow right wing commentators in the journalist arena. Your analysis and commitment to housing poverty and Climate change is paramount now with a government that is callous out of touch and simply dangerous undoing all the progress in the last six years taking Aotearoa back to the last century.
If only we treated natural resources with the respect that they deserve - intelligent materials that were billions of years in the making.
There is zero justification to destroy the natural world so that individuals might have whatever their foolish hearts desire.
There is however a fundamental human requirement that is being expressed more widely, more urgently now than ever before - the very real need to live in caring communities where precious resources are spent wisely.
How great would it be - if we could rethink our propensity to INDIVIDUALLY consume natural resources like they are trash?
Because THEN building sustainable and BOTH ecologically and economically sound infrastructure - thereby opting to live in stronger cohesive communities - becomes a no brainer.
This government has clearly missed the boat.
Or did they jump ship?
Either way, lucky for us, there's a lifecraft scheduled for 2026
I was thinking. Maybe we can hope Winston does what he has always done before. Back out of coalitions. Now that, hopefully, that would mean an election. I can’t imagine either the Maori party or Act wanting each other to be in government with them.. so go Winston go.
So should we continue to progress poorly planned programmes that blow out even before they are commenced? Bad decisions being made need some consideration.
At what point do we say so many infrastructure programmes were poorly done and focussed on the political theater (catchy Ardern titles but lack of delivery) that some of these decisions should not be allowed to touch Ministers hands.
For a moment there, Bernard, I thought this might be a bit of satire. Seems a bit more like magical thinking if you expect degrowth from this. As others have commented, the growth in population will continue but we will have just missed the boat on the infrastructure.
It’s another one of those present-day cost saving measures that don’t age well... like National cancelling the busway on the North Western Motorway in Auckland when they upgraded it. Now we have a rather unsafe, less efficient solution that we’re stuck with for another 10 years or so 😭 meanwhile the population out west keeps growing.
I was a 15 year old in art class when the Wahine Interisland Ferry foundered on Barretts Reef in Wellington Harbour. 10 July 1968. It was like the NZ equivalent of the Twin Towers and the population was watching a horrible disaster unfolding before our eyes. 51 people died but one little boy didn't. His mother had other children to care for but did her best in horrific circumstances. This young boy was brain damaged as a result and I can recall seeing him with his Mum in a coffee bar where one waitress had a special communication with the child. He did eventually succumb to his brain injury. It looks like just a matter of time before we experience another Wahine disaster, which less lizard thinking by the present regime, would have avoided. They had no mandate for this, and it will result in more air travel.
I was moved by the wisdom of Dr Richard Wong She who was included in this years Kings birthday honours.
I quote from RNZ article dd 5 June 2023
King's Birthday Honours: Doctors, journalist and former mayor among Kiwis recognised.
Consultant Plastic Surgeon Dr Richard Wong She, Burn Service Clinical Leader, Plastic & Burn Surgeon; Clinical Leader for Burns. Works at Auckland's Middlemore Hospital.
Made a Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit for his services to burn care.
"I never expected anything like this. I never expected my work to actually ever be acknowledged in this way and it's truly humbling to have that done so."
His work helping victims of the Whakaari/White Island tragedy was a focal point for the honour - but said a lot of work had come before that, including helping set up the National Burns Centre and making sure world-class care could be given.
"I have also been involved in the training of the next generation of plastic surgeons, so, if you put all of that together, suddenly we were in the best possible position to care for the patients that came from the Whakaari incident."
Wong She said people with burns to 30 percent of their body were automatically referred to his team.
With burns of that size, he said they were life-threatening so he and his team were fighting to keep a person alive.
"But more than that, we are fighting to give them a life worth living by preserving as much function and form as we can.
"A lot of my colleagues, and indeed the world, is fixated on monetary compensation but there are some things which money can't buy and the gratitude and the joy you get from keeping someone not only alive, but getting back to life, is priceless and it's wonderful to be able to have that goal recognised in this way and I am truly humbled.
"I am part of a team. Any failure is totally mine and every success is the entire teams so in accepting this reward I am accepting on behalf of the team."
End quote.
Preparedness is our best strategy, our best defence - It's also the moral choice.
Accidentally on purpose is to invite disaster.
I would like every one of our politicians to adopt Dr Richard Wong She's attitude.
Decent state-owned ferries seem a very basic bit of NZ infrastructure, safe reliable connectivity between the islands for goods and decent greenish public transport for many functions including national and international tourism.
There must be transparency and accountability for costs of course. (Corin's talk with Peter Reidy of Kiwirail this morning interesting.)
The current ferries seem so unsafe and utterly unsuited to Cook Strait conditions there feels a Russian roulette quality to going board unless totally calm conditions. The Jan 28 incident exposed much.
Just a thought.. Could some deal with Bluebridge be behind this decision?
Degrowth is a planned reduction in energy and material throughput with a specific focus on wellbeing for all and living within planetary boundaries. Emphasis on planned.
This decision is more akin to living in an increasingly postgrowth world - as in we can't sustain growth and it falters in an unplanned and ah hoc way because we are facing limits to growth.
