Curia & 1News polls confirm Talbot Mills poll putting Opposition ahead of National-ACT-NZ First, while Luxon's popularity falls & voters see NZ on wrong track; Luxon & Seymour at loggerheads
Bernard - would you consider not reporting on Curia polls, even if other outlets do? Given their track record I'm not sure we can consider them a reliable source (even if I might like the trend in this case).
Thanks Quentin. I've seen the complaints about Curia and its exit from the industry body. I don't cover their one-off push-polls, but I think their simple party/PM/right track wrong track are worth reporting, as they're long running, consistent and at least as wrong/right as the other ones. But I always put it in context with others. It's also the one National uses, so it generates its own weather in a way. Can't ignore it, but not something to lead a major change story.
How long will the citizens of New Zealand remain so tribally blind as to let the political class blame the clear systemic financial failure of our nation upon only the last mob that was in Government.
While all of Parliament, the Government, the opposition, the backroom 'Officials' treat like an elephant in the room the ongoing 200 odd year systemic fraud being committed against us by our frenemy Euro/American privately owned investment banks, leading to the systemic financial failure of our nation, no matter who has been in Government.
The fraud has been simple, the foreign privately owned investment banks have deliberately loaned us more of their book entry credit in sectors than they knew we could service as a whole, to orchestrate our excess credit leveraged insolvency, in order to force us to sell our necessities of life to corporations they also co-own in order to make economic slaves of us.
Bernard, please stop reporting Curia polls. It demeans the status of other polls - others are abiding by external research protocols, but getting no credit for that.
Fair to challenge Curia, especially on the. one-off push polls. But a long-running party/preferred PM poll is a rare thing. Aside from Roy Morgan (!), all we have is Talbot Mills (not publicly released consistently) and 1News Verian. It's something, even if worth slathering in caveats.
Bernard, the long running data series you refer to is a distraction. It remains data from a compromised source, and quoting it provides Curia with credibility they do not deserve.
In effect what you are saying is that data has value. It frames their polling as having legitimacy, and this will be unconsciously washed over into other data they publish. And some of that is very compromised.
Here’s a summary of a critique I made recently
“When “polling” becomes framing messaging and not research.
Lets start with the Curia polling.
Curia is no longer part of the Research Association of New Zealand. They "resigned", but according to those in the know, only because they were about to be censured and probably removed for breaching industry standards.
The industry standards they breached related amongst other things to asking leading questions.
A leading question is a question asked using language designed to elicit a specific answer.
Sound familiar? It should be.
In simple terms it’s framing a research question to get the answer you want.
In December 2024 they asked this question
“I want New Zealand to honour the Treaty of Waitangi, but only if it can do so in a way that doesn't undermine fundamental human rights such as equality of suffrage where all votes have roughly equal power.”
It presents a false dichotomy. It frames a choice about either honouring the Treaty or upholding human rights. While these choices are not mutually exclusive, the question structure implicitly suggests they are.
And it promotes “scepticism”. The use of the phrase “only if” is a trigger phrase that signals conditional agreement. Typically it is used to signal conditional uncertainty. In this case it signals scepticism towards current Treaty interpretations and their compatibility with human rights. However no context for this, nor any examples of pro’s or con’s, agreement or disagreement options is provided.
It oversimplifies. It does not provide any context around the complex legal and historical surrounding the Treaty and its modern interpretation. In the absence of this, it is not clear nor can it be clear what is the context within which respondents are saying “yes” or “no”. So we don’t actually know what those answers mean.
In short it is bad research. And that’s because its goal is to generate statistic that can be used for framing. It’s not real.
We are set to have a badly behaved child as deputy PM. A three-year-old having regular temper tantrums in the supermarket because they don't get their own way. Yesterday's stoush with Parliamentary Security over driving up the steps of parliament was the next of his spoilt brat, entitled expressions. Vandal. ...Backing a 'could be murderer' with appalling life choices, well...?! It speaks to his values.
I'm betting that was a distraction tactic for the evening news cycle given Seymour knew the news that day would be dominated by him backing Polkinghorn (not the best look) and the expected poor TV1 polling for ACT/NACT.
