Labour eases migration settings for third time in five months in attempt to juice population & GDP growth in a way that lowers inflation and interest rates, but doesn't build the infrastructure first
And employers of RSE people wonder why they can't get kiwis to do the work. Maybe it is because the kiwis know they'll be treated as modern slaves and go "yeah, nah".
It is not just a few bad apples in the RSE employers. It is the opposite: - they are all bad apples except for a few good apples.
Great analysis Bernard, especially the immigration trilemma. Two minor corrections:
1. Nurses are already on tier 2 of the Green List (aka work to residence), and are being moved to tier 1 (aka straight to residence).
2. ECE and secondary teachers are also already on tier 2 - primary teachers are being added.
I'm not sure that there will be as much impact as people think from the changes. A lot of those sectors and occupations were eligible for work and residence visas already through one pathway or another - offering simplified pathways is nice, but it's not that hard currently for most of those roles to get a work visa as long as they are paid median wage.
Thanks Bernard. Your graphs (unless my eyes have been deceiving me) don't really show the infrastructure spend year by year in New Zealand. Can you show that? I don't disagree with you in the fact that increased taxes are required to increase infrastructure which we need, but the government claims that it is markedly increased, along with greatly increased spend on items such as apprenticeships.
Secondly, New Zealand wages do not compare well with Australia. No matter what infrastructure is available here, that will remain a fact, until it is no longer the case that generally wages are higher in Australia. It doesn't matter whether our infrastructure is adequate or not. If a worker can immediately get a wage increase of 25 - 30% by just moving across the Tasman, why wouldn't they? Don't you think the wage disparity plays a more important part than infrastructure?
Government is not fit for purpose. They really just deprive people of their rights under the Bill of Rights and law and try to run everything both cheaply and nastily. Also it is absolutely clear there is no best practise aimed for in any public service just negligence and lack of responsibility. A big old farce and insult to citizens. There is no accountability whatsoever and we wonder why children and youth behave in an uncivilised way. If the RBNZ can be allowed to force us into recession and if the Government keeps pushing the costs we pay tax for onto individuals it’s all going to crack up. All off the backs of unpaid and cheap labour. People who effectively have no rights or access to Justice. A two tiered system. It’s so bad as to have no credibility whatsoever after the wicked things they do to a large proportion and refuse to acknowledge. Some of us know our rights against what really are just criminal actions. Too many egomaniacs not working for the countries collective or individual(s) good. Pathetic to see it so clearly. But at least we can see it now how many excuses they make and how they mismanage and cover up. National will be in the hot seat next year at this rate and what a debacle that will be too. No ideas whatsoever to deal with this so far and even closer to big business if that’s even possible given the profits they’ve made and are making from Government over the pandemic being given money hand over fist while limiting the populations access to services and rights and our own money and time.
Scariest explanation of NZ dilemma written with clarity have read for a very long time. Thank you for also writing for 'young people without land owning parents'. I think about them often but have no idea how to even the odds for them. Perhaps you have some thoughts in that direction.
And this is why the Spatial Planning Bill is pointless. How can NZ plan for how and where to create new communities (and necessary pipes, roads, schools, hospitals etc.) on a 30 year horizon when successive governments continue to reactively ease or tighten immigration settings?
So the election choice is a illlusion because all the parties capable of 5pc protect this status quo.
Do you think our cities will end up like Johannesburg? I'm thinking about installing a perimeter fence at the moment and I'm wondering if I should leave space for some barbed wire.
I've thought a lot over the years about stability vs mobility and I'm starting to wonder if it matters. Due to WW2 heaps and heaps of war brides set out on ships to wherever their soldier husbands came from - often with first babies of which i was one. I grew up in little Motueka and their were various people from different parts of Britain and Europe who came out and made their homes there. I've always thought it made our town more interesting. I always tried to create some stability but that is not how things went. Hence my adult families all settled overseas as they follow more their granddad's model of having overseas wives. I left my little village to go to the city when I got to 17 as was the norm. A small scale of what my kids have now done. Heaps of people of the world have no safe place to be so if they've got skills we need, maybe that is our function - to be a safe place for people.
However, I do not understand why no government seems to have the guts to tax wealth. That is inexcusable negligence.
And houses - why do they have to be so big? - most people have smaller families. When we had more children, we had smaller houses. You said something that puzzled me Bernard. I replayed it about 5 times to see if I'd heard properly - re housing immigrants: that they may not be 'so choosy about where they live and less worried about the housing costs'. i can't figure what that means about a) New Zealanders and b) immigrants.
Meanwhile talented Kiwi School leavers can not get into Medical school, Nurses have to pay to train (It used to be free on the job training) Apprentices have to pay Tertiary fees for their training. Student loans should be rebated for every year they work in New Zealand. Instead, Ex students who go overseas, never to return, do not need to repay their student loan.
And employers of RSE people wonder why they can't get kiwis to do the work. Maybe it is because the kiwis know they'll be treated as modern slaves and go "yeah, nah".