I'd appreciate if you could correct this Bernard 🙏
Thanks Peri. Agreed it's not a conscious de-growth plan, either on the part of humans or the planet. But it seems to be happening nevertheless. I'd prefer a planned descent. Not sure I'm powerful enough to correct this on my own... :)
Not to put a too finer point on it. But degrowth would be more like canceling road building projects to actually build the low emissions ferry project- providing for low emissions transport is a basic need. Restoring rail and ferry connections would be core to a degrowth policy platform
Agreed. Great way to put it. Cheers
Or maybe it is a realisation that a lot of our "growth" is consumption driven not productivity driven - all this population growth hasn't being making NZ more productive where it counts - in transactions across the border - it has been having the opposite effect. Our trade deficit is regularly described in terms of percent of GDP but that is a meaningless comparator and makes it look less bad than it is - what is crucially important is the state of our current account - which is perennially in the negative.
.... from Stats NZ ...
New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted current account balance was a $7.4 billion deficit in the September 2023 quarter, $396 million wider than the June 2023 quarter deficit.
The widening of the seasonally adjusted current account deficit was mainly due to:
$633 million widening of the goods deficit
$292 million widening of the primary income deficit
$50 million widening of the secondary income deficit.
The widening of the seasonally adjusted current account deficit was partly offset by a $579 million narrowing of the services deficit.
So we are chronically spending more than we earn!!! To see where this takes us you only need to relate that back to your own personal situation - if you are spending 10% more than you are earning every year you end up broke and on the street.
Also we need to reconsider what is actually meant by the term "inflation" - it actually refers to the money supply getting ahead of demand for money - ie money printing has caused too much to be released into the economy - we had a burst of this during Covid lockdown.
Prices going up because of scarcity (or devaluation of our currency) increasing the cost of essentials such as petrol/food/energy is not inflation - is the market at work - it is not inflation - putting interest rates up to counter the "inflationary" effect of this is an act of simple stupidity - it just exacerbates the economic impact of the cost increases and causes considerable economic harm and adds substantially to the "rate of inflation".
Except the government's finances are different to household finances because the government is a currency issuer and all households (and local government) are currency users.
That is correct but all internal "economic" activity creates some demand for increased "external" economic activity - new cars/fuel/etc - that is why up until the Douglas/Lange reforms NZ had import controls/licencing to limit the amount of spending that seeped out of the domestic economy - China still runs this sort of regime - and oddly is a net exporter (creditor) where as we have become net importers (debtors)
Thank you for this. I love the productivity vs consumption growth distinction. This is where the buying and selling of houses / farms to each other for more money hasn’t helped us at all.
Question, where does govt. borrowing fit into this. If a govt borrowed & spent more more locally would that increase the deficit
?
Suspect that because the “t” word (train) was part of the proposal it would have been upsetting to National but more importantly more years of the expensive and unreliable service from the ageing fleet, plus the impact on NZ’s emissions profile of not having the improvement to inter island rail transport.
The petulant “Ferrari” quote reveals the preference for 2nd hand infrastructure which has much higher long term costs - weak and unstable thinking
No, Bernard, having our infrastructure and societal links fail is not degrowth, it’s destruction and destabilization of our economy and society. Strengthening our investments as a SOCIETY is the type of “development” Amartya Sen says leads to “freedom”. Degrowth requires us to limit INDIVIDUALS unnecessarily driving diesel utes in town and flying to the moon.
I'm pretty sure many in this Cabinet (With its sole single South Island representative) think that NZ ends at Wellington... And maybe Queenstown is a rich mans island they can fly into for a little fun. This is critical infrastructure that we in the South rely on. If it falls over in the coming years, not only will it be on National, but it will be the South that is impacted the hardest.
Queenstown is indeed a 'rich mans' island' but you've got to boil the water before you can drink it & then ignore the essential workers sleeping in their cars because Queenstown has no affordable rentals. How third world are we?
Very good point. But at least the landlords are going to get a tax cut, which is definitely going to be passed through to renters 😢
"...which is definitely going to be passed through to renters"
I presume you are being sarcastic.
I'm unclear on what mechanism this will actually limit population growth. It seems that the more likely outcome is the population growth is unaddressed and we're left with continually degrading level of service from our infrastructure.
@Bernard - I completely agree with Peri, this decision is anything but degrowth.
It is short-term thinking at its finest, highly likely to compromise the wellbeing of citizens (by increasing the likelihood of a major maritime disaster, amongst other things), and compromise the environmental health of a unique marine habitat in the Marlborough Sounds, (by keeping the current fleet of ageing & polluting ferries limping along, or replacing them with a different set of old shitbox ships).
But hey, I guess they have to pay for the tax breaks & new 4-lane highways somehow.
I'd be grateful for a greater population cohort that got their info from The Kaka rather than the likes of talkback, TV news. Any way you can do it? what about a time lapse access, say after a week or two the articles are free?
Yes Bernard because I believe your The K ākā must be available for as many people to read and listen to. There’s far too much shallow right wing commentators in the journalist arena. Your analysis and commitment to housing poverty and Climate change is paramount now with a government that is callous out of touch and simply dangerous undoing all the progress in the last six years taking Aotearoa back to the last century.