Interesting how the Tim Jago news seems to get flushed out of the news cycle very quickly whereas if that had been Labour or the Greens it would last for weeks
Yes, I picked the distraction thinking what is he trying to get us to turn away from. This is a chance for the bald buffoon to grow a pair, unfortunately he is cut from similar cloth to Seymore, so no hope that Gnats will discipline Act.
However the longer this goes on, the worse they look and are rapidly becoming un-electable.
Is the reason US interest rates dictate our interest rates because the present basis of a demonstrable amount of our money supply, after all is said and done, is provided as debt owed to the same Euro/American Primary Bond Dealer, Privately Owned Investment Banks (Layer above commercial banks with the loan it forward money creation powers) as that of America and most of the Western world?
I don’t understand how the video with the anaesthetist is relevant, she appears to be speaking to clinicians on some subjects? Perhaps it’s me. Can’t believe Luxflakes bringing in failed immigration rules!
Labour and Greens and Maori parties aren't doing anything. Nats policies are losing them support and increasing unemployment. No needed additional investment in health, infrastructure and education!! What are they thinking 🤔???
Yet our population continues to grow because of govt policy of allowing additional humans to live here. Is this the growth growth growth???
Surely the govt needs to invest additional funds at the increasing population rate as a minimum.
We aren't an airline where you can cut costs and yet still fulfill your core function. Politicians need to get their hands dirty and make and deliver, on time, nutritious school lunches!
Act's and National's aim is to privatise the health system. therefore they are deliberately damaging the public health system as part of their strategy to achieve their privatisation aim/goal/intent.
Robert MacCulloch's article is clear that this government is being advised by Atlas Network member NZ Initiative (nee Business Roundtable). Another reason I suppose that NZ Initiative is in full damage control - running the line that linking the Atlas Network and NZ Initiative is pure conspiracy theory.
Am glad Anne Salmond wrote this up so clearly. Even a brief look at Mont Pelerin Society that I checked out on Wikipedia a couple of years ago - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mont_Pelerin_Society#Other_notable_participants - makes obvious what the 1984 NZ 'coup' was about and what is having a grand push in the West now. I hope plenty of people read it.
Surely both are equally responsible for the mess the coalition is in? Willis has no idea how to keep the economy growing - witness the cancellation of.....everything!
Stanford comes across as cruel, cynical and uncaring.
Crikey, that Te Whatu Ora / Health NZ presentation was a shocker. The new boss is completely tone deaf with staff who are about to be pushed over board being told "we're all in this together". And then the meaningless drivel with org charts, which effectively is just shuffling the deck chairs as the good ship HNZ goes under from a lack of resources.
I also noticed some of language was almost Trumpian ... "a beautiful thing" etc and there was a reference to the bible.
Maybe she was a good clinician but that has not translated into being an effective leader of people.
Hey Bernard, a great summary for the day. I have a question for you... you often mention that "ideological" concepts are driving behavior from the current National led government for the past 18 months or so. Could you please do a summary on what these are and why they have come to be within the National government and now dominate their decisions? Especially in the face of what most would consider reason. Cheers
A few comments back Andrew Liddell gave a link to a piece Anne Salmond wrote for Newsroom. It clarifies the ideology driving decisions and how reason has nothing to do with it - at least not what looks like reason to most of us!
Hi Bernard, I think we are missing some education on climate change and its relationship to the cost of living, hence why people are voting for right-wing governments who promise to reduce the cost of living when they are pedalling more coal, gas etc
The cost of living will never be as cheap as it is today. Insurance as climate event severity increases will cost more, councils rates will go up as they have to design for 1 in 1000 year events and have to repair the damage climate events cause, and food scarcity will increase with India stopping exporting rice due to climate events, cost of cocoa and coffee increasing due to floods and so on. So, the governments who promise they can reduce costs are plainly lying. We are now producing 7% less food due to climate events while our population is growing.