It is not just a few bad apples in the RSE employers. It is the opposite: - they are all bad apples except for a few good apples.
Great analysis Bernard, especially the immigration trilemma. Two minor corrections:
1. Nurses are already on tier 2 of the Green List (aka work to residence), and are being moved to tier 1 (aka straight to residence).
2. ECE and secondary teachers are also already on tier 2 - primary teachers are being added.
I'm not sure that there will be as much impact as people think from the changes. A lot of those sectors and occupations were eligible for work and residence visas already through one pathway or another - offering simplified pathways is nice, but it's not that hard currently for most of those roles to get a work visa as long as they are paid median wage.
Bernard...you are definitely off the PM’s Christmas and birthday list.
He see she was caught off mic saying something rather fitting about Davis S for a second I thought it was going to be your name in the news!!🤭🤭
Release asap please Bernard.
Patrick Medlicott
Release asap please Bernard.
Patrick Medlicott
Thanks Bernard. Your graphs (unless my eyes have been deceiving me) don't really show the infrastructure spend year by year in New Zealand. Can you show that? I don't disagree with you in the fact that increased taxes are required to increase infrastructure which we need, but the government claims that it is markedly increased, along with greatly increased spend on items such as apprenticeships.
Secondly, New Zealand wages do not compare well with Australia. No matter what infrastructure is available here, that will remain a fact, until it is no longer the case that generally wages are higher in Australia. It doesn't matter whether our infrastructure is adequate or not. If a worker can immediately get a wage increase of 25 - 30% by just moving across the Tasman, why wouldn't they? Don't you think the wage disparity plays a more important part than infrastructure?
Government is not fit for purpose. They really just deprive people of their rights under the Bill of Rights and law and try to run everything both cheaply and nastily. Also it is absolutely clear there is no best practise aimed for in any public service just negligence and lack of responsibility. A big old farce and insult to citizens. There is no accountability whatsoever and we wonder why children and youth behave in an uncivilised way. If the RBNZ can be allowed to force us into recession and if the Government keeps pushing the costs we pay tax for onto individuals it’s all going to crack up. All off the backs of unpaid and cheap labour. People who effectively have no rights or access to Justice. A two tiered system. It’s so bad as to have no credibility whatsoever after the wicked things they do to a large proportion and refuse to acknowledge. Some of us know our rights against what really are just criminal actions. Too many egomaniacs not working for the countries collective or individual(s) good. Pathetic to see it so clearly. But at least we can see it now how many excuses they make and how they mismanage and cover up. National will be in the hot seat next year at this rate and what a debacle that will be too. No ideas whatsoever to deal with this so far and even closer to big business if that’s even possible given the profits they’ve made and are making from Government over the pandemic being given money hand over fist while limiting the populations access to services and rights and our own money and time.
Scariest explanation of NZ dilemma written with clarity have read for a very long time. Thank you for also writing for 'young people without land owning parents'. I think about them often but have no idea how to even the odds for them. Perhaps you have some thoughts in that direction.
And this is why the Spatial Planning Bill is pointless. How can NZ plan for how and where to create new communities (and necessary pipes, roads, schools, hospitals etc.) on a 30 year horizon when successive governments continue to reactively ease or tighten immigration settings?
Great work Bernard, please share this with non paying subscribers.
Just wait for the Nats to tighten their belts next year. We'll be going backwards even faster with low infrastructure spending.
So the election choice is a illlusion because all the parties capable of 5pc protect this status quo.
Do you think our cities will end up like Johannesburg? I'm thinking about installing a perimeter fence at the moment and I'm wondering if I should leave space for some barbed wire.
I've thought a lot over the years about stability vs mobility and I'm starting to wonder if it matters. Due to WW2 heaps and heaps of war brides set out on ships to wherever their soldier husbands came from - often with first babies of which i was one. I grew up in little Motueka and their were various people from different parts of Britain and Europe who came out and made their homes there. I've always thought it made our town more interesting. I always tried to create some stability but that is not how things went. Hence my adult families all settled overseas as they follow more their granddad's model of having overseas wives. I left my little village to go to the city when I got to 17 as was the norm. A small scale of what my kids have now done. Heaps of people of the world have no safe place to be so if they've got skills we need, maybe that is our function - to be a safe place for people.
However, I do not understand why no government seems to have the guts to tax wealth. That is inexcusable negligence.
And houses - why do they have to be so big? - most people have smaller families. When we had more children, we had smaller houses. You said something that puzzled me Bernard. I replayed it about 5 times to see if I'd heard properly - re housing immigrants: that they may not be 'so choosy about where they live and less worried about the housing costs'. i can't figure what that means about a) New Zealanders and b) immigrants.
This is a very good deep dive!
Please open it up.
Thank you.
Meanwhile talented Kiwi School leavers can not get into Medical school, Nurses have to pay to train (It used to be free on the job training) Apprentices have to pay Tertiary fees for their training. Student loans should be rebated for every year they work in New Zealand. Instead, Ex students who go overseas, never to return, do not need to repay their student loan.