If only we treated natural resources with the respect that they deserve - intelligent materials that were billions of years in the making.
There is zero justification to destroy the natural world so that individuals might have whatever their foolish hearts desire.
There is however a fundamental human requirement that is being expressed more widely, more urgently now than ever before - the very real need to live in caring communities where precious resources are spent wisely.
How great would it be - if we could rethink our propensity to INDIVIDUALLY consume natural resources like they are trash?
Because THEN building sustainable and BOTH ecologically and economically sound infrastructure - thereby opting to live in stronger cohesive communities - becomes a no brainer.
This government has clearly missed the boat.
Or did they jump ship?
Either way, lucky for us, there's a lifecraft scheduled for 2026
Hopefully, before that!
I was thinking. Maybe we can hope Winston does what he has always done before. Back out of coalitions. Now that, hopefully, that would mean an election. I can’t imagine either the Maori party or Act wanting each other to be in government with them.. so go Winston go.
So should we continue to progress poorly planned programmes that blow out even before they are commenced? Bad decisions being made need some consideration.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/504638/nz-upgrade-shovel-ready-programmes-lacked-transparency-and-rigour-auditor-general
At what point do we say so many infrastructure programmes were poorly done and focussed on the political theater (catchy Ardern titles but lack of delivery) that some of these decisions should not be allowed to touch Ministers hands.
At what point do we say - it's time to re-establish The New Zealand Ministry of Works and Development?
For a moment there, Bernard, I thought this might be a bit of satire. Seems a bit more like magical thinking if you expect degrowth from this. As others have commented, the growth in population will continue but we will have just missed the boat on the infrastructure.
It’s another one of those present-day cost saving measures that don’t age well... like National cancelling the busway on the North Western Motorway in Auckland when they upgraded it. Now we have a rather unsafe, less efficient solution that we’re stuck with for another 10 years or so 😭 meanwhile the population out west keeps growing.
I was a 15 year old in art class when the Wahine Interisland Ferry foundered on Barretts Reef in Wellington Harbour. 10 July 1968. It was like the NZ equivalent of the Twin Towers and the population was watching a horrible disaster unfolding before our eyes. 51 people died but one little boy didn't. His mother had other children to care for but did her best in horrific circumstances. This young boy was brain damaged as a result and I can recall seeing him with his Mum in a coffee bar where one waitress had a special communication with the child. He did eventually succumb to his brain injury. It looks like just a matter of time before we experience another Wahine disaster, which less lizard thinking by the present regime, would have avoided. They had no mandate for this, and it will result in more air travel.
I agree with you, Beverly.
I was moved by the wisdom of Dr Richard Wong She who was included in this years Kings birthday honours.
I quote from RNZ article dd 5 June 2023
King's Birthday Honours: Doctors, journalist and former mayor among Kiwis recognised.
Consultant Plastic Surgeon Dr Richard Wong She, Burn Service Clinical Leader, Plastic & Burn Surgeon; Clinical Leader for Burns. Works at Auckland's Middlemore Hospital.
Made a Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit for his services to burn care.
"I never expected anything like this. I never expected my work to actually ever be acknowledged in this way and it's truly humbling to have that done so."
His work helping victims of the Whakaari/White Island tragedy was a focal point for the honour - but said a lot of work had come before that, including helping set up the National Burns Centre and making sure world-class care could be given.
"I have also been involved in the training of the next generation of plastic surgeons, so, if you put all of that together, suddenly we were in the best possible position to care for the patients that came from the Whakaari incident."
Wong She said people with burns to 30 percent of their body were automatically referred to his team.
With burns of that size, he said they were life-threatening so he and his team were fighting to keep a person alive.
"But more than that, we are fighting to give them a life worth living by preserving as much function and form as we can.
"A lot of my colleagues, and indeed the world, is fixated on monetary compensation but there are some things which money can't buy and the gratitude and the joy you get from keeping someone not only alive, but getting back to life, is priceless and it's wonderful to be able to have that goal recognised in this way and I am truly humbled.
"I am part of a team. Any failure is totally mine and every success is the entire teams so in accepting this reward I am accepting on behalf of the team."
End quote.
Preparedness is our best strategy, our best defence - It's also the moral choice.
Accidentally on purpose is to invite disaster.
I would like every one of our politicians to adopt Dr Richard Wong She's attitude.
THAT is a boot camp worth signing up for.
Decent state-owned ferries seem a very basic bit of NZ infrastructure, safe reliable connectivity between the islands for goods and decent greenish public transport for many functions including national and international tourism.
There must be transparency and accountability for costs of course. (Corin's talk with Peter Reidy of Kiwirail this morning interesting.)
The current ferries seem so unsafe and utterly unsuited to Cook Strait conditions there feels a Russian roulette quality to going board unless totally calm conditions. The Jan 28 incident exposed much.
Just a thought.. Could some deal with Bluebridge be behind this decision?
More likely the road lobby or even AirNZ given its links with the new government
Is it time to put up a Liz Truss lettuce for this administration?