People also need to be aware that the atmosphere holds 5% more water for every degree we go up. What is interesting is that climate scientists are actually seeing a 17-23 % increase in water in the atmosphere. So if we go another degree in the next 20 years, and the amount of water in the atmosphere doubles, how will NZ cope with 70% of houses being on flat land? In some places, Queensland just had 2000mm (2 metres) of rain in a week. It would be interesting to get Katherine's view on this.
All this does not bode well for NZs future, but we have people voting all around the world for right-wing governments. Australia is likely going to vote for its right-wing government, whose plan is to go nuclear and keep the coal power plants going for the next 25 years, even though they have 4 million homes with solar and dumping powering each day in VIC, QLD and NSW. Again, the cost of living is why the change of government will happen, same as America, etc. If these trends continue, humanity will continue to vote for more coal, gas, oil, etc.
How do we educate people that ignoring climate change equals a higher cost of living and that doubling the amount of rain in the near future will destroy everything in its path?
Forced sales at knockdown prices. Won’t happen as defaults very low and banks have plenty of profits and capital. Or a splurge of credit that unleashes a lot of sellers from their psychological shackles of their 2022 CVs.
Maybe it's time for Health NZ to go back and look at the medical IT system in the South Island. it's up and running and effective. Maybe sacking staff who are duplicating a system (which could easily be considered) that obviously works might not be silly.
I've always thought it was strange that health IT systems in the South Island can securely share clinical data, but the same systems in the NI can't. Maybe let the SI take over the North ?
Bernard - would you consider not reporting on Curia polls, even if other outlets do? Given their track record I'm not sure we can consider them a reliable source (even if I might like the trend in this case).
Thanks Quentin. I've seen the complaints about Curia and its exit from the industry body. I don't cover their one-off push-polls, but I think their simple party/PM/right track wrong track are worth reporting, as they're long running, consistent and at least as wrong/right as the other ones. But I always put it in context with others. It's also the one National uses, so it generates its own weather in a way. Can't ignore it, but not something to lead a major change story.
How long will the citizens of New Zealand remain so tribally blind as to let the political class blame the clear systemic financial failure of our nation upon only the last mob that was in Government.
While all of Parliament, the Government, the opposition, the backroom 'Officials' treat like an elephant in the room the ongoing 200 odd year systemic fraud being committed against us by our frenemy Euro/American privately owned investment banks, leading to the systemic financial failure of our nation, no matter who has been in Government.
The fraud has been simple, the foreign privately owned investment banks have deliberately loaned us more of their book entry credit in sectors than they knew we could service as a whole, to orchestrate our excess credit leveraged insolvency, in order to force us to sell our necessities of life to corporations they also co-own in order to make economic slaves of us.
Bernard, please stop reporting Curia polls. It demeans the status of other polls - others are abiding by external research protocols, but getting no credit for that.
Fair to challenge Curia, especially on the. one-off push polls. But a long-running party/preferred PM poll is a rare thing. Aside from Roy Morgan (!), all we have is Talbot Mills (not publicly released consistently) and 1News Verian. It's something, even if worth slathering in caveats.
Ka pai ... but make the caveats crystal clear and shout them out, loudly ...
100%.
Bernard, the long running data series you refer to is a distraction. It remains data from a compromised source, and quoting it provides Curia with credibility they do not deserve.
In effect what you are saying is that data has value. It frames their polling as having legitimacy, and this will be unconsciously washed over into other data they publish. And some of that is very compromised.
Here’s a summary of a critique I made recently
“When “polling” becomes framing messaging and not research.
Lets start with the Curia polling.
Curia is no longer part of the Research Association of New Zealand. They "resigned", but according to those in the know, only because they were about to be censured and probably removed for breaching industry standards.
The industry standards they breached related amongst other things to asking leading questions.
A leading question is a question asked using language designed to elicit a specific answer.
Sound familiar? It should be.
In simple terms it’s framing a research question to get the answer you want.
In December 2024 they asked this question
“I want New Zealand to honour the Treaty of Waitangi, but only if it can do so in a way that doesn't undermine fundamental human rights such as equality of suffrage where all votes have roughly equal power.”
It presents a false dichotomy. It frames a choice about either honouring the Treaty or upholding human rights. While these choices are not mutually exclusive, the question structure implicitly suggests they are.
And it promotes “scepticism”. The use of the phrase “only if” is a trigger phrase that signals conditional agreement. Typically it is used to signal conditional uncertainty. In this case it signals scepticism towards current Treaty interpretations and their compatibility with human rights. However no context for this, nor any examples of pro’s or con’s, agreement or disagreement options is provided.
It oversimplifies. It does not provide any context around the complex legal and historical surrounding the Treaty and its modern interpretation. In the absence of this, it is not clear nor can it be clear what is the context within which respondents are saying “yes” or “no”. So we don’t actually know what those answers mean.
In short it is bad research. And that’s because its goal is to generate statistic that can be used for framing. It’s not real.
We are set to have a badly behaved child as deputy PM. A three-year-old having regular temper tantrums in the supermarket because they don't get their own way. Yesterday's stoush with Parliamentary Security over driving up the steps of parliament was the next of his spoilt brat, entitled expressions. Vandal. ...Backing a 'could be murderer' with appalling life choices, well...?! It speaks to his values.
I'm betting that was a distraction tactic for the evening news cycle given Seymour knew the news that day would be dominated by him backing Polkinghorn (not the best look) and the expected poor TV1 polling for ACT/NACT.
Interesting how the Tim Jago news seems to get flushed out of the news cycle very quickly whereas if that had been Labour or the Greens it would last for weeks
And not even an original distraction.
Yes, I picked the distraction thinking what is he trying to get us to turn away from. This is a chance for the bald buffoon to grow a pair, unfortunately he is cut from similar cloth to Seymore, so no hope that Gnats will discipline Act.
However the longer this goes on, the worse they look and are rapidly becoming un-electable.
Hi Bernard,
Is the reason US interest rates dictate our interest rates because the present basis of a demonstrable amount of our money supply, after all is said and done, is provided as debt owed to the same Euro/American Primary Bond Dealer, Privately Owned Investment Banks (Layer above commercial banks with the loan it forward money creation powers) as that of America and most of the Western world?
I don’t understand how the video with the anaesthetist is relevant, she appears to be speaking to clinicians on some subjects? Perhaps it’s me. Can’t believe Luxflakes bringing in failed immigration rules!
She's no longer working clinically, has been pushed into a management role overseeing IT operations/people/$
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold...
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all convictions, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
In response to Mere Anarchy we can strive to be informed of reality, at least.
A Kaka a Day is a good foundation.
And Professor McCulloch’s OpEd in todays Post is a great insight into the vacuous dogma of this Govt. Worth buying a Post to read it, in my opinion.
May its ripples be strong and deep!
Labour and Greens and Maori parties aren't doing anything. Nats policies are losing them support and increasing unemployment. No needed additional investment in health, infrastructure and education!! What are they thinking 🤔???
Yet our population continues to grow because of govt policy of allowing additional humans to live here. Is this the growth growth growth???
Surely the govt needs to invest additional funds at the increasing population rate as a minimum.
We aren't an airline where you can cut costs and yet still fulfill your core function. Politicians need to get their hands dirty and make and deliver, on time, nutritious school lunches!
"What are they thinking ???"
Act's and National's aim is to privatise the health system. therefore they are deliberately damaging the public health system as part of their strategy to achieve their privatisation aim/goal/intent.
Robert MacCulloch's article is clear that this government is being advised by Atlas Network member NZ Initiative (nee Business Roundtable). Another reason I suppose that NZ Initiative is in full damage control - running the line that linking the Atlas Network and NZ Initiative is pure conspiracy theory.
I saw your comment on Newsroom. Yes a very weak attempt from Eric Crampton to "both sides" this.
Ask Eric if he has attended Atlas events.
Anne Salmon reports “Eric Crampton, chief economist for the New Zealand Initiative, is a director of the Mont Pelerin Society, for example” in https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/01/21/anne-salmond-hayeks-bastards/
Am glad Anne Salmond wrote this up so clearly. Even a brief look at Mont Pelerin Society that I checked out on Wikipedia a couple of years ago - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mont_Pelerin_Society#Other_notable_participants - makes obvious what the 1984 NZ 'coup' was about and what is having a grand push in the West now. I hope plenty of people read it.
Stanford or Willis to roll Luxon?
Surely both are equally responsible for the mess the coalition is in? Willis has no idea how to keep the economy growing - witness the cancellation of.....everything!
Stanford comes across as cruel, cynical and uncaring.
Yep, Stanford's true colours have definitely revealed themselves over time.
Crikey, that Te Whatu Ora / Health NZ presentation was a shocker. The new boss is completely tone deaf with staff who are about to be pushed over board being told "we're all in this together". And then the meaningless drivel with org charts, which effectively is just shuffling the deck chairs as the good ship HNZ goes under from a lack of resources.
I also noticed some of language was almost Trumpian ... "a beautiful thing" etc and there was a reference to the bible.
Maybe she was a good clinician but that has not translated into being an effective leader of people.
Hey Bernard, a great summary for the day. I have a question for you... you often mention that "ideological" concepts are driving behavior from the current National led government for the past 18 months or so. Could you please do a summary on what these are and why they have come to be within the National government and now dominate their decisions? Especially in the face of what most would consider reason. Cheers
A few comments back Andrew Liddell gave a link to a piece Anne Salmond wrote for Newsroom. It clarifies the ideology driving decisions and how reason has nothing to do with it - at least not what looks like reason to most of us!
https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/01/21/anne-salmond-hayeks-bastards/
Hi Bernard, I think we are missing some education on climate change and its relationship to the cost of living, hence why people are voting for right-wing governments who promise to reduce the cost of living when they are pedalling more coal, gas etc
The cost of living will never be as cheap as it is today. Insurance as climate event severity increases will cost more, councils rates will go up as they have to design for 1 in 1000 year events and have to repair the damage climate events cause, and food scarcity will increase with India stopping exporting rice due to climate events, cost of cocoa and coffee increasing due to floods and so on. So, the governments who promise they can reduce costs are plainly lying. We are now producing 7% less food due to climate events while our population is growing.
People also need to be aware that the atmosphere holds 5% more water for every degree we go up. What is interesting is that climate scientists are actually seeing a 17-23 % increase in water in the atmosphere. So if we go another degree in the next 20 years, and the amount of water in the atmosphere doubles, how will NZ cope with 70% of houses being on flat land? In some places, Queensland just had 2000mm (2 metres) of rain in a week. It would be interesting to get Katherine's view on this.
All this does not bode well for NZs future, but we have people voting all around the world for right-wing governments. Australia is likely going to vote for its right-wing government, whose plan is to go nuclear and keep the coal power plants going for the next 25 years, even though they have 4 million homes with solar and dumping powering each day in VIC, QLD and NSW. Again, the cost of living is why the change of government will happen, same as America, etc. If these trends continue, humanity will continue to vote for more coal, gas, oil, etc.
How do we educate people that ignoring climate change equals a higher cost of living and that doubling the amount of rain in the near future will destroy everything in its path?
"Market cleansing event"... Can you expand on what you mean by this Bernard?
(This sounds like a euphemism)
Forced sales at knockdown prices. Won’t happen as defaults very low and banks have plenty of profits and capital. Or a splurge of credit that unleashes a lot of sellers from their psychological shackles of their 2022 CVs.
Oh got ya, thanks for that. I also had another listen to to your podcast. Yup makes sense.
Maybe it's time for Health NZ to go back and look at the medical IT system in the South Island. it's up and running and effective. Maybe sacking staff who are duplicating a system (which could easily be considered) that obviously works might not be silly.
I've always thought it was strange that health IT systems in the South Island can securely share clinical data, but the same systems in the NI can't. Maybe let the SI take over the North ?
Now you're talking you honey tongued devil!
I’ve opened this up after getting over 100 likes. Many thanks again to paying subscribers.